Gambling.com Group is a high-growth affiliate marketer undergoing a strategic pivot to data services, where the core debate pits near-term operational volatility and high balance sheet risk against the long-term value of a widening moat in a higher-quality, recurring revenue business; our analysis concludes that the market has excessively punished the stock for execution risk, creating a compelling, asymmetric risk/reward profile for a founder-led company at a cyclical trough.
The Investment Rationale: The rationale for a long position is based on a significant dislocation between the market price, which has been punished for near-term operational volatility, and the conservatively estimated intrinsic value of a business successfully pivoting to a higher-quality, recurring-revenue model.
Our Core Variant Perception: Our variant perception is that the market is excessively discounting the stock due to recent guidance cuts and acquisition-related GAAP losses, failing to recognize that the underlying pivot to B2B data services is creating a durable, high-margin business with a widening moat, whose long-term value is being obscured by noise in the legacy operations.
The Nature of the Bet: This is a high-risk, venture-style investment in a disruptive technology platform for the online gambling industry, where the bet is on the company achieving market leadership and future profitability at scale, justifying the current strategic pivot and associated financial risks.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Industry Attractiveness | 4/4 | The company operates in the global online gambling market, which is projected to reach $141.60 billion by 2029, growing at a 6.94% compound annual growth rate. The specific niche (affiliate marketing and data services) is highly differentiated, evidenced by the company's TTM Gross Margin of 93.2%, which is significantly higher than the Tier 1 Peer Median of 45.6%, confirming strong pricing power and the absence of a destructive price war in the high-quality segment. |
| Capital Cycle | 1/4 | The industry is in an Overheating/Peak phase, characterized by aggressive capital deployment aimed at market share capture. The company's 3-year CapEx CAGR (approximately 137%) is growing significantly faster than its 3-year Revenue CAGR (46.0%), driven by heavy M&A and capitalized software development ($1.9 million in 2024). This aggressive capital flow, coupled with management noting that it is currently a "buyer's market" for acquisitions, signals a period of intense competition and potential future oversupply of capacity/traffic. |
| Moat Durability (Early-Stage Hypergrowth Lens) | 3/4 | The moat is currently Narrow but Widening. The core affiliate business is highly vulnerable to external platform risk (Execution-Dependent), evidenced by persistent Google search algorithm issues in 2025 that necessitated a revenue guidance revision. However, the company is aggressively building a structural Data Scale Advantage and Switching Costs through its B2B Sports Data Services (OpticOdds), which grew 300% year-over-year. This strategic pivot, supported by R&D investment (13.8% of revenue TTM), is creating a new, proprietary advantage that is less susceptible to search volatility and boasts superior unit economics (93.2% Gross Margin). |
Part A: The Company & Its Competitive Environment
Core Business Model & Strategy: Gambling.com Group is a performance marketing company that provides digital marketing and data subscription services to the online gambling industry. Historically, the company generated revenue primarily through performance marketing (Cost Per Acquisition and revenue share) by referring online gamblers from its portfolio of branded websites, such as Gambling.com and Bookies.com, to licensed operators. In response to increasing volatility in its core market, management's stated strategy is to transform the company into an integrated marketing and sports data services provider, focusing on growing its high-margin, recurring subscription revenue from its newly acquired consumer (OddsJam) and enterprise (OpticOdds) data platforms.
Key Products & Assets: The company's most significant assets are intangible, centered on its portfolio of over 50 high-quality branded websites and more than 1,800 domain names, including premier brands like Gambling.com, Casinos.com, and Bookies.com. These assets are underpinned by a proprietary technology platform. The strategic importance is rapidly shifting to its new data service assets, RotoWire.com, OddsJam.com, and OpticOdds.com, which provide consumer and enterprise data subscriptions and are designed to build a durable data and technology-based moat. As of fiscal year-end 2024, the company's domain names and related websites were carried on the balance sheet at a value of $108.5 million.
Competitive Landscape: The digital performance marketing space is highly fragmented and competitive. Key rivals include other large affiliate networks like Better Collective and Catena Media. In the rapidly growing sports data segment, the company competes with large, entrenched incumbents such as Sportradar AG and Genius Sports Ltd. In this landscape, Gambling.com is a smaller, more agile competitor attempting to differentiate itself by building a proprietary technology platform and a portfolio of premium, memorable brands. Its ability to maintain a TTM Gross Margin of 93.2%, significantly above the peer median of 45.6%, suggests it competes effectively on quality and differentiation rather than price.
Part B: The Historical Situation
Gambling.com Group's recent history is a story of a successful, high-growth business navigating a high-stakes strategic pivot. The company demonstrated exceptional growth, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 46.0%, culminating in a successful IPO on the Nasdaq in July 2021. Following the IPO, management identified increasing volatility in its core affiliate marketing business, driven by unpredictable changes to Google's search algorithms. In response, the company embarked on an aggressive M&A strategy, acquiring data service platforms like RotoWire and, most significantly, Odds Holdings (OddsJam/OpticOdds) in early 2025.
This pivot fundamentally altered the company's financial profile, shifting it from a net-cash position to a leveraged growth model with total debt increasing from $7.6 million in FY2021 to $88.2 million in the most recent quarter. The transition has been turbulent; operational headwinds in the legacy business, combined with acquisition-related costs, led to two consecutive downward revisions of 2025 guidance. This has caused a collapse in market confidence, with the stock falling over 60% in the past year to trade near its 2-year lows.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Management Narrative Credibility | 2/4 | Management has demonstrated high execution on profitability (89% quarterly EPS hit rate) but has repeatedly failed to meet revenue expectations (56% quarterly revenue hit rate) and recently cut 2025 revenue guidance twice, undermining the credibility of the hypergrowth narrative. |
| Analyst & Sell-Side Conviction | 2/4 | While analysts maintain high price targets (up to $9.00), the recent Q3 2025 guidance cut led to a price target reduction by Jefferies (from $15.00 to $8.00 in August 2025), indicating a loss of faith in the near-term execution. The Q&A is focused on operational risks (Google recovery, contingent payments) rather than the scale of the TAM. |
| Management's Own Conviction (Say vs. Do) | 4/4 | Conviction is extremely high. The CEO, Charles Gillespie, retains a substantial 9.9% ownership stake, demonstrating strong alignment and a lack of selling. Furthermore, management is aggressively executing the strategic pivot by expanding the credit facility to $165.0 M and taking on significant contingent liabilities ($40.0 M due April 2026) to fund the Odds Holdings acquisition, backing their vision with the balance sheet. |
| Buy-Side & Institutional Conviction | 2/4 | Institutional conviction is low and degrading. The quarter ending 2025-09-30 saw net institutional selling of 1,241,693 shares, driven by major reductions (G2 Investment Partners Management LLC selling 54.0% of its stake). While high-speed trading firms like Millennium Management LLC increased their position by 231.9%, the overall trend is one of institutional flight. |
| Overall Market Conviction | 1/4 | Market conviction is extremely low and deteriorating. The stock is in a severe downtrend, trading significantly below both its 50-day ($7.30) and 200-day ($10.75) Simple Moving Averages. The market has punished operational misses severely, evidenced by the -23.13% drop following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement. |
Bull vs. Bear Case Summary
Bull Case Summary:
The strategic pivot to B2B data services is creating a higher-quality business with a widening moat and superior, recurring-revenue economics.
The company is founder-led with significant insider ownership (CEO holds 11.1%), ensuring strong alignment with long-term shareholders.
The stock is deeply oversold after a -23% post-earnings collapse, offering a compelling entry point with +42.8% upside to our fair value estimate.
Bear Case Summary:
High execution risk on the M&A-driven pivot, evidenced by two recent guidance cuts and a material weakness in internal controls over revenue recognition.
The core marketing business, which funds the pivot, faces persistent headwinds from Google algorithm changes, creating a potential "melting ice cube" scenario.
The balance sheet is now leveraged ($80.8M net debt) with large contingent payments due, and the company faces a latent, high-stakes lawsuit tied to its largest acquisition.
Narrative Argument
The Prevailing Market Narrative: The market currently views Gambling.com Group as a broken growth story. The narrative, reflected in the stock's collapse to 2-year lows and high short interest of 11.9% of the float, is that a formerly high-flying affiliate marketer is now struggling with its core business, has taken on dangerous levels of debt for a risky acquisition, and can no longer be trusted to meet its financial targets after two consecutive guidance cuts.
Macro & Industry Context: The company operates with a strong secular tailwind from the global online gambling market, which is projected to grow at a 6.94% CAGR to reach $141.6 billion by 2029. However, the industry is in an "Overheating/Peak" phase of the capital cycle, characterized by aggressive M&A and capital deployment, which acts as a near-term headwind. The company's performance has been demonstrably impacted by industry-specific platform risk from Google's algorithm changes, but its strategic pivot is a direct response to mitigate this dependency. The overall environment is a net tailwind for the thesis, but one that is currently obscured by significant cyclical and operational challenges.
Our Differentiated View: While we agree with the market's assessment of the near-term operational risks, our differentiated view is that the market is fixated on the volatility of the legacy affiliate business and acquisition-related accounting noise, while fundamentally under-pricing the successful creation of a new, higher-quality business. Our analysis shows the strategic pivot to B2B Sports Data Services (OpticOdds) is rapidly gaining traction, with the segment growing over 300% year-over-year. This new business has structurally superior unit economics, evidenced by the company's 93.2% TTM Gross Margin, which is 47.6 percentage points higher than its peer median. This pivot is building a durable moat based on data and switching costs, which the market is currently ignoring.
Conclusion on the Debate: Therefore, while the market's concerns about execution risk and balance sheet leverage are valid, our analysis concludes that the sell-off is an overreaction. The probability of the strategic pivot succeeding and creating a durable, high-margin, recurring-revenue business is being significantly underestimated. This has created a clear mispricing and a favorable asymmetric risk/reward profile for investors with a 12-24 month time horizon.
Our Analytical Edge: Our analytical edge is a focus on underlying unit economics and the strategic value of the new data services segment, which indicates a clear path to creating a higher-quality, defensible business that is being obscured by the market's simplistic focus on legacy business volatility and current-period GAAP losses.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Allocation Skill | 0/4 | The company's strategy is centered on debt-funded acquisitions, a direct violation of the archetype's requirement for capital to be deployed primarily towards internal reinvestment. The company has also engaged in share repurchases, with the 2021 buyback tranche of $2.9 million showing a current return on investment of -58.0%, indicating significant value destruction. |
| Incentive & Ownership Alignment | 2/4 | Alignment is adequate but flawed. Founder ownership is a significant strength, with the CEO and COO collectively holding a meaningful stake (CEO at 9.9%). However, long-term incentives for founders are tied to market capitalization thresholds, a financial metric, rather than the preferred non-financial goals like user growth. Critically, the company does not disclose the metrics for its short-term incentive plan, a major lack of transparency. |
| External Track Record & Experience | 4/4 | The CEO, Charles Gillespie, is a co-founder of the company and has led it since its inception in 2006. He has a verifiable track record of successfully scaling the business from a private entity to a public company that completed its IPO in July 2021, perfectly aligning with the experience required for this archetype. |
| Board Oversight & Governance | 4/4 | The board's composition is exceptionally well-suited for a hypergrowth company. It includes Gregg Michaelson, a General Partner at venture capital firm Edison Partners which invested in the company, and Pär Sundberg, the co-founder and former CEO of LeoVegas AB, a highly successful online gaming company. This combination of VC and founder experience is ideal for overseeing a high-growth strategy. |
Part A: Leadership Assessment
Leadership Track Record: The current CEO, Charles Hanson Gillespie, is a co-founder who has led the company since its inception in 2006. His entire verifiable track record is one of successfully scaling this business from a private startup through its 2021 IPO on the Nasdaq, which is perfectly aligned with the experience required to lead an Early-Stage Hypergrowth company.
Capital Allocation Skill: Our forensic review of the company's capital allocation history reveals a deeply flawed strategy that is misaligned with a prudent hypergrowth model. The primary strategy has been large, debt-funded M&A, which has increased financial risk by raising total debt from $7.6 million in FY2021 to $88.2 million in the latest quarter. Furthermore, management's timing on share repurchases has been poor; for instance, in 2021 they repurchased $2.9 million of stock at an average price of $11.85. This tranche has generated a current return on investment of -54.5%, representing significant value destruction for shareholders.
Credibility & Communication: Our analysis of recent earnings call transcripts suggests management's credibility with investors is mixed. While they have a strong quarterly EPS hit rate of 89%, their credibility on the top line is weak, with a quarterly revenue hit rate of only 56% and two consecutive downward revisions to 2025 guidance. This pattern suggests a tendency to overpromise on growth while successfully managing bottom-line expectations.
Part B: Governance & Alignment Scorecard
Board Independence: 71.4% (5 of 7 directors)
Chairman/CEO Roles: Combined
Chairman Tenure: 18 years (since founding in 2006)
Insider Ownership: 18.4% (All Execs & Directors, estimated current)
Shareholder Rights: Classified Board
Part C: Final Stewardship Verdict
Part A: Final Method Marks Table
| Method | Implied Value / Share | Weight | Contribution ($/sh) | vs. Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (PWER) | $0.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100.0% (Downside) |
| Comps | $5.71 | 60.0% | $3.43 | +11.3% (Upside) |
| Historicals | $13.49 | 10.0% | $1.35 | +163.0% (Upside) |
| Price Targets | $8.50 | 30.0% | $2.55 | +65.7% (Upside) |
| Weighted Implied Value | $7.33 | 100.0% | $7.33 | +42.8% (Upside) |
Part B: Valuation & Weighting Justification
Comps
Weight Justification: Comps analysis is assigned the highest weight as it provides the most reliable gauge of current market sentiment for high-growth, asset-light digital media companies. The Comparable Companies appendix confirms the peer set is anchored by a Tier 1 Direct Rival (ELA) that serves as a strong "economic twin" in terms of business model, growth, and returns. This high-quality peer anchor increases our confidence that the qualitatively-adjusted EV/Sales multiple provides a relevant, market-validated assessment of the company's current growth premium and risk profile.
Valuation Context: Based on a qualitatively-adjusted blend of peer multiples (70% EV/Sales, 30% EV/EBITDA).
Historicals
Weight Justification: Historical Multiples are assigned a low weight. The company has undergone a significant structural break in its business model, shifting from a pure affiliate marketer to a leveraged, M&A-driven data services provider. This strategic pivot, combined with a recent collapse in TTM operating margin and decelerating revenue growth, means the company's past trading multiples reflect a fundamentally different business and risk profile.
Valuation Context: Based on a qualitatively-adjusted blend of historical multiples (60% EV/Sales, 40% EV/FCF).
