NIKE is a Mature Compounder undergoing a painful strategic reset where the core debate pits the durability of its world-class brand against severe operational headwinds and an eroding competitive moat; our analysis concludes that high execution risk and a valuation that offers no margin of safety create an unfavorable risk/reward profile at the current price.
The Investment Rationale: The rationale for an "Unclear" recommendation is that the stock appears to be fairly valued, with the potential for a successful long-term turnaround balanced by significant near-term execution risks, a shrinking competitive moat, and no clear margin of safety at the current price.
Our Core Variant Perception: The market is pricing in a challenging but ultimately successful recovery, reflected in a market-implied Year 5 operating margin of 10.1%. Our analysis concludes that while this outcome is plausible, the market is underappreciating the risk of permanent moat erosion and the time required for the turnaround, leading to a valuation that offers insufficient upside to compensate for these risks.
The Nature of the Bet: This is a long-term, buy-and-hold investment predicated on the continued execution of a proven business model and the compounding of per-share intrinsic value.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Industry Attractiveness | 3/4 | The premium segment of the athletic apparel industry operates as a rational oligopoly, characterized by strong pricing discipline among key Tier 1 and Tier 2 rivals. Competitors such as Lululemon (LULU) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) have maintained or expanded high gross margins, with the peer median Gross Margin standing at 58.4% (compared to the target’s 41.9% TTM). DECK explicitly emphasizes "pricing power" and "full price discipline," indicating that the market structure supports high profitability for differentiated brands, even amid macroeconomic uncertainty. |
| Capital Cycle | 1/4 | The industry is currently in a Repair/Bust phase, driven by the target company’s necessary inventory cleanup and strategic repositioning. While the Tier 1 peer group (LULU, DECK, SKX, ONON) exhibits highly efficient capital deployment (Median ROIC 31.1%), the overall cycle is defined by intentional supply reduction and cost cutting. The target company is aggressively managing down classic franchises and has announced a $2.0 billion "Save to Invest" initiative, reflecting a period of internal distress and restructuring. Furthermore, the target’s capital intensity is low (CapEx 1.1% of revenue) and below maintenance levels (CapEx/Depreciation 66.2%), indicating a pause in growth investment necessary to stabilize the business. |
| Moat Durability (Mature Compounder Lens) | 1/4 | The company’s primary advantage is classified as an Execution-Dependent Pseudo-Moat (Danger Zone), relying on Intangible Assets (Brand) rather than structural lock-in or cost advantage. This is confirmed by the Financial Proof Test: the target’s TTM Gross Margin (41.9%) is 1650 basis points below the Tier 1/2 peer median (58.4%), and its TTM ROIC (11.5%) is 1960 basis points below the peer median (31.1%). The moat is Eroding, as evidenced by the TTM Gross Margin compression from 46.0% (FY2022) to 41.9% (TTM) and management’s acknowledgment of double-digit declines in Digital traffic and revenue due to necessary promotional reductions, indicating a loss of pricing power and brand distinction in the near term. |
Part A: The Company & Its Competitive Environment
Core Business Model & Strategy: NIKE, Inc. is the world's largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel. The company generates revenue through two primary channels: NIKE Direct operations, which include its own retail stores and digital platforms, and sales to wholesale accounts. Management's stated strategy is to achieve long-term profitable growth by leading with sport, creating innovative products, building deep consumer connections, and delivering compelling experiences through both digital and physical retail.
Key Products & Assets: The company's most significant assets are its intangible brands, which form the core of its competitive moat. The portfolio is led by the globally recognized NIKE Brand and is complemented by the powerful Jordan Brand and the iconic Converse brand. These brands cover a wide range of athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, including licensed products for professional and college sports teams.
Competitive Landscape: The athletic apparel industry is highly competitive but features a rational oligopoly in its premium segment. Key rivals include Adidas, as well as high-growth, specialized competitors like Lululemon (LULU) in apparel and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) and On Holding (ONON) in footwear. While the premium segment has demonstrated strong pricing discipline, the broader market remains promotional. In this landscape, NIKE is the incumbent leader facing intense pressure from more focused rivals, as evidenced by its recent negative revenue growth of 7.1% TTM compared to the peer median growth of 12.4%.
