Basic Materials

Contraction / Nearing Bottom. The industry is currently in a "prolonged downcycle" after a failed recovery in early 2025. The industry is grappling with a "triple threat" of sluggish global demand, structural overcapacity in basic chemicals (polyethylene/aromatics), and high geopolitical uncertainty...

(A high-level synthesis of "Where are we in the cycle?" right now.) Transition / Mixed Outlook. Upstream miners (Gold/Copper) are in a high-margin expansion phase driven by record prices and supply tightness. Downstream producers (Steel) are in a contraction phase, particularly outside the U.S., due...