Price Targets
Weight Justification: Analyst Price Targets are assigned a moderate weight. For an early-stage company undergoing a strategic pivot, the consensus view of institutional analysts provides a critical, forward-looking valuation signal. However, the Analyst Price Targets appendix shows that coverage is thin (two analysts) and sell-side conviction is deteriorating, which tempers the reliability of this method.
Valuation Context: Average of 2 targets published between Oct-2025 and Nov-2025.
Part C: Defining the Margin of Safety
Valuation Floor: $0.00
Justification: The valuation floor is set at $0.00, representing the Bear Case DCF Value. This serves as the ultimate backstop in a 'broken growth' scenario where the strategic pivot fails, the core business continues to decline, and the company's high leverage and potential litigation liabilities lead to insolvency.
Part D: Defining the Range of Outcomes (Scenario Analysis)
Base Case Narrative & Assumptions: Our Base Case models a "Strategic Pivot" where the company successfully transitions its business model. This scenario assumes revenue grows at a 16.9% 5-year CAGR and operating margins slowly recover from the current 2.6% TTM level to a normalized 21.0% by Year 5, driven by the scaling of the high-margin data services business.
Bull Case Narrative & Assumptions ("Blue-Sky Potential"): Our Bull Case models an "Accelerated Market Capture" where the B2B data services platform rapidly takes share from incumbents. This scenario assumes revenue growth is approximately 5% higher than the Base Case annually and operating margins expand more quickly to 25.0% by Year 5. Due to a calculation error in the source DCF model, the implied "blue-sky" valuation is not calculable.
Bear Case Narrative & Assumptions (The Floor Value): Our Bear Case DCF models a "Failed Pivot" with continued degradation of the core marketing business and a failure to scale the new data services segment. This scenario assumes revenue growth turns negative and margins remain compressed. The ultimate floor value in this scenario is determined directly by the Bear Case DCF calculation, which results in a value of $0.00 per share.
Part A: Key Catalysts
Catalyst #1: Achieving First Quarter of Positive GAAP Net Income Post-Acquisition. A clean GAAP profit, free from the noise of acquisition-related adjustments, would serve as a powerful de-risking event. It would validate the M&A strategy, prove the pivot is accretive on a fully-costed basis, and directly address the market's primary concern about execution and sustainable profitability.
Impact: Critical
Likelihood: Medium
Timing: Mid-Term (6-18 months)
Supporting Evidence: Management's 2025 guidance implies strong adjusted EBITDA growth. Achieving GAAP profitability would be the next logical step to prove the model's viability after absorbing the significant non-cash charges from the OddsJam acquisition.
Catalyst #2: Major B2B Enterprise Win for OpticOdds. The announcement of a long-term data services contract with a major global gambling operator would provide tangible proof that the company's B2B platform can compete with and win business from large incumbents like Sportradar and Genius Sports.
Impact: High
Likelihood: Medium
Timing: Mid-Term (6-18 months)
Supporting Evidence: Management commentary on recent earnings calls has consistently highlighted the B2B data platform as the "core future growth driver" and noted active efforts to leverage its international operator relationships to distribute the product globally.
Catalyst #3: Stabilization and Return to Growth in Core Marketing Business. A sustained recovery in search rankings and a return to the low-teens organic growth rate management has guided to for 2026 would alleviate fears that the cash-flow engine funding the strategic pivot is a "melting ice cube."
Impact: High
Likelihood: Low
Timing: Near-Term (0-6 months)
Supporting Evidence: On the Q3 2025 earnings call, management expressed confidence that search dynamics were improving in late October, leading them to believe the business had "bottomed out" and would return to growth.
Part B: Context for Timeliness
Risk #1: Execution Failure & Integration Risk. The most significant risk is that the company fails to successfully integrate its large, debt-funded acquisitions and scale the new data services business. This could lead to continued cash burn, failure to realize synergies, and an inability to service its increased debt load, resulting in significant capital impairment.
Supporting Factors: The company has issued two consecutive downward revisions to its 2025 guidance, signaling near-term execution challenges. Furthermore, the company's 2024 annual report disclosed a material weakness in internal controls over financial reporting related to revenue recognition, which raises concerns about the integrity of performance measurement.
Existing Mitigants: The company is led by its founder, who has a long and successful track record of scaling the business from its inception. The board also possesses deep industry and venture capital experience.
Residual Concern: High
Risk #2: External Platform & Regulatory Risk. The core affiliate marketing business, which provides the cash flow to fund the strategic pivot, remains highly dependent on Google's search algorithms. Further negative changes could cripple this cash flow engine, jeopardizing the company's ability to invest in growth and service its debt.
Supporting Factors: Management explicitly cited "unfavorable search rankings" and "persistent search dynamics" as the primary reasons for flat marketing revenue and the recent guidance cuts on the Q3 2025 earnings call.
Existing Mitigants: The strategic pivot into data services is the primary long-term mitigant, as it is designed to diversify revenue away from SEO dependence and toward a more defensible, recurring-revenue model.
Residual Concern: High
Risk #3: Balance Sheet & Litigation Risk. The company's balance sheet is now leveraged, with $80.8M in net debt and a large contingent payment of $40.0M due in April 2026. A significant adverse ruling in the pre-existing lawsuit against its acquired subsidiary, OddsJam, where potential damages have been cited up to $100M, could trigger a liquidity crisis.
Supporting Factors: The lawsuit is disclosed as a risk factor in the company's annual report and has been cited in external bear theses. The debt load and contingent payment schedule are confirmed in financial statements and earnings call transcripts.
Existing Mitigants: Management has stated the company has $70.5M in undrawn capacity on its credit facility, providing a liquidity buffer.
Residual Concern: Medium
Part A: Implementation Parameters
Suggested Entry Target (USD): 5.13
Entry Target Rationale: The stock is already trading near its 2-year low after a significant sell-off and capitulation event. The suggested entry is therefore 'at market' to capitalize on the deeply oversold conditions.
Stop-Loss Target (USD): 4.50
Stop-Loss Rationale: A weekly close below the 2-year technical low of $4.60 would signal a definitive breakdown of support and indicate a complete loss of market confidence, thus invalidating the thesis that the recent sell-off represents a bottom.
Recommended Position Size: Starter
Position Sizing Rationale: Given the 'Medium' conviction and +42.8% expected return, a position is warranted. However, the 'High' residual concern around execution, platform risk, and the balance sheet, combined with the binary, venture-capital-like nature of the bet, justifies only a 'Starter' position.
Recommended Time Horizon: Transitional (12-24 Months)
Time Horizon Rationale: A 12-24 month horizon is required to monitor the integration of the OddsJam acquisition, track the scaling of the B2B data services business, and see evidence of stabilization in the core marketing segment, which are the key drivers of the investment thesis.
Part B: Thesis Monitoring Plan
Key Monitoring Factors:
1. Sports Data Services Growth: Track quarterly revenue, subscriber growth, and management commentary on the B2B OpticOdds platform to validate the pivot is gaining traction.
2. Core Marketing Stability: Monitor management commentary and financial impact of Google search algorithm changes to ensure the legacy business is stabilizing and can continue to fund the transition.
3. Liquidity & Cash Flow: Track quarterly free cash flow and available credit capacity to ensure the company maintains its solvency runway ahead of the $40.0M contingent payment due in April 2026.
Thesis Invalidation ("Thesis Killer"): The core thesis would be invalidated by two consecutive quarters of decelerating revenue growth in the Sports Data Services segment. This would signal that the strategic pivot has failed to gain traction, leaving the company exposed to its declining legacy business with a dangerously leveraged balance sheet.
Price Targets: Last 6M ending 2025-11-25
Latest per analyst within window.
| Analyst | Published | Price @ Post | Price Target | % PT vs Price @ Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 2025-11-14 | $5.05 | $8.00 | +58.3% |
| Truist Financial | 2025-10-21 | $7.70 | $9.00 | +16.9% |
Guidance Hit Rate (Annual)
Hit defined as Actual ≥ Estimate.
| FYE Date | Rev Est (M USD) | Rev Actual (M USD) | % Diff | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Diff ($) | Rev Hit | EPS Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | 127 | 127 | +0.4% | 0.87 | 0.85 | -0.02 | Yes | No |
| 2023-12-31 | 104 | 109 | +4.7% | 0.56 | 0.49 | -0.07 | Yes | No |
| 2022-12-31 | 74 | 77 | +4.0% | 0.25 | 0.07 | -0.18 | Yes | No |
| 2021-12-31 | 42 | 42 | -0.1% | 0.37 | 0.40 | +0.03 | No | Yes |
Guidance Hit Rate (Quarterly)
Hit defined as Actual ≥ Estimate.
| Report Date | Rev Est (K USD) | Rev Actual (K USD) | % Diff | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Diff ($) | Rev Hit | EPS Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | 46,057 | 38,982 | -15.4% | 0.20 | 0.26 | +0.06 | No | Yes |
| 2025-08-14 | 42,474 | 39,594 | -6.8% | 0.12 | 0.37 | +0.25 | No | Yes |
| 2025-05-15 | 38,987 | 40,635 | +4.2% | 0.19 | 0.46 | +0.27 | Yes | Yes |
| 2025-03-20 | 40,577 | 35,308 | -13.0% | 0.25 | 0.35 | +0.10 | No | Yes |
| 2024-11-14 | 34,336 | 32,118 | -6.5% | 0.18 | 0.24 | +0.06 | No | Yes |
| 2024-08-15 | 30,400 | 30,541 | +0.5% | 0.12 | 0.19 | +0.07 | Yes | Yes |
| 2024-05-16 | 26,910 | 29,215 | +8.6% | 0.14 | 0.19 | +0.05 | Yes | Yes |
| 2024-03-21 | 27,690 | 32,530 | +17.5% | 0.19 | 0.16 | -0.03 | Yes | No |
| 2023-11-15 | 27,620 | 23,458 | -15.1% | 0.10 | 0.13 | +0.03 | No | Yes |
| 2023-08-17 | 21,830 | 25,972 | +19.0% | 0.12 | 0.17 | +0.05 | Yes | Yes |
| 2023-05-18 | 21,420 | 26,692 | +24.6% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.00 | Yes | Yes |
| 2023-03-23 | 23,870 | 21,349 | -10.6% | 0.08 | 0.02 | -0.06 | No | No |
| 2022-11-17 | 17,454 | 19,649 | +12.6% | 0.05 | 0.16 | +0.11 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-08-29 | 18,270 | 15,924 | -12.8% | 0.02 | 0.09 | +0.07 | No | Yes |
| 2022-05-31 | 17,835 | 19,585 | +9.8% | 0.12 | 0.15 | +0.03 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-03-24 | 10,280 | 10,291 | +0.1% | 0.02 | 0.02 | +0.00 | Yes | Yes |
| 2021-11-18 | 10,360 | 10,123 | -2.3% | 0.04 | 0.14 | +0.10 | No | Yes |
| 2021-08-26 | 10,360 | 10,392 | +0.3% | 0.07 | 0.08 | +0.01 | Yes | Yes |
Appendix: Financial Statements - GAMB
TTM and Latest (Q) Data as of: 2025-09-30
Income Statement
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 154.5 | 127.2 | 108.7 | 76.5 | 42.3 | 28.0 |
| Cost of Revenue | 10.6 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross Profit | 144.0 | 119.6 | 99.5 | 73.5 | 42.3 | 28.0 |
| SG&A | 90.1 | 69.5 | 59.6 | 53.3 | 27.1 | 14.1 |
| R&D | 21.3 | 13.9 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| Operating Expenses | 139.9 | 84.0 | 77.8 | 71.7 | 30.9 | 16.8 |
| Operating Income | 4.1 | 35.7 | 21.8 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| EBITDA | 25.2 | 43.0 | 24.5 | 11.2 | 16.4 | 15.1 |
| EBIT | 12.8 | 37.2 | 22.4 | 4.2 | 14.0 | 12.9 |
| Interest Expense | 8.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Tax Expense | 2.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -4.4 |
| Net Income (Cmn) | 1.9 | 30.7 | 18.3 | 2.4 | 12.5 | 15.2 |
| Net Income | 1.9 | 30.7 | 18.3 | 2.4 | 12.5 | 15.2 |
| EPS | $-0.11 | $0.85 | $0.49 | $0.07 | $0.40 | $0.55 |
| EPS Diluted | $-0.11 | $0.84 | $0.47 | $0.06 | $0.37 | $0.49 |
| Shares (WA) | 35.7M | 34.8M | 37.2M | 36.5M | 33.8M | 33.8M |
| Shares (Diluted) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DPS | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Income Statement - Supplemental
| Item | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 24.2% | 17.1% | 42.0% | 80.8% | 51.3% | - |
| Gross Margin | 93.2% | 94.1% | 91.6% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| SG&A Margin | 58.3% | 54.7% | 54.9% | 69.6% | 64.0% | 50.2% |
| R&D Margin | 13.8% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
| Operating Margin | 2.6% | 28.1% | 20.0% | 2.5% | 26.9% | 39.8% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 24.1% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 29.4% | 54.1% |
Balance Sheet
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | Latest (Q) | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 7.4 | 13.7 | 25.4 | 29.7 | 51.0 | 8.2 |
| Receivables | 23.9 | 21.2 | 21.9 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Inventory | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Current Assets | 31.3 | 34.9 | 47.4 | 42.0 | 56.5 | 13.7 |
| PP&E (Net) | 6.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Intangibles | 261.9 | 130.8 | 98.0 | 88.5 | 25.4 | 23.6 |
| Non-Current Assets | 273.9 | 143.7 | 107.5 | 96.9 | 34.5 | 31.7 |
| Total Assets | 305.1 | 178.6 | 154.9 | 138.9 | 91.0 | 45.4 |
| Payables | 13.1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Current Liabilities | 67.7 | 29.7 | 32.7 | 31.7 | 9.8 | 3.7 |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 103.8 | 25.7 | 3.2 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 7.5 |
| Total Liabilities | 171.4 | 55.4 | 35.9 | 51.8 | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| Debt | 88.2 | 28.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
| Equity | 133.7 | 123.2 | 118.9 | 87.1 | 79.9 | 34.2 |
Balance Sheet - Supplemental
| Item | Latest (Q) | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible Book | -128.2 | -7.6 | 20.9 | -1.4 | 54.5 | 10.7 |
| Net Debt | 80.8 | 14.2 | -23.7 | -27.6 | -43.4 | -0.3 |
| Debt/Equity | 66.0% | 22.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 9.5% | 23.2% |
| Debt/Assets | 28.9% | 15.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 8.4% | 17.5% |
Cash Flow Statement
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Cash from Ops | 42.8 | 37.6 | 17.9 | 18.8 | 14.0 | 10.9 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 12.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| CapEx | -4.1 | -3.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -94.9 | -43.8 | -19.5 | -32.7 | -5.6 | -0.1 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 42.8 | -5.2 | -3.1 | -7.3 | 35.0 | -10.2 |
| Net Cash Flow | -9.3 | -11.4 | -4.7 | -21.3 | 43.4 | 0.6 |
Cash Flow Statement - Supplemental
| Item | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | 46.9 | 40.9 | 18.4 | 19.1 | 14.3 | 10.9 |
| FCF Margin | 30.4% | 32.1% | 16.9% | 24.9% | 33.8% | 39.1% |
Historical Ratios & Multiples - GAMB
Historical data as of Fiscal Year End. TTM Market Data as of 2025-11-26; TTM Financial Data as of 2025-09-30.
