Public Research Library
Browse a selection of Pelican Alpha's publicly available research. Updated 2025-12-12.
| ASML Holding N.V. | Technology | 12/3/25 | Unclear | Medium | $434.9B | $1,090.92 | $1,010.16 | -7.4% | ASML is a world-class technology monopoly where the core debate pits its exceptional quality, durable moat, and secular growth tailwinds against a demanding valuation that appears to price in a flawless operational and geopolitical future; our analysis concludes that the current price offers no margin of safety, creating an unclear risk/reward profile for new capital. | N/A | N/A | $799.00 | -49.4% | N/A | N/A | Re-acceleration of Quarterly EUV System Bookings. A sustained increase in the quarterly order rate for EUV systems would provide tangible evidence that the 2025/2026 cyclical recovery is on track, validating the market's optimistic growth assumptions and potentially driving the stock higher. | Faster-Than-Expected Margin Accretion from High NA EUV. If the company can ramp its next-generation High NA systems to be margin-accretive faster than guided, it would invalidate our core variant perception and prove that current consensus earnings estimates are too low. | Geopolitical Escalation & Expanded Export Controls. The most significant risk is an escalation of geopolitical tensions leading to broader and more restrictive U.S. or Dutch export controls, which could permanently impair ASML's access to the Chinese market or disrupt the critical Taiwan-based supply chain. | Cyclical Demand "Air Pocket". A key risk is that the anticipated 2025/2026 industry recovery fails to materialize as expected. Widespread customer fab push-outs, driven by a global macro slowdown, could lead to an "air pocket" in demand, causing revenue to stagnate or decline and pressuring margins from underutilization of newly built capacity. | |
| Franklin Covey Co. | Industrials | 12/3/25 | Buy | Medium | $202.4M | $16.88 | $21.94 | 30.0% | Franklin Covey is a Cyclical Operator in the corporate training industry where the core debate pits a severe, self-inflicted collapse in profitability against the potential for a cyclical mean reversion; our analysis concludes that the market is extrapolating trough earnings indefinitely, creating an attractive entry point at a valuation that is backstopped by a strong net-cash balance sheet and aggressive, counter-cyclical share repurchases. | $14.04 | -16.8% | $13.50 | -16.8% | Starter | 12-24 | Cyclical Recovery in Corporate & Government Spending. A stabilization or recovery in the macroeconomic environment would directly translate to renewed corporate training budgets and government contract awards, driving revenue re-acceleration and validating the thesis that the current downturn is cyclical, not structural. | Evidence of Positive ROI from Sales Transformation. Tangible proof that the $16 million sales force investment is working, such as a sustained increase in new logo contract value or a meaningful improvement in operating margin, would directly refute the market's narrative of a failed, value-destructive strategy. | Prolonged "Lower-for-Longer" Cyclical Downturn. The most significant risk is that the current cyclical downturn is deeper and longer than anticipated. A prolonged recession would further depress corporate training budgets, rendering the sales force transformation ineffective and potentially leading to sustained negative cash flow, which would erode the company's balance sheet strength and invalidate the mean-reversion thesis. | Failed Execution & Continued Value-Destructive Capital Allocation. A key risk is that management, which our analysis shows has a history of poor capital allocation, will fail to generate a positive return on its $16 million sales force investment. Continued operational missteps could lead to a "melting ice cube" scenario where the company's cash balance is deployed into low-return initiatives, permanently impairing shareholder value. | |
| NIKE, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 12/2/25 | Unclear | Low | $100.1B | $67.29 | $60.69 | -9.8% | NIKE is a Mature Compounder undergoing a painful strategic reset where the core debate pits the durability of its world-class brand against severe operational headwinds and an eroding competitive moat; our analysis concludes that high execution risk and a valuation that offers no margin of safety create an unfavorable risk/reward profile at the current price. | N/A | N/A | $52.28 | -53.3% | N/A | N/A | Successful Launch of New Innovation Pipeline. A successful launch of new products, such as the Pegasus 41 and Air Max DN, that leads to a tangible re-acceleration of organic growth would validate the "Sport Offense" strategy, prove the brand's pricing power is intact, and shift market sentiment. | Stabilization and Return to Growth in Greater China. A demonstrated