Part B: The Historical Situation
NIKE's recent history is a story of a dominant market leader forced into a painful, self-imposed strategic reset. After years of consistent growth and brand leadership, the company has faced a sharp operational downturn. Over the last two fiscal years, performance has deteriorated significantly, with revenue growth decelerating from 9.6% in FY2023 to a decline of 9.8% in FY2025, and operating margins compressing from 12.3% to 8.0% over the same period. This decline was driven by a combination of inventory overhang, a highly promotional marketplace, and the rise of nimble competitors. This financial deterioration has forced management to embark on a difficult turnaround, centered on the "Sport Offense" strategy, which involves intentionally sacrificing near-term revenue to reset the product portfolio, restore brand health, and reignite the innovation pipeline.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Management Narrative Credibility | 4/4 | Management maintains high credibility in its ability to forecast earnings, having met or exceeded quarterly EPS guidance in 17 of the last 18 quarters (94% hit rate). This consistency suggests the current negative guidance is intentional and reliable. |
| Analyst & Sell-Side Conviction | 3/4 | Sell-side conviction is moderate, with seven recent price targets ranging from $68.00 to $115.00, implying significant upside from the current price of $61.93. However, analyst questions on recent calls were highly skeptical, focusing repeatedly on the timeline for inventory cleanup and the confidence in the H2 inflection. |
| Management's Own Conviction (Say vs. Do) | 1/4 | Despite the narrative of a strategic comeback, insiders were net sellers of $-42,367,484.76 over the last 12 months across 15 sales and only 3 purchases. This heavy net selling, particularly by Executive Chairman Mark Parker ($35.9 million sold), contradicts the public optimism. |
| Buy-Side & Institutional Conviction | 2/4 | Institutional conviction is low and degrading, evidenced by net selling of 17,657,099 shares in the most recent quarter. This outflow was driven by major reductions from long-term holders like Wellington Management Group (-11.9 million shares, a 37.1% reduction) and Generation Investment Management (Sold Out). |
| Overall Market Conviction | 1/4 | The stock is in a defined bearish trend, trading below both its 50-day ($67.35) and 200-day ($68.28) simple moving averages. Furthermore, the stock has severely underperformed the broader market, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) by 27.39% over the last 12 months. |
Bull vs. Bear Case Summary
Bull Case Summary:
A "credible comeback story" is underway, driven by a new "Sport Offense" strategy and a multi-year innovation pipeline.
Inventory levels have normalized, ending a period of heavy discounting and setting the stage for margin recovery.
The company's world-class brand and scale provide a durable long-term advantage.
Bear Case Summary:
The competitive moat is eroding, evidenced by a significant profitability gap versus premium peers and a loss of pricing power.
The stock trades at a premium valuation (Forward P/E of 29.3x) that is not justified by its sluggish growth and declining returns on capital.
The turnaround carries high execution risk in a fiercely competitive and promotional market.
Narrative Argument
The Prevailing Market Narrative: The market views NIKE as a high-quality compounder facing temporary but severe headwinds. This skepticism is reflected in the stock's significant underperformance, trailing the S&P 500 by 27.4% over the last 12 months. The central debate is whether the new "Sport Offense" strategy can successfully reignite profitable growth and justify the stock's premium valuation, or if the company is facing a period of structural decline.
Macro & Industry Context: The company is operating against a mixed industry backdrop. The premium segment of the athletic apparel market is structurally attractive and rational, which acts as a tailwind. However, the broader industry is in a "Repair/Bust" phase of the capital cycle, characterized by inventory liquidation and cost-cutting, which is a significant headwind. NIKE's performance has been demonstrably worse than its premium peers, with its TTM operating margin of 7.4% lagging the peer median of 16.3%, indicating the overall environment is a net headwind for the thesis.