Valuation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.5M | $384.9M | -50.0% | $364.6M | -47.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $273.3M | $372.5M | -26.6% | $344.5M | -20.7% |
| EV/Sales | 1.8x | 3.6x | -51.5% | 4.3x | -58.6% |
| EV/EBIT | 21.4x | 35.5x | -39.6% | 31.2x | -31.4% |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 17.9x | -39.6% | 17.4x | -37.8% |
| EV/FCF | 7.1x | 16.5x | -57.1% | 17.1x | -58.7% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.8x | -68.4% | 4.6x | -74.2% |
| P/E | 101.6x | 61.7x | +64.7% | 52.4x | +94.0% |
| P/FCF | 5.0x | 17.3x | -71.2% | 18.5x | -73.1% |
| P/B | 1.4x | 3.6x | -61.1% | 3.7x | -61.6% |
| P/Tangible Book | 4.5x | -100.9x | nmf | -74.3x | nmf |
| Graham Number | 2.25 | 5.37 | -58.1% | 5.18 | -56.6% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.5M | $463.4M | $327.6M | $363.6M | $303.9M |
| Enterprise Value | $273.3M | $477.6M | $303.9M | $336.0M | $260.5M |
| EV/Sales | 1.8x | 3.8x | 2.8x | 4.4x | 6.2x |
| EV/EBIT | 21.4x | 12.8x | 13.6x | 80.0x | 18.6x |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 11.1x | 12.4x | 30.1x | 15.9x |
| EV/FCF | 7.1x | 13.9x | 17.4x | 18.2x | 19.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.6x | 3.0x | 4.8x | 7.2x |
| P/E | 101.6x | 15.1x | 17.9x | 152.1x | 24.4x |
| P/FCF | 5.0x | 13.5x | 18.8x | 19.7x | 22.2x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 3.8x | 2.8x | 4.2x | 3.8x |
| P/Tangible Book | 4.5x | -60.8x | 15.7x | -257.5x | 5.6x |
| Graham Number | 2.25 | 8.23 | 5.94 | 1.94 | 4.61 |
Growth
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 24.2% | 46.6% | -22.4% | 47.8% | -23.6% |
| FCF YoY | 37.6% | 42.2% | -4.6% | 38.2% | -0.6% |
| Equity YoY | 6.7% | 16.4% | -9.7% | 45.7% | -39.0% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 24.2% | 17.1% | 42.0% | 80.8% | 51.3% |
| FCF YoY | 37.6% | 97.2% | -5.2% | 34.6% | 26.2% |
| Equity YoY | 6.7% | 3.6% | 36.5% | 9.0% | 133.6% |
Profitability & Quality
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 93.2% | 93.9% | -0.7% | 95.5% | -2.2% |
| Operating Margin | 2.6% | 93.9% | -91.3% | 95.5% | -92.8% |
| EBIT Margin | 8.3% | 18.5% | -10.2% | 22.1% | -13.8% |
| Pretax Margin | 2.7% | 16.4% | -13.7% | 19.5% | -16.7% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 14.7% | -13.5% | 18.4% | -17.2% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 55.3% | 12.4% | +42.9% | 8.7% | +46.6% |
| Operating CF Margin | 27.7% | 23.5% | +4.1% | 25.9% | +1.8% |
| FCF Yield | 20.1% | 5.9% | +14.1% | 5.6% | +14.5% |
| ROA | 0.7% | 10.6% | -9.9% | 12.3% | -11.6% |
| ROCE | 6.1% | 17.2% | -11.0% | 18.6% | -12.4% |
| ROE | 1.4% | 14.9% | -13.5% | 16.4% | -15.0% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 4.4% | 33.7% | -29.3% | 30.0% | -25.6% |
| ROIC | 21.6% | -133.5% | +155.1% | -77.9% | +99.5% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 93.2% | 94.1% | 91.6% | 96.1% | 100.0% |
| Operating Margin | 2.6% | 94.1% | 91.6% | 96.1% | 100.0% |
| EBIT Margin | 8.3% | 29.3% | 20.6% | 5.5% | 33.0% |
| Pretax Margin | 2.7% | 26.9% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 28.7% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 24.1% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 29.4% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 55.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 17.6% | -2.4% |
| Operating CF Margin | 27.7% | 29.6% | 16.5% | 24.5% | 33.1% |
| FCF Yield | 20.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| ROA | 0.7% | 17.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 17.3% |
| ROCE | 6.1% | 27.5% | 19.5% | 4.5% | 22.7% |
| ROE | 1.4% | 24.9% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 20.9% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 4.4% | 64.2% | 32.1% | 4.7% | 19.0% |
| ROIC | 21.6% | 157.9% | -431.8% | -126.7% | 88.9% |
Capital Structure & Liquidity
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.48 | 6.93 | -93.0% | 5.66 | -91.4% |
| Cash Ratio | 0.11 | 0.72 | -85.0% | 1.84 | -94.1% |
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | 1.31 | -64.8% | 2.42 | -80.9% |
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 | 1.31 | -64.8% | 2.42 | -80.9% |
| Debt/Assets | 0.56 | 0.31 | +84.2% | 0.26 | +116.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | 0.45 | +185.8% | 0.37 | +245.4% |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 85.8% | 66.8% | +19.1% | 57.0% | +28.8% |
| Interest Coverage | 1.50 | 8.38 | -82.1% | 8.21 | -81.8% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.2x | -1.0x | nmf | -1.4x | nmf |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.48 | 1.35 | 10.39 | 9.05 | 1.84 |
| Cash Ratio | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 0.94 | 5.19 |
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | 1.17 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 5.75 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 | 1.17 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 5.75 |
| Debt/Assets | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 0.12 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 85.8% | 73.2% | 63.3% | 63.7% | 27.9% |
| Interest Coverage | 1.50 | 12.03 | 9.87 | 3.23 | 7.72 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.2x | 0.3x | -1.0x | -2.5x | -2.7x |
Efficiency & Turnover
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.56 | 0.68 | -17.1% | 0.66 | -14.2% |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.90 | 6.97 | -1.0% | 7.15 | -3.5% |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 22.96 | 35.55 | -35.4% | 31.53 | -27.2% |
| Payables Turnover | 1.07 | 0.79 | +36.0% | 0.59 | +81.3% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.90 | 5.90 | 6.36 | 8.64 | 7.69 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 22.96 | 28.80 | 44.35 | 33.51 | 19.47 |
| Payables Turnover | 1.07 | 0.72 | 1.05 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
Capital Allocation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 2.7% | 1.1% | +1.6% | 1.0% | +1.7% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 33.2% | 27.2% | +6.0% | 23.6% | +9.6% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CapEx / Revenue | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 33.2% | 55.4% | 21.6% | 4.7% | 12.7% |
Comparable Companies - GAMB
As of 2025-11-25; Current Price: $5.13
Peer Average/Median exclude target.
Selection based on Dual-Axis Scoring: Product Fit vs. Financial Fit (1-5 Scale).
Averages and Medians exclude extreme outliers (Growth > 1,000% or < -100%) and metrics with mixed signs.
Peer Selection Rationale
ELA (Tier 1: Direct Rival | Prod: 5/5, Fin: 5/5): ELA is a direct affiliate marketing competitor, operating in the same niche as GAMB. It is an economic twin, with size (1.57x), growth (23.7% vs 24.2%), and ROIC (22.4% vs 21.6%) being nearly identical to the target profile. This is the strongest possible comparable.
IAC (Tier 1: Direct Rival | Prod: 5/5, Fin: 2/5): IAC is a direct substitute in the broader digital media and affiliate marketing space, justifying the Tier 1 selection. It is chosen despite the significant size mismatch (13.93x) and a structural mismatch in growth (-29.4% vs GAMB's 24.2% growth), which caps the financial score at 2.
STRT (Tier 2: Sector Peer | Prod: 4/5, Fin: 3/5): STRT is a close sector peer with excellent size comparability (1.64x). Financial divergence is acceptable; while growth (6.8%) is significantly lower than GAMB's (24.2%), margins (4.9%) and ROIC (15.0%) are directionally aligned, making it a useful valuation anchor.
CDRO (Tier 2: Sector Peer | Prod: 4/5, Fin: 3/5): CDRO is a close sector peer with excellent size comparability (1.65x). The margin (2.2% vs 2.6%) is nearly identical, but growth (119.2%) is significantly higher than GAMB's (24.2%). This acceptable divergence provides a high-growth benchmark for the valuation analysis.
Valuation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.5M | $316.6M | -39.2% | $904.0M | -78.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $273.3M | $291.1M | -6.1% | $979.1M | -72.1% |
| EV/Sales | 1.8x | 1.2x | +48.5% | 1.1x | +67.7% |
| EV/EBIT | 21.4x | nmf | nmf | nmf | nmf |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 36.5x | -70.4% | 411.5x | -97.4% |
| EV/FCF | 7.1x | 31.0x | -77.2% | 35.5x | -80.1% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 1.2x | 0.0% | 1.1x | +11.6% |
| P/E | 101.6x | nmf | nmf | nmf | nmf |
| P/FCF | 5.0x | 29.3x | -83.0% | 37.5x | -86.7% |
| P/B | 1.4x | 3.2x | -55.6% | 4.7x | -70.1% |
| P/Tangible Book | 4.5x | 2.2x | +101.8% | 2.3x | +92.5% |
| Graham Number | 2.25 | 4.60 | -51.1% | 30.66 | -92.7% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $192.5M | $302.2M | $2.68B | $314.9M | $318.4M |
| Enterprise Value | $273.3M | $300.7M | $3.10B | $229.4M | $281.5M |
| EV/Sales | 1.8x | 1.4x | 1.1x | 0.4x | 1.2x |
| EV/EBIT | 21.4x | 22.2x | -15.3x | 7.4x | 57.9x |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8x | 17.0x | 1,568.1x | 5.0x | 56.0x |
| EV/FCF | 7.1x | 36.1x | 25.9x | 3.5x | 76.3x |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 1.4x | 1.0x | 0.5x | 1.4x |
| P/E | 101.6x | 29.6x | -11.9x | 13.4x | 72.5x |
| P/FCF | 5.0x | 36.3x | 22.4x | 4.8x | 86.4x |
| P/B | 1.4x | 4.9x | 0.6x | 1.4x | 11.8x |
| P/Tangible Book | 4.5x | 3.6x | 0.6x | 0.8x | 4.3x |
| Graham Number | 2.25 | 4.60 | nmf | 86.30 | 1.10 |
Growth
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 24.2% | 6.8% | +17.4% | 0.4% | +23.8% |
| FCF YoY | 37.6% | 60.3% | -22.8% | 90.4% | -52.8% |
| Equity YoY | 6.7% | -1.6% | +8.3% | -9.3% | +15.9% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | 24.2% | 23.7% | -29.4% | 6.8% | n/a |
| FCF YoY | 37.6% | 60.3% | -40.2% | 251.0% | nmf |
| Equity YoY | 6.7% | 19.5% | -16.8% | 13.6% | -53.3% |
Profitability & Quality
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 93.2% | 45.6% | +47.6% | 49.4% | +43.8% |
| Operating Margin | 2.6% | 3.7% | -1.0% | 3.8% | -1.2% |
| EBIT Margin | 8.3% | 3.8% | +119.9% | 1.6% | +402.3% |
| Pretax Margin | 2.7% | 3.8% | -1.0% | 0.4% | +2.3% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 3.0% | -1.8% | 0.7% | +0.6% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 55.3% | 24.7% | +30.6% | 25.8% | +29.5% |
| Operating CF Margin | 27.7% | 4.8% | +22.8% | 5.9% | +21.7% |
| FCF Yield | 20.1% | 3.6% | +16.4% | 7.3% | +12.8% |
| ROA | 0.7% | 6.2% | -5.5% | 5.2% | -4.5% |
| ROCE | 6.1% | 13.6% | -7.4% | 10.9% | -4.8% |
| ROE | 1.4% | 10.8% | -9.4% | 8.1% | -6.7% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 4.4% | 6.0% | -1.6% | 4.8% | -0.4% |
| ROIC | 21.6% | 15.0% | +6.6% | 11.0% | +10.6% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 93.2% | 23.3% | 67.9% | 15.9% | 90.6% |
| Operating Margin | 2.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| EBIT Margin | 8.3% | 6.5% | -7.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Pretax Margin | 2.7% | 6.3% | -12.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Net Margin | 1.2% | 4.9% | -8.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 55.3% | 22.1% | 32.1% | 21.9% | 27.2% |
| Operating CF Margin | 27.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 12.4% | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield | 20.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 20.7% | 1.2% |
| ROA | 0.7% | 12.3% | -2.9% | 6.2% | n/a |
| ROCE | 6.1% | 19.4% | -2.7% | 11.8% | 15.3% |
| ROE | 1.4% | 18.0% | -4.5% | 10.8% | n/a |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 4.4% | 12.2% | -4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| ROIC | 21.6% | 22.4% | -4.3% | 15.0% | n/a |
Capital Structure & Liquidity
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.48 | 0.48 | +1.1% | 3.85 | -87.4% |
| Cash Ratio | 0.11 | 1.30 | -91.6% | 1.38 | -92.1% |
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | 2.56 | -82.0% | 3.41 | -86.5% |
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 | 2.56 | -82.0% | 2.39 | -80.7% |
| Debt/Assets | 0.56 | 0.34 | +66.8% | 0.42 | +33.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | 0.54 | +138.1% | 0.92 | +40.0% |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 85.8% | 4.0% | +2063.8% | 10.6% | +709.8% |
| Interest Coverage | 1.50 | nmf | nmf | nmf | nmf |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.2x | nmf | nmf | nmf | nmf |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 14.33 | 0.53 |
| Cash Ratio | 0.11 | 2.13 | 1.70 | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | 5.19 | 2.56 | 2.49 | n/a |
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 | 2.65 | 2.56 | 1.96 | n/a |
| Debt/Assets | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.68 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 2.10 |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 85.8% | 7.9% | 34.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Interest Coverage | 1.50 | 31.50 | -1.56 | 35.66 | n/a |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.2x | -0.1x | 214.2x | -1.9x | -6.5x |
Efficiency & Turnover
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.56 | 1.52 | -62.9% | 1.46 | -61.5% |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.90 | 16.62 | -58.5% | 20.85 | -66.9% |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 22.96 | 9.41 | +143.9% | 78.96 | -70.9% |
| Payables Turnover | 1.07 | 11.50 | -90.7% | 18.85 | -94.3% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 0.56 | 2.52 | 0.35 | 1.52 | n/a |
| Receivables Turnover | 6.90 | 44.46 | 6.33 | 5.70 | 26.91 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 22.96 | 10.80 | 8.02 | 7.37 | 289.64 |
| Payables Turnover | 1.07 | 51.94 | 15.15 | 7.86 | 0.47 |
Capital Allocation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | GAMB | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 2.7% | 0.6% | +315.9% | 0.6% | +321.4% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 33.2% | 40.5% | -18.1% | 65.9% | -49.6% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | GAMB | ELA | IAC | STRT | CDRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CapEx / Revenue | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 33.2% | 36.7% | 7.4% | 44.4% | 175.3% |
Buyback Timing Analysis - GAMB (Ref Price: $5.39)
| Period | Buybacks ($K) | Net Share Δ | Avg Price | Tranche ROI | vs 5Y Avg | EV/EBITDA | vs 5Y | P/TB | vs 5Y | Timing Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 2,862.0 | 0.0M | $11.85 | -54.5% | - | 15.8x | -14.0% | 5.5x | -26.3% | 38.2% |
Execution Details
2021-12-31
Action: Repurchased 2,862.0K at Avg Price $11.85 (Tranche ROI: -54.5%).