turnaround in this key market, which has been a major source of operational and sentiment overhang, would remove a significant headwind and signal a return to broad-based global growth. | Failed Turnaround Execution & Permanent Moat Erosion. The most significant risk is that the "Sport Offense" strategy fails to resonate with consumers, new products underperform, and the brand loses permanent market share to nimbler competitors like Hoka and On, leading to a prolonged period of stagnant growth and margin compression. | Sustained Margin Compression. A key risk is that the company is unable to restore its historical high-teens operating margins due to a permanently more promotional competitive environment and structural cost headwinds, such as tariffs on goods from China and Vietnam. | |
| Alphabet Inc. | Technology | 12/2/25 | Hold | High | $3,770.1B | $309.19 | $388.21 | 25.6% | Alphabet is a world-class compounder where the core debate pits its widening AI-driven moat and exceptional returns on capital against the risks of a massive infrastructure investment cycle and persistent regulatory scrutiny; our analysis concludes that the company's durable competitive advantages and elite capital allocation justify its premium valuation, but the current market price offers a limited margin of safety, resulting in a favorable but not yet compelling risk/reward profile. | $262.38 | -15.1% | $199.34 | -34.4% | N/A | N/A | Sustained Margin Expansion in Google Cloud. A key market concern is the profitability of the massive AI infrastructure investment. Continued expansion of Google Cloud's operating margin beyond its current 23.7% TTM level would validate the high returns on this capital, proving the company can absorb depreciation headwinds and drive incremental profitability. | Successful Monetization of Agentic Search Capabilities. The rollout and successful monetization of new, agentic AI search experiences would demonstrate the company's ability to evolve its core product and expand its addressable market, reinforcing the moat and justifying a premium valuation. | Regulatory Intervention or Forced Breakup. The most significant risk is that ongoing global antitrust lawsuits, particularly from the U.S. Department of Justice, result in a forced breakup of the company or impose remedies that fundamentally impair the integration and profitability of the core Search advertising business, leading to permanent moat erosion. | Technological Disruption in AI. A key risk is that a competitor develops a breakthrough AI model or platform that leapfrogs Alphabet's current capabilities (e.g., the Gemini models). Such an event could erode the company's data and algorithmic advantage, leading to a loss of market share in Search or Cloud and a permanent impairment of its moat. | |
| Gambling.com Group Limited | Consumer Cyclical | 12/2/25 | Buy | Medium | $205.7M | $5.69 | $7.33 | 28.9% | Gambling.com Group is a high-growth affiliate marketer undergoing a strategic pivot to data services, where the core debate pits near-term operational volatility and high balance sheet risk against the long-term value of a widening moat in a higher-quality, recurring revenue business; our analysis concludes that the market has excessively punished the stock for execution risk, creating a compelling, asymmetric risk/reward profile for a founder-led company at a cyclical trough. | $5.13 | -9.8% | $4.50 | -100.0% | Starter | 12-24 | Achieving First Quarter of Positive GAAP Net Income Post-Acquisition. A clean GAAP profit, free from the noise of acquisition-related adjustments, would serve as a powerful de-risking event. It would validate the M&A strategy, prove the pivot is accretive on a fully-costed basis, and directly address the market's primary concern about execution and sustainable profitability. | Major B2B Enterprise Win for OpticOdds. The announcement of a long-term data services contract with a major global gambling operator would provide tangible proof that the company's B2B platform can compete with and win business from large incumbents like Sportradar and Genius Sports. | Execution Failure & Integration Risk. The most significant risk is that the company fails to successfully integrate its large, debt-funded acquisitions and scale the new data services business. This could lead to continued cash burn, failure to realize synergies, and an inability to service its increased debt load, resulting in significant capital impairment. | External Platform & Regulatory Risk. The core affiliate marketing business, which provides the cash flow to fund the strategic pivot, remains highly dependent on Google's search algorithms. Further negative changes could cripple this cash flow engine, jeopardizing the company's ability to invest in growth and service its debt. |
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