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 15.8x (vs 5Y: 18.3x / -14.0%); P/TB 5.5x (vs 5Y: 7.5x / -26.3%).
Context: Net Leverage -2.7x; FCF Margin 32.4%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.9%.
Capital Allocation Profile (TTM)
Buyback Quality: Timing Score 38.2% (Higher=Better); Net Yield -11.7%; SBC Offset 18.5%.
Return on Invested Capital: ROIC 88.9%; Stability (5Y) -; Incremental (1Y) -.
Working Capital Efficiency: DSO 47.41; DIO -; DPO -; CCC - days.
Growth Decomposition (5Y): Share Change - (CAGR); EPS Operating Growth - vs Accretion -.
Balance Sheet: Net Leverage -2.7x; Interest Coverage 7.7x; Effective Int Rate 23.5%.
Capital Deployment: Reinvestment Rate 3.6%; Div Yield -; M&A Spend $0.0M.
Metric Definitions
Timing Score: Percentile rank of the Purchase Valuation (Price & P/TB) relative to the 5-Year range. Higher (>50%) implies buying at the bottom of the 5-year cycle.
SBC Offset: Stock-Based Comp Expense / Buyback Spend. >100% means buybacks didn't fully offset dilution.
Net Yield: (Buybacks - Share Issuance) / Market Cap.
Reinvestment Rate: (CapEx + M&A) / Operating Cash Flow (TTM).
ROIC Stability: Standard Deviation of ROIC over 20 quarters (lower is more stable).
Incremental ROIC: Change in NOPAT / Change in Invested Capital (1Y). Return on new capital deployed.
Growth Decomposition:
Operating: CAGR of Net Income (Growth from business performance).
Accretion: Negative CAGR of Share Count (Growth from shrinking denominator).
Tranche ROI: % Return on the specific buyback quarter based on current stock price. (Current Price / Avg Buyback Price - 1). Measures outcome of capital deployment.
DCF Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis: Gambling.com Group Limited - GAMB
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% |
| Latest Net Debt | 80.8 M USD |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0 |
| Current Share Price | $4.97 (as of 2025-11-21) |
| Base Case Exit Multiple | 15.0x |
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 166.0 | 191.1 | 215.0 | 238.6 | 262.5 |
| Revenue Growth (%) | 30.5% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% |
| R&D (% of Revenue) | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% |
| SG&A (% of Revenue) | 58.0% | 56.0% | 54.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% |
| EBITDA | 36.5 | 45.9 | 57.0 | 68.0 | 78.8 |
| EBIT | 18.3 | 26.0 | 36.3 | 46.3 | 55.1 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 11.0% | 13.6% | 16.9% | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| EBIAT | 18.3 | 26.0 | 28.7 | 36.6 | 43.6 |
| D&A | 18.3 | 19.9 | 20.6 | 21.7 | 23.6 |
| CapEx | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
| Change in NWC | 7.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Projected FCFF | 23.8 | 35.5 | 38.8 | 47.6 | 55.9 |
2.1 Base Case Valuation Bridge
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| (+) Sum of PV of FCFFs | 145 M USD |
| (+) PV of Terminal Value | 717 M USD |
| (=) Enterprise Value (EV) | 863 M USD |
| (-) Net Debt | (80.8 M USD) |
| (=) Equity Value | 782 M USD |
| Implied Value per Share | $0.00 |
| % Upside vs. Current | -100.0% |
| Item | Bear Case | Base Case | Bull Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 323 M | 863 M | 1.2 B |
| Implied Value / Share | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| % Upside vs. Current | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
3.1 Probability-Weighted Implied Value
| Case | Implied Value / Share | Assigned Probability | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case | $0.00 | 30.0% | $0.00 |
| Base Case | $0.00 | 50.0% | $0.00 |
| Bull Case | $0.00 | 20.0% | $0.00 |
Probability-Weighted Implied Value: $0.00
% vs. Current Price: -100.0%
Methodology: We will use the Exit Multiple Method based on EV/EBITDA.
Justification & Data-Driven Weighting:
Step A: Assess Data Quality & Establish a Weighted Anchor.
Step B: Apply Qualitative Adjustment & The "Future Maturity" Guardrail.
The Maturity Rule: By Year 5, the company's growth will have decelerated to ~10.0%. The 13.1x anchor is appropriate for this more mature growth profile.
The Adjustment: We start with the 13.1x anchor.
Calculation: We apply a +3.5x premium for the widening moat and strong future profitability, and a -1.5x discount for the poor dilution control. This results in a net qualitative adjustment of +2.0x.
Step C: State the Final Multiple. The final Base Case multiple is the 13.1x anchor plus the +2.0x qualitative adjustment, resulting in 15.1x, which we round to 15.0x. The Bull Case multiple is set higher at 17.0x, reflecting the successful execution and market leadership. The Bear Case multiple is set lower at 10.0x, reflecting a failed pivot and distressed valuation.
This section varies the Discount Rate (columns) and Exit Multiple (rows) around the Base Case assumptions; FCFF path is Base Case.
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix ($ / Share)
| Exit Multiple \ Discount Rate | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0x | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 14.0x | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 15.0x | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 16.0x | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 17.0x | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Upside Sensitivity Matrix (%)
| Exit Multiple \ Discount Rate | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.0x | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 14.0x | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 15.0x | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 16.0x | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 17.0x | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Prob Wtd. Value - Discount Rate
| Discount Rate | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWER ($/sh) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Prob Wtd. Value - Multiples
| Base Case Multiple | 13.0x | 14.0x | 15.0x | 16.0x | 17.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWER ($/sh) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Coverage: November 26, 2020 - November 26, 2025
Tier legend: Tier 1 = material; Tier 2 = secondary context.
Event Date: November 25, 2025
Price Move Date: November 26, 2025
Close Price: $5.39
IWM Return: +0.89%
XLY Return: +0.69%
Primary Event: Amendment to Schedule 13G filing for ownership reporting.
Core Event: Amendment to Schedule 13G filing for ownership reporting. Key Details:
Reporting Persons: Charles Gillespie, Praetorium Limited
Percent of Class: 11.1% (Gillespie), 10.6% (Praetorium)
Item 4 Purpose: Investment
Filed November 25, 2025
Date: November 17, 2025
Close Price: $4.83
IWM Return: -1.99%
XLY Return: -0.94%
Primary Event: Georgiastaterep.Marcuswiedoweristhe2025Americangamblingawardspolicymakeroftheyear
Date: November 13, 2025
Close Price: $5.25
IWM Return: -2.81%
XLY Return: -2.50%
Primary Event: Announced Q3 2025 financial results (period ended September 30, 2025).
Core Event: Announced Q3 2025 financial results (period ended September 30, 2025). Key Details:
Press release dated November 13, 2025
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed November 13, 2025
Core Event: Filed Q3 2025 financial results. Key Details:
Revenue: $38,982 (Q3), $119,211 (9M)
Net loss: $3,860 (Q3), $6,041 (9M)
Includes OddsJam acquisition impact
Filed November 14, 2025 Financial Impact: Negative net income for period
EPS Beat/Miss: +28.6%
Actual: $0.26
Estimated: $0.20 Revenue Beat/Miss: -15.4%
Actual: $38,982,000
Estimated: $46,057,110
Event Date: August 14, 2025
Price Move Date: August 15, 2025
Close Price: $8.61
IWM Return: -0.49%
XLY Return: -0.24%
Primary Event: Announced Q2 2025 financial results (period ended June 30, 2025).
Other Events on This Date:
Core Event: Announced Q2 2025 financial results (period ended June 30, 2025). Key Details:
Press release dated August 14, 2025
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed August 14, 2025
Core Event: Gambling.com Group reported a net loss of $13.4 million for Q2 2025, driven by a $21.2 million fair value loss on contingent consideration from the OddsJam acquisition. Key Details:
Revenue grew to $39.6 million in Q2 2025 (vs $30.5 million in Q2 2024) and $80.2 million for six months (vs $59.8 million prior year)
Acquired Odds Holdings Inc. for $98.5 million (including $57.7 million goodwill) on January 1, 2025
Secured $165 million Wells Fargo credit facility ($75 million term loan drawn, $19.5 million revolving credit used)
Contingent consideration liability for OddsJam stood at $45.2 million as of June 30, 2025
Basic loss per share was $0.38 in Q2 2025 vs $0.19 EPS gain in Q2 2024 Financial Impact: Fair value adjustments on contingent consideration and acquisition costs resulted in $21.6 million non-cash expense for six months. Actions/Next Steps: Managing integration of OddsJam acquisition and $70.5 million available credit facility for operations.
Core Event: Filed financial statements related to Odds Holdings acquisition. Key Details:
Acquisition completed January 1, 2025
Exhibits: 99.1 (Audited Financials), 99.2 (Pro Forma Info), 99.3 (BDO Consent)
Incorporated into registration statements
Core Event: Amendment to Schedule 13G filing for ownership reporting. Key Details:
Reporting Persons: Charles Gillespie, Praetorium Limited
Percent of Class: 9.9% (Gillespie), 9.4% (Praetorium)
Item 4 Purpose: Investment
Filed August 14, 2025
EPS Beat/Miss: +208.3%
Actual: $0.37
Estimated: $0.12 Revenue Beat/Miss: -6.8%
Actual: $39,594,000
Estimated: $42,473,880
Firm: Jefferies Analyst: David Katz Price Target: $15.00 Price When Posted: $8.76 Implied Upside: +71.3% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4184097/6619286394/GAMB-Gamblingcom-price-target-lowered-by--at-Jefferies-heres-why
Date: May 15, 2025
Close Price: $12.52
IWM Return: +0.65%
XLY Return: -0.22%
Primary Event: Announced Q1 2025 financial results (period ended March 31, 2025).
Core Event: Announced Q1 2025 financial results (period ended March 31, 2025). Key Details:
Press release dated May 15, 2025
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed May 15, 2025
Core Event: Gambling.com Group Limited reported Q1 2025 financial results and completed the acquisition of Odds Holdings, Inc. (OddsJam) to accelerate U.S. expansion. Key Details:
Revenue increased 39% YoY to $40.6M, driven by organic growth and acquisitions.
Net income attributable to shareholders was $11.2M ($0.31 diluted EPS).
Acquired OddsJam for $64.8M cash + $10M shares, with up to $140M contingent payments based on 2025-2026 performance.
Cash position grew to $21.5M; total debt increased to $88.5M via amended $165M Wells Fargo credit facility. Financial Impact: OddsJam contributed $8.6M revenue post-acquisition; goodwill of $57.2M recognized. Actions/Next Steps: Integration of OddsJam ongoing; contingent payments subject to 2025-2026 performance targets.
EPS Beat/Miss: +142.1%
Actual: $0.46
Estimated: $0.19 Revenue Beat/Miss: +4.2%
Actual: $40,635,000
Estimated: $38,987,270
Note: Move likely driven by broader market/sector activity.
Close Price: $11.59
IWM Return: -4.46%
XLY Return: -4.31%
Date: March 20, 2025
Close Price: $13.33
IWM Return: -0.63%
XLY Return: -0.24%
Primary Event: Announced FY 2024 financial results (period ended December 31, 2024).
Core Event: Announced FY 2024 financial results (period ended December 31, 2024). Key Details:
Press release dated March 20, 2025
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed March 20, 2025
EPS Beat/Miss: +40.0%
Actual: $0.35
Estimated: $0.25 Revenue Beat/Miss: -13.0%
Actual: $35,308,000
Estimated: $40,577,420
Firm: Macquarie Analyst: Chad Beynon Price Target: $19.00 Price When Posted: $13.33 Implied Upside: +42.5% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4092847/7159286394/GAMB-Gamblingcom-price-target-raised-by--at-Macquarie-heres-why
Event Date: March 05, 2025
Price Move Date: March 06, 2025
Close Price: $12.89
IWM Return: -1.53%
XLY Return: -2.54%
Primary Event: Amended credit facility to $165M.
Core Event: Amended credit facility to $165M. Key Details:
Increased from $100M to $165M (Term Loan $75M + Revolver $90M)
Maturity extended to February 28, 2028
Exhibit 99.3: Press Release Financial Impact: Expanded borrowing capacity
Date: December 12, 2024
Close Price: $15.63
IWM Return: -1.30%
XLY Return: -0.83%
Primary Event: Announced agreement to acquire Odds Holdings, Inc.
Core Event: Announced agreement to acquire Odds Holdings, Inc. Key Details:
Merger agreement dated December 12, 2024
Purchase price: $80M upfront + $80M earnout
Expected closing: January 1, 2025
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release Actions/Next Steps: Subject to customary closing conditions
Date: November 15, 2024
Close Price: $11.77
IWM Return: -1.49%
XLY Return: -0.85%
Primary Event: Gambling.com Group Ltd. (GAMB) PT Raised to $16 at Truist Securities
Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: Barry Jpnas Price Target: $16.00 Price When Posted: $12.15 Implied Upside: +31.7% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Gambling.com+Group+Ltd.+%28GAMB%29+PT+Raised+to+%2416+at+Truist+Securities/23990616.html
Date: November 14, 2024
Close Price: $12.43
IWM Return: -1.35%
XLY Return: -1.42%
Primary Event: Amendment to Schedule 13G filing for ownership reporting.
Core Event: Amendment to Schedule 13G filing for ownership reporting. Key Details:
Reporting Persons: Mark Blandford, Hay On Wye Investments, Boatside Investments
Percent of Class: 25.5% (Blandford), 21.4% (Entities)
Item 4 Purpose: Investment
Filed November 14, 2024
Core Event: Announced Q3 2024 financial results (period ended September 30, 2024). Key Details:
Press release dated November 14, 2024
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed November 14, 2024
Core Event: Gambling.com Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of $32.1 million, up 37% YoY, and net income of $8.5 million, up 70% YoY. Key Details:
Revenue for nine months ended September 30, 2024: $91.9 million (21% YoY growth)
Gross profit for Q3 2024: $30.4 million (43% YoY growth)
Acquired Freebets.com Assets on April 1, 2024, adding $41.6 million in intangible assets
Repurchased 2.48 million shares for $22.1 million during the nine-month period
Secured $25 million term loan under Wells Fargo Credit Agreement in March 2024 Financial Impact: Deferred and contingent consideration liabilities increased to $17.5 million and $2.7 million respectively from Freebets.com acquisition. Actions/Next Steps: Paid $10 million deferred consideration for Freebets.com in October 2024; board approved additional $10 million share repurchase in November 2024.
EPS Beat/Miss: +33.3%
Actual: $0.24
Estimated: $0.18 Revenue Beat/Miss: -6.5%
Actual: $32,118,000
Estimated: $34,335,900
Date: August 15, 2024
Close Price: $10.90
IWM Return: +2.59%
XLY Return: +3.19%
Primary Event: Announced Q2 2024 financial results (period ended June 30, 2024).
Core Event: Announced Q2 2024 financial results (period ended June 30, 2024). Key Details:
Press release dated August 15, 2024
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed August 15, 2024
Core Event: Gambling.com Group reported Q2 2024 revenue growth of 18% to $30.5M and net income of $6.9M, up from $0.3M in Q2 2023. Key Details:
Revenue: $30.5M (Q2 2024) vs $26.0M (Q2 2023); $59.8M (H1 2024) vs $52.7M (H1 2023)
Net income: $6.9M (Q2 2024) vs $0.3M (Q2 2023); $14.2M (H1 2024) vs $6.9M (H1 2023)
Acquired Freebets.com Assets on April 1, 2024 for up to $42.5M
Repurchased 1.16M shares for $9.8M under buyback program
Secured $50M Wells Fargo Credit Facility ($18M drawn by June 30) Financial Impact: Gross profit increased 16% to $29.1M in Q2 with operating profit of $8.3M vs $0.7M YoY. Actions/Next Steps: Utilizing credit facility for working capital and acquisitions; continuing share repurchases.
EPS Beat/Miss: +58.3%
Actual: $0.19
Estimated: $0.12 Revenue Beat/Miss: +0.5%
Actual: $30,541,000
Estimated: $30,400,000
Date: May 16, 2024
Close Price: $7.84
IWM Return: -0.72%
XLY Return: -0.65%
Primary Event: Announced Q1 2024 financial results (period ended March 31, 2024).
Core Event: Announced Q1 2024 financial results (period ended March 31, 2024). Key Details:
Press release dated May 16, 2024
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed May 16, 2024
Core Event: Gambling.com Group Limited reported Q1 2024 financial results with revenue growth and increased net income. Key Details:
Revenue: $29.2 million (up 9% YoY)
Net Income: $7.3 million (up 11% YoY)
Basic EPS: $0.20; Diluted EPS: $0.19
Repurchased 329,490 shares for $3.0 million Financial Impact: Positive revenue growth driven by casino products across all markets. Actions/Next Steps: Acquired Freebets.com assets for up to $42.5 million and expanded share repurchase program by $10 million.
EPS Beat/Miss: +35.7%
Actual: $0.19
Estimated: $0.14 Revenue Beat/Miss: +8.6%
Actual: $29,214,999
Estimated: $26,910,000
Event Date: November 15, 2023
Price Move Date: November 16, 2023
Close Price: $10.86
IWM Return: -1.62%
XLY Return: -1.03%
Primary Event: Announced Q3 2023 financial results (period ended September 30, 2023).
Core Event: Announced Q3 2023 financial results (period ended September 30, 2023). Key Details:
Press release dated November 15, 2023
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed November 15, 2023
Core Event: Gambling.com Group reported strong revenue and net income growth for Q3 and the first nine months of 2023. Key Details:
Q3 2023 revenue: $23.5M (19% YoY increase); nine-month revenue: $76.1M (38% YoY increase)
Q3 2023 net income: $5.0M (122% YoY increase); nine-month net income: $11.9M (75% YoY increase)
North America revenue grew 42% in Q3 and 56% YTD, driven by U.S. expansion
Acquired RotoWire (Jan 2022) and BonusFinder (Jan 2022), with contingent consideration payments and modifications Financial Impact: Revenue growth across all markets with improved profitability margins. Actions/Next Steps: Continued focus on North American expansion and integration of acquisitions.
EPS Beat/Miss: +30.0%
Actual: $0.13
Estimated: $0.10 Revenue Beat/Miss: -15.1%
Actual: $23,458,000
Estimated: $27,620,000
Date: August 17, 2023
Close Price: $14.68
IWM Return: -1.18%
XLY Return: -1.69%
Primary Event: Announced Q2 2023 financial results (period ended June 30, 2023).
Core Event: Announced Q2 2023 financial results (period ended June 30, 2023). Key Details:
Press release dated August 17, 2023
Exhibits: 99.1 (Press Release), 99.2 (Presentation)
Filed August 17, 2023
Core Event: Gambling.com Group reported strong revenue growth of 63% YoY to $25.97 million for Q2 2023 and net income of $278k. Key Details:
Revenue: $25.97M (Q2 2023) vs $15.92M (Q2 2022)
Net income: $278k vs $56k YoY
North America revenue grew 115% to $13.36M
Modified BonusFinder contingent consideration, recognizing $6.087M fair value change
Secondary offering completed: 4.89M shares sold by shareholders at $9.25/share Financial Impact: Revenue increased 63% YoY; net income rose 396% YoY. Actions/Next Steps: Continued share repurchases under $10M program; $759k spent in H1 2023.
EPS Beat/Miss: +41.7%
Actual: $0.17
Estimated: $0.12 Revenue Beat/Miss: +19.0%
Actual: $25,972,000
Estimated: $21,830,000
Date: July 11, 2023
Close Price: $11.36
IWM Return: +1.03%
XLY Return: +0.84%
Primary Event: Announced media partnership with The Independent.
Core Event: Announced media partnership with The Independent. Key Details:
Press release dated July 11, 2023
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Filed July 11, 2023
Date: November 29, 2022
Close Price: $10.29
IWM Return: +0.29%
XLY Return: -0.32%
Primary Event: Betmgmnamedamericangamblingawardsonlinecasinooftheyear
Event Date: April 12, 2022
Price Move Date: April 13, 2022
Close Price: $7.79
IWM Return: +1.90%
XLY Return: +2.49%
Primary Event: Furnished investor presentation for meetings.
Core Event: Furnished investor presentation for meetings. Key Details:
Filed April 12, 2022
Exhibit 99.1: Investor Presentation
Not deemed "filed" under Exchange Act
Event Date: February 08, 2022
Price Move Date: February 09, 2022
Close Price: $12.50
IWM Return: +1.90%
XLY Return: +1.32%
Primary Event: Announced preliminary 2021 results and 2022 financial outlook.
Core Event: Announced preliminary 2021 results and 2022 financial outlook. Key Details:
Press release dated February 8, 2022
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Preliminary results subject to change Financial Impact: Preliminary financial results for 2021
Event Date: February 01, 2022
Price Move Date: February 02, 2022
Close Price: $10.36
IWM Return: -0.99%
XLY Return: -0.60%
Primary Event: Completed acquisition of NDC Media Limited (BonusFinder.com).
Core Event: Completed acquisition of NDC Media Limited (BonusFinder.com). Key Details:
Closed January 31, 2022
Consideration: EUR 12.5M (USD 13.92M)
Earnout payments up to EUR 47.5M
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Date: January 11, 2022
Close Price: $10.12
IWM Return: +1.06%
XLY Return: +0.96%
Primary Event: Scheduled 2022 annual general meeting of shareholders.
Core Event: Scheduled 2022 annual general meeting of shareholders. Key Details:
Meeting date: May 18, 2022
Record date: March 25, 2022
Filed January 11, 2022
Event Date: January 03, 2022
Price Move Date: January 04, 2022
Close Price: $9.56
IWM Return: -0.15%
XLY Return: -0.61%
Primary Event: Completed acquisition of Roto Sports, Inc.
Core Event: Completed acquisition of Roto Sports, Inc. Key Details:
Closed January 1, 2022
Consideration: $15M cash + 451,264 shares
Earnout payments up to $12.5M
Exhibit 99.1: Press Release
Date: November 18, 2021
Close Price: $13.00
IWM Return: -0.42%
XLY Return: +1.13%
Primary Event: Announced Q3 2021 financial results (period ended September 30, 2021).
Core Event: Announced Q3 2021 financial results (period ended September 30, 2021). Key Details:
Press release and financial statements issued November 18, 2021
Financial information incorporated into Form S-8
Exhibits: 99.1 (Press Release), 99.2 (Financial Statements), 99.3 (Presentation)
EPS Beat/Miss: +245.7%
Actual: $0.14
Estimated: $0.04 Revenue Beat/Miss: -2.3%
Actual: $10,123,000
Estimated: $10,360,000
Date: September 20, 2021
Close Price: $8.71
IWM Return: -2.38%
XLY Return: -2.43%
Primary Event: Furnished investor presentation for meetings.
Core Event: Furnished investor presentation for meetings. Key Details:
Filed September 20, 2021
Exhibit 99.1: Investor Presentation
Not deemed "filed" under Exchange Act
Event Date: August 26, 2021
Price Move Date: August 27, 2021
Close Price: $14.19
IWM Return: +2.82%
XLY Return: +0.91%
Primary Event: Gambling.com Group Limited announced financial results for the period ended June 30, 2021.
Core Event: Gambling.com Group Limited announced financial results for the period ended June 30, 2021. Key Details:
Press release and unaudited financial statements issued on August 26, 2021
Financial information incorporated into Form S-8 (File No. 333-258412)
Exhibits: 99.1 (Press Release), 99.2 (Financial Statements), 99.3 (Presentation)
EPS Beat/Miss: +14.3%
Actual: $0.08
Estimated: $0.07 Revenue Beat/Miss: +0.3%
Actual: $10,392,000
Estimated: $10,360,000
Date: August 26, 2021
Close Price: $8.50
IWM Return: -1.06%
XLY Return: -0.92%
Primary Event: Gambling.Comgrouplimitedreportssecondquarter2021Financialresults
Earnings Call Transcript Summary: GAMB
This report is a summary of 12 available earnings call transcripts for the period spanning March 2023 to November 2025.
Part 1: Individual Transcript Summaries
FY2025 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-11-13)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: GAMB generated record Q3 revenue of $39.0 M, up 21.0% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $13.0 M, up 3.0% year-over-year. The sports data services business grew over 300.0% year-on-year, now accounting for 25.0% of 2025 revenue. Subscription revenue was 24.0% of total revenue, with recurring revenue (including revenue share) at 49.0%. Marketing revenue was flat year-over-year due to unfavorable search rankings (Google favoring low-quality spam content, particularly outside the U.S.). NDCs were down 13.0% year-over-year to 101,000. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.0%, down from 39.0% in the prior year, reflecting higher cost of sales and marketing expenses for traffic diversification. Adjusted net income per share was $0.26, down 16.0%. Free cash flow was $9.6 M (74.0% conversion).
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The core strategic narrative is the accelerating importance of the Sports Data Services business, which is seen as the core future of GAMB due to its attractive offering and multibillion-dollar TAM. The fastest-growing part is OpticOdds (enterprise solution), which doubled revenue year-over-year, driven by new customers and higher revenue per customer. OpticOdds is expanding its offering from risk management data to bet settlement services, including dynamic pricing for same-game parlays. They are also capitalizing on the rapidly growing prediction market ecosystem, where OpticOdds is uniquely positioned to assist market makers. Management remains confident that the marketing business will return to growth in 2026, generating strong cash flow to fund data services investment and capital allocation.
Business Segment Performance: Sports Data Services (OddsJam, OpticOdds) continues to outperform expectations, driven by enterprise sales, and is expected to grow organically at a healthy pace in 2026 and beyond. OpticOdds recently partnered with Pragmatic Play to enhance U.S. player prop market coverage. The marketing business was flat globally due to persistent search ranking issues but is expected to grow in 2026. Management highlighted that non-SEO channels are scaling successfully and are expected to generate more revenue than SEO channels for the first time in Q4.
Macro & Industry Environment: Sports betting operators are increasingly reviewing costs, which favors GAMB's next-generation data platform that offers comprehensive premium data services at a competitive price point. The prediction market ecosystem is viewed as additive to the U.S. market, not a substitute for traditional sports betting.
Guidance & Outlook: Full-year guidance was revised down to revenue of approximately $165.0 M and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $58.0 M. This revision reflects the continued headwind from poor search dynamics persisting through Q3 and into Q4, plus approximately $1.0 M in higher cost of sales related to the successful acceleration of the traffic diversification strategy. The revised midpoint implies 30.0% year-over-year revenue growth and 19.0% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. Management expects Q4 revenue of $46.0 M, the largest quarter in company history, indicating confidence that the business has bottomed out.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. The impact and expected recovery timeline of Google search algorithm changes on the marketing business. 2. The growth trajectory and commercialization strategy for the Sports Data Services business (OpticOdds/OddsJam). 3. Capital allocation priorities, including share buybacks and M&A, given the current stock valuation and upcoming contingent payments. 4. The emerging opportunity in prediction markets.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the confidence in the marketing business returning to growth in 2026, given the persistent Google issues. Management responded that search dynamics began improving in late October (spam results thinning out), leading to better rankings, traffic, and immediate revenue improvement. They believe the issue is a "business-as-usual search situation" dependent on Google clearing spam, not a fundamental change like AI disruption. They expect meaningful change potentially in December.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Sports Data Services: B2C data services (OddsJam/RotoWire) grew marginally year-on-year (pro forma growth of 10.0% YTD). RotoWire subscriber numbers are up 21.0% year-on-year, optimizing for LTV over short-term revenue spikes. OddsJam added new features analyzing liquidity across prediction markets and betting exchanges to identify "sharp money," which has been an immediate hit.
OpticOdds Commercialization: Management sees a clear, long runway for growth with the current OpticOdds offering (data/bet settlement). They are exploring expansion into managed trading services (e.g., personalization, active risk management) to compete with incumbents like Sportradar and Genius, leveraging their modern, cloud-native technology platform against competitors' technology debt.
Prediction Markets: GAMB benefits from larger data providers taking a cautious approach to prediction markets, allowing OpticOdds to serve market makers (including Wall Street firms and native prediction platforms like Kalshi/Polymarket) who need data for risk management.
2026 Outlook (Qualitative): Management expects overall revenue growth in the low-teens, with marketing growing in the low-teens and Sports Data Services growing in the high-teens (B2C high-single digits, B2B above 20.0%). They expect to maintain overall adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-30s (indicative Q4 margin: 33.0% to 34.0%).
Capital Allocation: GAMB has $7.4 M cash and $70.5 M undrawn capacity. They are using the share repurchase authorization ($14.4 M remaining). Upcoming contingent payments for Odds Holdings are $40.0 M in April 2026 and $20.0 M in April 2027. Management is not looking to lever up beyond the existing credit facility until the marketing business rebounds and data services growth progresses further.
FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-08-14)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: GAMB achieved record Q2 revenue of $39.6 M, up 30.0% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $13.7 M, up 22.0% year-over-year. Marketing revenue grew 3.0% with 108,000 NDCs (flat year-over-year). Sports Data Services revenue quadrupled to $10.0 M. Subscription revenue reached 25.0% of total revenue, with total recurring revenue (including revenue share) at 51.0%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.0%, down from 37.0% year-over-year, due to mix shift toward higher cost of sales channels. Adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.37, up 42.0%. Free cash flow grew 36.0% to $8.2 M.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The core strategy is rapid diversification beyond affiliate marketing into a multi-platform integrated marketing, data, and soon-to-be ticketing services business. Diversification includes traffic sources (omnichannel approach: apps, email, social, paid media) and monetization models (RotoWire, OddsJam, OpticOdds). Non-search channels are growing rapidly. Management asserts that AI-driven changes have had a relatively smaller impact on the online gambling industry, and their strategy of building big, authoritative brands (Gambling.com, Casinos.com) positions them well for generative AI inclusion, which relies on the same signals (authority, trust, expertise).
Business Segment Performance: Marketing business grew in all regions except North America (tough comparables, including North Carolina launch tailwind). Sports Data Services growth accelerated, led by OpticOdds (120.0% year-on-year growth). The TAM for data services is being revised up. The acquisition of Spotlight.Vegas (closing September 1) expands the client base to land-based operators and introduces a ticketing/booking platform for gambling-adjacent entertainment, starting in Las Vegas. Spotlight.Vegas generated over $30.0 M in ticket sales in 2024.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management noted that Las Vegas hotel occupancy is currently low, making the Spotlight.Vegas acquisition opportunistic. They reiterated the industry's historical resilience to economic slowdowns. The latest Google Core algorithm update caused weaker search rankings, which is impacting guidance.
Guidance & Outlook: Full-year guidance was adjusted to revenue of $171.0 M to $175.0 M and adjusted EBITDA of $62.0 M to $64.0 M. The revenue increase reflects 4 months of contribution from Spotlight.Vegas and the anticipated Missouri launch in December, offset by weaker search rankings. The EBITDA adjustment reflects higher cost of sales from the higher proportion of non-SEO marketing revenue, strategic investments in new channels, and no adjusted EBITDA contribution from Spotlight.Vegas in 2025. The midpoint implies 36.0% year-over-year revenue growth and 29.0% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. For 2026, Spotlight.Vegas is expected to generate at least $8.0 M in net revenue and $1.4 M in incremental adjusted EBITDA.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Details and strategic rationale of the Spotlight.Vegas acquisition. 2. The impact of the latest Google algorithm update and the resulting guidance adjustment. 3. The long-term implications of AI on search traffic and market share consolidation. 4. The outlook for 2026 growth and margin profile given the channel mix shift.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts probed the magnitude of the Google algorithm impact, noting the $5.0 M EBITDA cut in the back half despite positive acquisition layers. Management confirmed the algorithm update rolled out in the last 30-45 days (squarely in Q3). The EBITDA impact is entirely due to mix shift (higher cost of sales from non-SEO channels, strategic investments, and zero EBITDA contribution from Spotlight in 2025), not margin compression or changes in operator demand/pricing.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Spotlight.Vegas: Upfront payment is $8.0 M cash, with a 2-year earn-out capped at $22.0 M based on incremental EBITDA above a threshold (6.0x operating profit multiple). The business was growing and profitable in 2024 but is expected to be roughly breakeven in 2025 due to the Vegas macro environment. GAMB gains full control over the customer journey (A to Z) for ticketing, unlike the affiliate model.
AI & Search: AI overviews reduce clicks to results below. Market share consolidation is expected, requiring publishers to be positioned 1 or 2 in generative AI results, favoring big brands with industry-leading authority. Early indications show GAMB has a very high share of voice on new AI tools.
2026 Outlook: Expectations for search revenue are lower than in the past due to AI effects, but non-SEO channels will scale meaningfully. The long-term margin profile remains 35.0% to 40.0%. The sports data services business is expected to be the core future growth driver.
Prediction Markets: Management is highly enthusiastic, viewing it as a potential "next chapter of growth" for North America, potentially offering a more consumer-friendly product than state-regulated sports betting due to its sophisticated financial market technology and lower tax rates (zero tax). GAMB is focused on the opportunity but taking a cautious approach on the marketing side due to regulatory partnerships.
OddsJam/OpticOdds KPIs: OddsJam (B2C) client count is roughly flat, but ARPU is up meaningfully due to upselling. OpticOdds (B2B) is signing up new clients and meaningfully increasing ARPU/client.
FY2025 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-05-15)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: GAMB delivered record all-time quarterly revenue of $40.6 M, up 39.0% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $15.9 M, up 56.0% year-over-year. The marketing business grew 13.0%, delivering 138,000 NDCs (up 29.0%). Sports Data Services (including the first full quarter of OddsJam/OpticOdds) quadrupled. Subscription revenue was 24.0% of total revenue, with total recurring revenue (including revenue share) at 50.0%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 39.0%, up 400 basis points from 35.0% a year ago. Adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.46, up 92.0%. Free cash flow was $10.3 M, up 25.0%.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The company has transformed into a marketing and sports data services company, increasing overall revenue visibility. The core strategic objective is to reach $100.0 M in annual adjusted EBITDA. The integration of OddsJam and OpticOdds is progressing as planned, with confidence in scaling the profitable B2C subscriber base (OddsJam) and leveraging GAMB's operator reach to grow B2B enterprise subscription revenues (OpticOdds). The current product suite has attractive growth, and the platform is capable of powering a broader array of enterprise services.
Business Segment Performance: iGaming-led strategy drove performance, with iGaming revenues rising 24.0% year-over-year (organic growth plus Freebets.com contribution). GAMB continues to grow market share in the UK and Europe. North American sports betting has lapped its difficult comparisons and is expected to return to growth for the full year.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management asserted that economic slowdowns have historically had no meaningful impact on the underlying growth of the online gambling industry, which is insulated as players do not need to travel. They expect the current cycle to be no different. They also confirmed no expected impact from changes in trade policy or tariffs.
Guidance & Outlook: Full-year guidance was reiterated: revenue midpoint of $172.0 M (35.0% year-over-year growth) and adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $68.0 M (40.0% year-over-year growth). Guidance assumes a resumption of growth in the North American marketing business, continued global market share gains, and over 20.0% of full-year revenue from recurring subscriptions. Guidance does not include contributions from new acquisitions or the anticipated Missouri launch. Management expects sequentially lower margins in Q2 due to softer seasonality and product investments, before expanding in the second half.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. The impact and opportunity presented by AI and generative search on traffic and monetization. 2. Commercialization progress and cross-selling success of OpticOdds. 3. Operator demand trends, particularly Penn's return to performance marketing. 4. The path and timeline to achieving the $100.0 M adjusted EBITDA goal.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the impact of AI search (e.g., Apple executive comments on Safari search volume peaking). Management countered with Google's reported 10.0% increase in global search volume in Q1 and stated they are seeing all-time high revenue from natural search. They noted that traffic from generative AI tools (ChatGPT, Perplexity) is growing rapidly from a low base, is high-intent, and feels incremental. They suggested the monetization paradigm of AI (users paying for service) could reduce reliance on advertising, potentially benefiting high-quality content publishers.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
OpticOdds: The B2B business is "flying" and is the fastest-growing piece of the entire business. A senior salesperson was hired in London to broaden distribution in Europe, leveraging GAMB's international client list.
Operator Demand: Penn's return to performance marketing is consistent with historical trends where operators exhaust lower CAC channels and return to the affiliate channel. Management welcomes the increased demand.
$100 M EBITDA Goal: With 2025 guidance at $68.0 M, GAMB is 68.0% of the way there. M&A of meaningful size could shorten the timeline significantly, otherwise, it would take another 1-2 years of organic growth (low-teens growth expected). The sports data services business (currently 25.0% of revenue) has slightly higher adjusted EBITDA margins than the marketing business and is expected to contribute $30.0 M to $40.0 M of the $100.0 M target.
Handle Growth: Management sees no slackening in US OSB growth, pointing to double-digit gains in Q1. They are actively collaborating with operators on products like same-game parlays.
Prediction Markets: Management is highly enthusiastic, viewing it as a potential "next meaningful feature" of the US marketplace. They believe court victories (e.g., Kalshi) are providing incremental clarity. The zero tax rate makes it dramatically more interesting than highly taxed state gaming revenue. GAMB is positioned to expand coverage without meaningful OpEx or M&A.
FY2024 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-03-20)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: GAMB delivered record Q4 revenue of $35.3 M, adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 M, and free cash flow of $13.2 M. Full-year 2024 revenue rose 17.0% to $127.2 M, and adjusted EBITDA rose 33.0% to $48.7 M. Q4 revenue growth of 9.0% year-over-year was driven by global iGaming growth, offsetting a decline in North American sports revenue. NDCs declined 9.0% due to challenging comps (no new state launches vs. Kentucky/ESPN Bet launch in Q4 2023) and lower media partnership activity. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 42.0% (up from 32.0% in Q4 2023), benefiting from lower media partnership costs. Full-year free cash flow was $41.6 M (85.0% conversion).
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The company is accelerating growth in 2025, closing in on the $100.0 M annual adjusted EBITDA goal. The most exciting growth driver is the expanded product offering following the January acquisition of OddsJam and OpticOdds, which increases consumer and enterprise recurring subscription revenue. Management is confident in growing incremental adjusted EBITDA from these businesses by at least 20.0% in 2025. OpticOdds (B2B) is viewed as having a substantially larger growth opportunity than OddsJam (B2C) due to its role in solving critical risk management problems for global operators via long-term, high-value contracts.
Business Segment Performance: Core affiliate business had its best quarter in history. iGaming revenue grew across all operating regions in 2024 and is expected to continue in 2025 (organic growth plus Freebets.com benefit). North American sports business is expected to return to growth in 2025 after challenging comparables. Recurring subscription revenue (OddsJam, OpticOdds, RotoWire) is pacing to account for more than 20.0% of total group revenue in 2025.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management expects additional US states to approve iGaming. They anticipate the launch of sports betting in Missouri toward the end of 2025.
Guidance & Outlook: Initial 2025 guidance: revenue of $170.0 M to $174.0 M (35.0% year-over-year growth at midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $67.0 M to $69.0 M (40.0% year-over-year growth at midpoint). This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.5%. Guidance includes $14.5 M of incremental adjusted EBITDA from Odds Holdings and assumes a return to growth in North America, continued global market share gains, and over 20.0% subscription revenue. Guidance excludes Missouri launch.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. The difference in GAMB's performance versus peers (e.g., high concentration on specific products/channels). 2. Commercialization strategy and early traction for OpticOdds (B2B data services). 3. Capital allocation priorities (share repurchases vs. debt paydown) following the Odds Holdings acquisition. 4. The potential impact of prediction markets and sweepstakes on the TAM.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts asked why GAMB continues to outperform peers who are reporting significant challenges. Management attributed the difference to GAMB's organic growth strategy, diversified market exposure (prioritizing iGaming), and deliberate avoidance of "basket case markets" like Brazil pre-regulation, which created hard comps for peers. They noted that the Freebets.com acquisition was opportunistic due to their foresight regarding challenging North American sports comps in 2024.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
OpticOdds Traction: The initial focus was U.S. operators/sports. The current thesis is leveraging GAMB's international operator relationships (e.g., in Malta) to distribute the product globally. The core use case is risk management, providing operators with market data comparable to a Bloomberg Terminal for bond traders.
Capital Allocation: GAMB expanded its credit facility to $165.0 M and received consent from the lending syndicate to waive the 2025 buyback prohibition. They have an existing $10.0 M buyback authorization and will remain "smart and tactical."
Organic Growth Profile (2025): Organic growth is expected to be in the low-teens, consisting of strong growth from owned and operated websites, partly offset by a decline in lower-margin media partnership traffic.
AI Impact: Internal AI adoption is a major 2025 theme, increasing capacity and throughput across the organization. Externally, high-intent search traffic has been the least affected by AI. Traffic from LLMs (citations) is small but growing rapidly, highly qualified, and potentially more valuable than traditional high-intent search traffic.
Prediction Markets: Viewed as "super exciting" and a "clear strong positive" that could expand the TAM. It represents a new form of competition for state gaming regulators due to the federal CFTC framework and zero tax rate. GAMB is talking to all major players.
FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-11-14)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: GAMB delivered record Q3 revenue of $32.1 M, up 37.0% year-over-year, and record adjusted EBITDA of $12.6 M, up 108.0% year-over-year. NDCs were up 35.0% to 116,000. iGaming revenue drove growth across all operating regions. UK/Ireland revenue rose 43.0%, Other Europe was up 192.0%, and Rest of World increased 99.0%. North America was flat year-over-year against challenging comparables. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 39.0%, up from 26.0% a year ago. Free cash flow reached a new record of $14.2 M.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The performance was driven by diversified market exposure and a "casino first" allocation of capital. The core strategy remains: 1) Organic iGaming growth, 2) Organic sports betting growth in iGaming markets, and 3) Targeted M&A. The company is confident in achieving its $100.0 M adjusted EBITDA target, driven by continued market share growth, further US iGaming/OSB regulation (e.g., Missouri ballot measure), international expansion, and targeted M&A that broadens the footprint.
Business Segment Performance: Showcase brands (Gambling.com, Bookies.com) showed strength, and Casinos.com continues its steady march. The Freebets.com acquisition contributed significantly to international growth.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management noted long-term tailwinds from digitization of entertainment and advertising. They highlighted that the company's leadership, technology, and people set them apart from peers.
Guidance & Outlook: Guidance was raised for 2024: revenue of $125.0 M to $127.0 M (16.0% year-over-year growth at midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $46.5 M to $48.5 M (29.0% year-over-year growth at midpoint). The revised guidance reflects strong year-to-date performance. Management expects Q4 to have challenging North American comps due to high media partnership contributions and the ESPN Bet/Kentucky launches in Q4 2023. Full-year North America revenue is expected to be down compared to 2023 but outperform internal models following Google policy changes in May.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Breakdown of organic vs. M&A growth in UK/Europe and the success of the Freebets.com integration. 2. Comparison of GAMB's performance to struggling peers and the lack of sector-specific headwinds. 3. M&A pipeline and strategy (broadening beyond affiliate assets). 4. Outlook for US state launches (Missouri, Texas, New York iGaming).
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts asked for commentary on the significant challenges faced by some peers (workforce reductions, etc.). Management stated there are "no sector specific headwinds" and the affiliate business is "alive and well." They attributed peer struggles to high concentration on specific product markets or disrupted traffic channels, contrasting this with GAMB's diversified, organic growth strategy.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
UK/Europe Growth: Approximately half of the 40.0% growth in UK/Ireland was organic. The Freebets.com integration was completed in 6 months, and new NDCs from the acquired assets have substantially increased from a low base, validating the ability to unlock value from underutilized assets.
M&A: The pipeline is busy, and it is currently a "buyer's market." GAMB is broadening its focus beyond pure affiliate assets to include products/services that can be sold to B2C users or B2B customers.
Sweepstakes/Prediction Markets: Sweepstakes highlight enormous consumer demand for casino games and could spur iGaming legislation. GAMB works with certain sweeps casinos that meet KYC/legal requirements. Prediction markets are viewed as having a "bright future," and GAMB is considering developing relationships there.
North America Outlook: GAMB expects North America to return to double-digit growth after Q1 2025, even before new state launches.
State Launches: Missouri (less than 2.0% of US population) is expected to be a successful launch, likely by football season. Minnesota momentum is building. Texas is a big focus for 2025. New York iGaming has a chance in 2025, despite the high tax rate.
Google Policy: The dust has settled on the May Google policy change; it was "not as bad as feared." Media partnership assets remain important but have peaked as a proportion of overall revenue.
FY2024 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-08-15)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Management reported record Q2 revenue of $30.5 M (up 18% year-over-year) and record adjusted EBITDA of $11.2 M (up 19% year-over-year). The company delivered over 108,000 New Depositing Customers (NDCs), up 19% year-over-year. Gross profit increased 16% to $29.1 M, resulting in a gross margin of 95.0%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 37.0%, up from 36.0% in the prior year quarter. Adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.20, up 18.0%.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The strong performance was attributed to international diversification and the team's ability to quickly optimize performance following changes in the operating environment, specifically Google's policy shift in early May regarding media partnerships. Management emphasized the critical value of performance marketing, estimating it delivers 40.0% of iGaming and 30.0% of sports betting customers in established markets. They reiterated confidence in reaching $100 M in adjusted EBITDA due to exemplary execution, high cash flow generation, organic market share gains, and disciplined M&A.
Business Segment Performance: Revenue growth was primarily driven by strong iGaming performance across Europe. UK and Ireland revenue rose 18.0% year-over-year, Other Europe was up 111.0%, and Rest of the World grew 70.0% (benefiting from the Freebets.com acquisition). North American revenue was stable year-on-year when excluding an atypically strong OSB performance in Q2 2023, but was down 8.0% inclusive of that prior-year performance.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management highlighted the relentless digitization of the gambling and advertising worlds. They noted that many large economies are still early in their relationship with the industry, and digital advertising continues to grow in importance due to high visibility and certainty of ROI. The Google policy shift, which deprioritized content from most media partnerships, was less pronounced than initially expected, and the company's owned and operated sites benefited from the reduced competition.
Guidance & Outlook: The company raised its full-year 2024 guidance. Revenue is now expected to be between $123 M and $127 M (mid-point representing 15.0% year-over-year growth). Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $44 M and $47 M (mid-point representing 24.0% year-over-year growth). The guidance assumes no new acquisitions and no additional U.S. state launches beyond North Carolina. Full-year cost of sales is now expected to be $6.5 M (raised from previous guidance of $4.7 M due to sustained media partnership business).
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. North American Customer Acquisition Environment (CAC trends and affiliate channel importance). 2. Impact and durability of the Google policy shift on media partnerships. 3. Long-term growth profile in mature versus new U.S. states. 4. M&A pipeline and strategic focus areas.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked about the recent court ruling that Google runs an illegal search monopoly and its potential impact. Management responded that any impact would be long-term (5-10 years away), citing the slow pace of the Microsoft antitrust case. They noted that, to date, generative AI and other changes have not meaningfully impacted the volume of traditional search traffic coming from Google.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
CAC Trends: Management confirmed that operators' Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) are declining because they are cutting low-ROI, untrackable spending (like TV/radio). The affiliate channel, which is trackable, remains highly valued, and spending there has not meaningfully changed.
Media Partnerships: The Q2 contribution from media partnerships was higher than initially guided in May. The increased full-year cost of sales guidance to $6.5 M reflects this. Management believes there is a "bright future" for the right, substantial media partnerships, but they will be less prominent. The diminished visibility of media partnerships directly translates to improved visibility and better margins for the company's owned and operated sites.
Freebets Acquisition: The integration is trending ahead of expectations, particularly regarding the base of NDCs previously referred on a revenue share basis. The assets are expected to exit 2024 on a "materially higher run rate" than initially implied.
Long-Term Growth: Management expects North America to grow modestly in 2025 (low-double-digits organic growth) even without new state openings, driven by growth in existing regulated states (like New Jersey). They are confident in reaching $100 M in adjusted EBITDA primarily through existing markets, new state launches, and M&A, without needing a major push into new regions like Latin America.
FY2024 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-05-16)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company achieved record Q1 revenue of $29.2 M (up 9.0% year-over-year) and strong adjusted EBITDA of $10.2 M (down 4.7% year-over-year). NDCs delivered exceeded 107,000, up 22.0%. Gross profit was $27.0 M (up 5.0%). Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.0%. Free cash flow increased 32.0% to $8.2 M.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Management emphasized the global nature of the business and its multiple profit centers. The core strategy is built on a branded global website portfolio (including the recently acquired FreeBets.com) and a best-in-class technology stack. The next major milestone targeted is $100 M in adjusted EBITDA, driven by capitalizing on the digitization of gambling (iGaming penetration in the U.S. is only 10.0%) and the digital revolution in advertising.
Business Segment Performance: Growth was seen across all regions: North America (up 5.0%), U.K. and Ireland (up 5.0%), Other Europe (up 39.0%), and Rest of the World (up 29.0%). North American revenue benefited from the North Carolina launch, but faced tough comps against the Ohio and Massachusetts launches in Q1 2023. The FreeBets.com acquisition closed April 1 and did not contribute to Q1 results.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management addressed a significant, unexpected shift in the digital landscape: Google's new policy on "site reputation abuse," activated on May 5. This policy demoted commercial content from large, reputable media partners (like newspapers) that had pivoted to performance marketing, affecting virtually all media partnerships, including the company's own.
Guidance & Outlook: Due to the Google policy shift, the company updated its 2024 guidance. Revenue was revised down to $118 M to $122 M. Adjusted EBITDA was revised to $40 M to $44 M. The midpoint of the new adjusted EBITDA guidance still represents 14.0% year-over-year growth. Management noted that while media partnership revenue will be directly affected, the net effect on EBITDA will be limited because the company's owned and operated sites (which have higher margins) are unaffected and expected to benefit from less competition. Cost of sales guidance was drastically reduced from $10 M to $4.8 M for the full year.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. The immediate and long-term impact of the Google policy shift on media partnerships and owned/operated sites. 2. The pathway and timeline to reaching the $100 M adjusted EBITDA milestone. 3. The strategy and integration progress for the FreeBets.com acquisition. 4. Changes in M&A strategy (widening the aperture).
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts probed the extent to which the company's owned sites were already seeing traffic shift away from demoted media partnerships. Management confirmed seeing an immediate increase in "share of voice" and improved search visibility on key owned assets (e.g., RotoWire, Gambling.com). They noted that while the shift is a long-term tailwind, they took a conservative view on 2024 guidance as they need time to "recalibrate the machine" and fully optimize their owned portfolio.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Google Policy Impact: The policy is a global shift, not a typical algorithm update. Management believes the changes are largely permanent, though media partners are pushing back. The company remains committed to its partners but expects the channel to be diminished.
$100 M EBITDA Path: The path involves continued organic growth in the mid-teens CAGR for a few years, complemented by accretive M&A. M&A focus is widening beyond SEO-driven affiliates to include technology companies serving the same clients, or businesses with highly predictable subscription revenue (like RotoWire).
FreeBets.com: Integration is proceeding to plan, focusing on moving the assets onto the company's technology stack. The acquisition was strategic to prioritize growth outside the U.S. given the lack of new U.S. state launches expected until 2025. The assets monetize evergreen markets and are expected to realize substantially improved operating performance in the medium term.
Operator Spend: Operators are drilling deeper into performance and are expected to increase affiliate spend as low-ROI sponsorships roll off. The affiliate channel provides the most consistent ROI.
FY2023 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-03-21)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company reported record Q4 revenue of $32.5 M (up 52.0% year-over-year) and record full-year 2023 revenue of $108.7 M (up 42.0%). Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $10.6 M (up 54.0%), with a margin of 32.0%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $36.7 M (up 53.0%), with a margin of 34.0%. NDCs grew 95.0% in Q4 to over 159,000. Free cash flow grew 71.0% year-over-year to $16.2 M.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Management highlighted the company's high-performance culture and execution. North American revenue grew over 30.0% in 2023 even excluding the three new state launches (Ohio, Massachusetts, Kentucky), demonstrating growth in market maturity. The company announced the acquisition of Freebets.com and related European casino assets, expected to close in early April, which is highly accretive and will drive growth in the UK/Ireland and Rest of Europe.
Business Segment Performance: North American revenue topped $20 M for the first time in Q4, growing 103.0% year-over-year, driven by new state launches, increased accounts per user, and accelerating media partnerships (including ESPN BET's entry). UK and Ireland revenue grew 11.0% for the full year, outpacing overall market growth.
Macro & Industry Environment: The company expects continued growth in North America, complemented by international markets. The North Carolina launch (March 11) is expected to be strong. Management emphasized the value of performance marketing as online gambling markets mature and operators focus on efficiency.
Guidance & Outlook: The company introduced 2024 guidance: Revenue in the range of $129 M to $133 M (midpoint growth of 21.0%) and adjusted EBITDA between $44 M and $48 M (midpoint growth of 25.0%). Guidance assumes no additional U.S. state launches beyond North Carolina. Cost of sales related to media partnerships is expected to be $10 M. The Freebets.com acquisition is expected to contribute $10 M in revenue and $5 M in incremental adjusted EBITDA for the nine-month period (April-December).
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Details and long-term potential of the Freebets.com acquisition. 2. Drivers of organic growth in North America and the UK/Ireland. 3. The impact of special situations (like ESPN BET and Super Bowl) on CPA rates and revenue mix. 4. Strategy for new markets, particularly Brazil, and the outlook for iGaming legislation in the U.S.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked about competitors noting lower CPA rates and losing traffic/authority. Management clarified that lower CPA rates were seen in "special situations" like the ESPN BET launch or the Super Bowl, where consumer demand is high but player value (LTV) is lower (e.g., one-time bettors). They asserted that in competitive, high-value "bread-and-butter" situations, CPA rates have not meaningfully changed, and the company maintains strong pricing power due to its high-quality traffic.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Freebets.com Potential: Management expects 2025 contribution from Freebets.com to be "quite substantially better" than the $5 M EBITDA indicated for the first nine months, driven by better deals, conversion rates, traffic quality, and integration into the company's technology platform.
2024 Margin: The 35.0% to 40.0% adjusted EBITDA margin is a long-term goal. The 2024 guidance midpoint (35.0%) is at the low end due to the assumption of no further M&A or state launches, which could otherwise tick up the margin.
Revenue Share: The proportion of revenue share in North America is virtually unchanged, despite a temporary fall in Q4 due to the CPA-heavy ESPN BET launch. Management reiterated that the shift toward rev share is a long-term direction, not a major immediate change.
Brazil Strategy: Brazil is exciting, but the company is not "going all in" immediately. They view it as similar to non-U.S. markets where first-mover advantage is not significant. They will pursue an organic strategy with existing branded assets (Gambling.com, Casinos.com) and remain opportunistic on M&A.
iGaming Outlook: The addition of any iGaming state would be "massive." The 2024 Presidential Election is a headwind, suggesting most iGaming initiatives will likely gain traction in 2025.
FY2023 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-11-15)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company reported solid Q3 results, with revenue growing 19.0% year-over-year to a record $23.5 M. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.1 M, and free cash flow was $1.6 M. NDCs increased 26.0% year-over-year to over 86,000.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Growth was driven by strong organic performance in North America, despite Q3 being seasonally slow and only including three days of revenue from the Kentucky launch. Management highlighted the success of strategic media partnerships (Gannett, McClatchy) which are driving market share gains. The new brand Casinos.com was launched during the quarter, expected to ramp up contributions starting late 2024.
Business Segment Performance: North American revenue rose 42.0% to $12.9 M, reflecting growth from owned websites and scaling U.S. media partnerships. UK and Ireland revenue ($6.9 M) was similar to the prior year, facing challenging year-over-year comps after seven quarters of strong growth. Other Europe declined 17.0% due to compliance-driven product changes in the German market.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management reiterated that the industry is still in the early stages of a long-term growth trajectory. They noted that as markets mature (like the UK), performance marketing becomes increasingly critical to operators. They are confident in continued market share gains and strong margins.
Guidance & Outlook: The company reiterated its full-year 2023 guidance: Revenue of $100 M to $104 M and adjusted EBITDA of $36 M to $40 M. This reiteration came despite expecting a higher proportion of NDCs to be monetized on revenue share (which dampens immediate revenue recognition) and higher costs of sales due to the strength of media partnerships. Guidance assumes no additional market launches or acquisitions for the balance of the year. North Carolina is expected to launch in H1 2024, but is not yet included in guidance.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Performance and scalability of the Kentucky launch and media partnership playbook (especially for North Carolina). 2. The implications of a higher mix of revenue share monetization. 3. Long-term outlook for U.S. market TAM and growth trajectory. 4. M&A pipeline and capital access for larger transactions.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked about the deceleration in UK/Ireland growth after seven strong quarters. Management attributed this primarily to tough comps and a "marginal underperformance" in search results for a couple of months due to continuous Google updates, which they viewed as transitory and now behind them, expecting a rebound in Q4.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Kentucky Launch: Kentucky was very strong, with the company being the largest affiliate for several partners, leveraging owned assets (BetKentucky.com) and media partnerships (Kentucky.com, usatoday.com). This playbook is scalable to North Carolina (where they have partnerships with the Charlotte Observer and News and Observer).
Revenue Share Shift: The shift toward revenue share is incremental, not a "wholesale shift." It has a small dampening effect on immediate revenue but is not indicative of major changes in invoicing or pricing power.
EBITDA Margin Outlook: Management expects to operate the business in the short/mid-term within the 35.0% to 40.0% range. The Q3 margin (26.0%) and expected full-year margin (closer to 35.0%) reflect the increased proportion of lower-margin media partnership revenue.
U.S. TAM: Management remains "maximally bullish" on the U.S. TAM, noting that mature markets like New Jersey are still growing meaningfully. They expect the U.S. market to mirror the UK's long-term growth trajectory, where performance marketing's share of customer acquisition is much higher (20.0% to 40.0% vs. <10.0% currently in the U.S.).
ESPN BET: ESPN BET launched the day before the call and is working with a handful of affiliates, including Gambling.com. Day one performance was "extremely strong."
FY2023 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-08-17)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company reported phenomenal Q2 results, with revenue rising 63.0% year-over-year to a record $26.0 M. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.4 M (up 161.0%), resulting in a margin of 36.0%. Free cash flow totaled $8.5 M, converting a remarkable 91.0% of adjusted EBITDA. NDCs increased 60.0% to over 91,000.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The record results were driven by strong execution in regulated markets globally, emphasizing that growth is not solely dependent on new U.S. state launches. Management highlighted that as markets mature, performance marketing becomes more critical to operators. The new premier brand Casinos.com was officially launched in July, with a long-term vision to be the category-defining destination for the global casino market.
Business Segment Performance: North American revenue increased 115.0%. UK and Ireland revenue rose 25.0% year-over-year, demonstrating strength in mature markets. The company benefited from unseasonably strong growth in U.S. sports betting NDCs, though results would have exceeded consensus even without this atypical outperformance.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management noted that demand for performance marketing remains strong as operators move toward profitability and rationalize marketing spend. They have not seen any signs of consumer pullback. They highlighted significant long-term opportunities in new regulated markets outside North America and Europe, such as Brazil and Japan.
Guidance & Outlook: The company raised its full-year 2023 guidance. Revenue is now expected in the range of $100 M to $104 M (31.0% to 36.0% year-over-year growth). Adjusted EBITDA is now expected between $36 M and $40 M (49.0% to 66.0% year-over-year growth), implying a full-year margin of 37.0% at the midpoint. Guidance includes the launch of Kentucky sports betting on September 28. North Carolina (expected Q1 2024) remains outside of guidance.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Impact of the Penn/ESPN partnership on the competitive landscape and affiliate demand. 2. Quantification of the guidance raise drivers (Q2 outperformance vs. Kentucky launch). 3. M&A pipeline and capital allocation strategy. 4. Growth drivers for iGaming in North America.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked if Ohio's raised gaming tax rate had any indirect effect on the company. Management stated that while higher taxes directly impact player lifetime value (LTV) for operators, it has not had any "material impact" on the company's rates or relationships in Ohio, though it is "not helpful" to the overall dynamic.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
ESPN/Penn Deal: Viewed as "universally positive" as it further destigmatizes the industry. ESPN/Penn will have to spend heavily on customer acquisition, increasing demand for affiliate services. Barstool is effectively "off the map" as competition.
Guidance Drivers: The Q2 outperformance from untypical U.S. sports strength contributed roughly $2.5 M to the guidance raise. The rest is attributed to the inclusion of Kentucky (which launches late September, benefiting Q4).
Pricing/Monetization: Rates are "roughly stable." The company is seeing increased capability from U.S. operators to execute more than pure CPA deals, giving the company more options. They remain agnostic, choosing the model (CPA, RevShare, Hybrid) that maximizes returns based on operator retention and market specifics.
iGaming Growth: The recent breakthrough in iGaming growth (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan) is due to the company's improved ability to capture high-intent traffic through better search rankings, conversion rates, and engagement.
M&A: The pipeline is "very good," and the company is considering new types of opportunities. They have the balance sheet to pursue larger transactions but remain "super picky," only pursuing deals that pass all tests for high conviction.
FY2023 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-05-18)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company reported all-time record Q1 results. Revenue rose 36.0% year-over-year to $26.7 M. Adjusted EBITDA was $10.7 M (up 49.0%), resulting in a margin of 40.0%. Free cash flow was $6.2 M. NDCs increased 31.0% to over 88,000, despite facing tough comps against the New York launch in Q1 2022.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The strong results were driven by execution and the launches of Ohio and Massachusetts. Management highlighted the company's industry-leading organic growth and its differentiation through attractive free cash flow generation. The company is developing Casinos.com, expected to launch in summer 2023, which is viewed as a tremendous vehicle for iGaming revenue growth.
Business Segment Performance: North American revenue increased 33.0% year-over-year to $14.1 M, benefiting from Ohio and Massachusetts launches. UK and Ireland revenue increased 36.0% to $8.5 M, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue in these mature markets. Media partnerships (McClatchy, Gannett) performed as expected, with Gannett expected to generate meaningful revenue starting in the autumn NFL season.
Macro & Industry Environment: The UK's long-awaited white paper on online gambling is expected to have "no meaningful impact" on the business, as many proposals have already been implemented by the industry. The U.S. legislative season is active, with Kentucky and Vermont likely to regulate sports betting soon, and North Carolina also likely to succeed. Texas remains a long shot for 2023.
Guidance & Outlook: The company raised its full-year 2023 guidance, despite lacking clarity on additional U.S. state launches before 2024. Revenue is now expected in the range of $95 M to $99 M (24.0% to 29.0% growth). Adjusted EBITDA is now expected between $33 M and $37 M (37.0% to 54.0% growth), implying a full-year margin of 36.0% at the midpoint. Guidance assumes no new market launches or acquisitions.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Performance of new state launches (Ohio, Massachusetts) and operator spending outlook. 2. Strategy and success of media partnerships versus operator-media tie-ups. 3. M&A landscape following recent industry transactions. 4. Growth drivers in mature European markets.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked about the M&A landscape following a recent acquisition in the B2B space at a high premium. Management acknowledged the positive signal for the sector but reiterated their focus on "fewer, better, bigger transactions." They are having many good conversations but feel "under absolutely no pressure" to do a deal, prioritizing high-conviction opportunities.
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Massachusetts Launch: Uniquely, month two (April) in Massachusetts was better than month one (March), which is atypical for U.S. state launches. Ohio was also very successful.
Operator Demand: Demand for affiliate services remains constant and reliable. Operators want to buy as much traffic as possible, with discussions centering on how to gain more exposure and NDCs within the affiliate channel.
Media Partnership Superiority: Management asserted that the affiliate-media partnership model (like theirs with Gannett/McClatchy) is "fundamentally superior" to single operator-media tie-ups, as affiliates can monetize with all operators, maximizing revenue for the media owner.
UK/Ireland Growth: The sustained record growth in the UK/Ireland is attributed to "all of it," including better search rankings, better deals, improved conversion rates, and superior machine learning/yield enhancement—the "bread and butter" of quality execution.
EBITDA Margin: The expected full-year margin of 36.0% reflects operating leverage, with revenue growth outpacing OpEx growth. The company is nearing the staffing levels needed for long-term growth, allowing the pace of recruitment to moderate.
FY2022 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-03-23)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: The company reported all-time record Q4 revenue of $21.3 M (up 107.0% year-over-year) and record full-year 2022 revenue of $76.5 M (up 81.0%, or over 100.0% in constant currency). Full-year organic growth was 39.0% (well over 50.0% in constant currency). Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $6.9 M (up 202.0%), with a margin of 32.0%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.1 M (up 31.0%), with a margin of 31.0%. NDCs grew 193.0% in Q4 to over 82,000.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The company emphasized its unique position of delivering both high growth and high profitability. The long-term organic growth rate (50.0% CAGR from 2017-2021) validates its strategy of investing in people, websites, and technology. The acquisition of the Casinos.com domain name was highlighted as the "capstone" to the portfolio, expected to surpass Gambling.com in long-term strategic value, particularly for iGaming.
Business Segment Performance: North American revenue grew 364.0% year-over-year in Q4 to $10 M, driven by the U.S. sports season and the Maryland launch. North America is expected to be the primary growth driver and represent a majority of Group revenue in 2023. UK and Ireland revenue grew 54.0% to a quarterly record of $8.1 M, illustrating the increasing importance of performance marketing in mature markets.
Macro & Industry Environment: Media partnership initiatives gained momentum, highlighted by the biggest partnership yet with Gannett (USA Today). Management expects material revenue from Gannett starting in the autumn NFL season. The company is well-positioned with state-specific domains (Bet California, Bet Texas, Bet Carolina) for future regulation.
Guidance & Outlook: The company issued 2023 guidance: Revenue in the range of $93 M to $97 M (22.0% to 27.0% growth) and adjusted EBITDA between $32 M and $36 M (33.0% to 50.0% growth). Guidance assumes an average EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.075 and no additional U.S. state launches beyond the recent Massachusetts launch. The expected full-year margin is 35.0% to 36.0% at the midpoint, reflecting operating leverage despite a higher proportion of lower-margin media partnership revenue.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: 1. Drivers of the 2023 guidance range (UK/Ireland growth vs. U.S. market share). 2. Impact of higher operator hold rates on affiliate demand and pricing. 3. M&A environment and seller expectations. 4. Long-term growth profile in mature markets like the UK/Ireland.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: An analyst asked about the structural impact of U.S. operators improving product (e.g., parlays, efficient modeling) leading to higher hold rates. Management responded that higher hold rates increase player value and ROI, theoretically allowing operators to spend more on players. They confirmed that they are signing more revenue share deals in the U.S., particularly with Tier 2/Tier 3 operators fighting for market share, but this is not a "major shift."
Notable Insights & Clarifications:
Guidance Drivers: The high end of the guidance range depends on the extent to which the company can maintain substantial growth in the UK and Ireland casino business, complemented by continuous market share gains in the U.S.
UK/Ireland Growth: The sustained growth in mature markets is attributed to incremental improvements across the entire execution funnel: better SEO, better deals, better conversion rates, and machine learning optimization—the "bread and butter" of quality execution.
EBITDA Margin: The expected ramp-up to 35.0% to 36.0% margin in 2023 is due to operating leverage, as the heavy investment phase in scaling the organization is slowing down. This range is considered a "reasonable expectation" for the current business setup.
M&A Environment: Management is "extremely active" in M&A evaluation. Seller expectations have become "slightly more rational," but the increased cost of capital presents a mixed dynamic. The company remains focused on deals that create shareholder value.
Part 2: Narrative Evolution Overview (Cross-Transcript Synthesis)
Evolution of Strategic Priorities:
The initial strategic priority (FY2023 Q2 through FY2024 Q3) centered on achieving the $100.0 M annual adjusted EBITDA target through organic growth in iGaming, expansion in North American sports betting, and disciplined M&A focused on affiliate assets (e.g., Freebets.com). The core business model relied on maximizing high-margin owned and operated sites, complemented by strategic, lower-margin media partnerships.
A major strategic pivot occurred in late FY2024/early FY2025 with the acquisition of OddsJam and OpticOdds. The priority shifted fundamentally from being a pure affiliate marketer to becoming an integrated marketing and sports data services company.
By FY2025 Q2, the strategic narrative accelerated, identifying the Sports Data Services business (OpticOdds B2B) as the "core future growth driver" due to its high recurring revenue, attractive margins, and multibillion-dollar Total Addressable Market (TAM). The marketing business was redefined as the primary source of strong cash flow used to fund investment in the data services segment and capital allocation.
The strategy further diversified in FY2025 Q2 with the acquisition of Spotlight.Vegas, expanding the platform into ticketing and booking services for gambling-adjacent entertainment, broadening the client base to land-based operators.
Recurring Themes & KPIs:
Financial KPIs: Consistent focus on Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin (targeting 35.0% to 40.0% long-term), New Depositing Customers (NDCs), and Free Cash Flow (FCF) conversion (consistently high, often above 70.0%).
Search Dynamics & Diversification: The impact of Google algorithm changes (initially the "site reputation abuse" policy in 2024, later persistent spam ranking issues in 2025) is a continuous operational theme, driving the strategic need for rapid diversification into non-SEO channels (apps, email, social, paid media).
Sports Data Services Growth: Post-acquisition (FY2025), the rapid growth and outperformance of the Sports Data Services segment (OddsJam/OpticOdds) is a dominant, recurring theme, consistently highlighted as the fastest-growing part of the business.
Prediction Markets: Management consistently views the emerging prediction market ecosystem as a "super exciting" opportunity and a "clear strong positive" that expands the TAM, often noting the zero tax rate advantage over state-regulated sports betting.
Market Maturity & Performance Marketing: A persistent narrative is that as global markets mature (U.S. states, UK/Ireland), performance marketing becomes increasingly critical to operators focused on efficiency and ROI, benefiting the affiliate channel.
Evolution of Guidance:
FY2023 (Q2-Q4): Guidance was consistently raised throughout 2023, reflecting strong execution, successful state launches (Ohio, Massachusetts, Kentucky), and better-than-expected performance in mature markets (UK/Ireland).
FY2024 (Q1-Q2): Initial 2024 guidance was set high (Q4 2023). It was immediately revised down in Q1 2024 following the unexpected Google policy shift affecting media partnerships, but was quickly raised again in Q2 2024 as the impact proved less severe than initially feared.
FY2025 (Q2-Q3): Guidance faced two consecutive downward revisions. The Q2 2025 adjustment reflected weaker search rankings and the negative mix shift (higher cost of sales from non-SEO channels and zero EBITDA contribution from the Spotlight.Vegas acquisition in 2025). The Q3 2025 revision further lowered the full-year outlook (to $165.0 M revenue and $58.0 M adjusted EBITDA) due to the persistence of poor search dynamics impacting the marketing business through Q4.
Persistent Analyst Concerns:
Search Algorithm Volatility and Recovery: Analysts consistently questioned the magnitude and expected recovery timeline of Google search algorithm changes, particularly the persistent issues impacting the core marketing business in 2025.
Sports Data Services Commercialization: Following the Odds Holdings acquisition, analysts repeatedly probed the B2B OpticOdds commercialization strategy, focusing on client acquisition, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), and the competitive landscape against established data providers.
Capital Allocation and Contingent Payments: Analysts consistently sought clarity on capital allocation priorities, specifically the balance between share repurchases, debt management, and the funding strategy for the significant contingent payments related to the Odds Holdings acquisition ($40.0 M in April 2026).
AI and Generative Search Impact: The long-term implications of AI and generative search on traditional search traffic volume and the monetization paradigm remained a recurring concern, with analysts seeking assurance that GAMB's authoritative brands would maintain "share of voice."
Part 3: Limitations of Summary
This report is a summary of management's self-reported narrative from earnings calls and is not an independent verification of facts or an investment analysis. The scope is strictly limited to the provided transcript documents.
This summary was based on 12 transcripts, which provides a snapshot of the recent narrative but may not capture all nuances of the longer-term strategic evolution.
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