Our Differentiated View: While we agree with the market's assessment of the operational challenges, our differentiated view is that the market is underappreciating the degree of structural damage to the company's moat. Our analysis of the industry structure reveals that NIKE's moat is eroding, evidenced by a TTM Gross Margin of 41.9%, which is 1,650 basis points below the peer median of 58.4%, and a TTM Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.5%, which is 1,960 basis points below the peer median of 31.1%. This indicates the brand's pricing power has weakened significantly, and the path to restoring historical profitability will be longer and more difficult than the market currently anticipates.
Conclusion on the Debate: Therefore, while the brand remains powerful and a recovery is plausible, our analysis concludes that the company's competitive moat has been structurally impaired. The high execution risk of the current turnaround, combined with a valuation that already prices in a successful recovery, creates an unfavorable risk/reward profile. The market appears to be underestimating the potential for a permanently lower margin structure in a more competitive industry.
Our Analytical Edge: Our analytical edge comes from a deeper appreciation of the company's intangible assets and switching costs, leading us to believe the market is underestimating the durability of its high returns on capital in the face of perceived short-term threats.
| Metric | Score | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Allocation Skill | 3/4 | Capital returns have been exceptionally well-timed, evidenced by a TTM buyback Opportunism Score of 85.8%. The company has maintained discipline by avoiding M&A. However, returns on internal investment have been weak, with TTM ROIC at 10.5%, slightly below the cost of capital, reflecting the costs of the ongoing strategic reset. |
| Incentive & Ownership Alignment | 1/4 | Alignment is poor. Short-term incentives are tied to generic "Adjusted Revenue" and "Adjusted EBIT" metrics, not per-share value creation. Most critically, personal ownership is de minimis, with the CEO holding an estimated 0.01% and the CFO holding 0.00% of shares, indicating a severe lack of personal financial alignment with shareholders. |
| External Track Record & Experience | 2/4 | The CEO, Elliott J. Hill, is a long-tenured company veteran with over 30 years of experience at Nike. However, he has no prior public company CEO experience or a verifiable external track record of capital stewardship, resulting in a neutral assessment. |
| Board Oversight & Governance | 4/4 | Board oversight is exceptional. The board is 11 of 12 members independent, with separate Chair and CEO roles. Crucially, it includes world-class capital allocators with verifiable public track records, including Apple CEO Timothy Cook and former Intel CEO/CFO Robert Swan, who chairs the Audit Committee. |
Part A: Leadership Assessment
Leadership Track Record: The current CEO, Elliott J. Hill, is a long-tenured company veteran with over 30 years of experience at NIKE, appointed in October 2024. However, he has no prior public company CEO experience, meaning there is no verifiable external track record of his performance as the ultimate capital steward.
Capital Allocation Skill: Our forensic review of the company's capital allocation reveals a mixed but generally positive record. The company has demonstrated exceptional skill in shareholder returns, with a TTM buyback timing score of 85.8%, indicating highly opportunistic repurchases during the recent stock price decline. These buybacks were executed at an average price of $63.14, a 43.3% discount to the 5-year average. However, the effectiveness of internal reinvestment is currently weak, with the TTM Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) at 11.5%, which is below the peer median of 31.1% and reflects the high cost of the ongoing strategic reset.
Credibility & Communication: Our analysis of recent earnings call transcripts suggests management communicates with a high degree of credibility. This is quantitatively supported by an exceptional quarterly guidance hit rate, where the company has met or exceeded consensus EPS estimates in 17 of the last 18 quarters (a 94% success rate), indicating their forecasts are reliable.
Part B: Governance & Alignment Scorecard
Board Independence: 83.3% (10 of 12 directors)
Chairman/CEO Roles: Separate
Chairman Tenure: Not Disclosed
Insider Ownership: 1.1% (All Execs & Directors)
Shareholder Rights: Declassified Board, Majority Voting
Part C: Final Stewardship Verdict
Part A: Final Method Marks Table
| Method | Implied Value / Share | Weight | Contribution ($/sh) | vs. Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF (PWER) | $54.42 | 40.0% | $21.77 | -15.4% (Downside) |
| Comps | $16.89 | 10.0% | $1.69 | -73.7% (Downside) |
| Historicals | $60.49 | 25.0% | $15.12 | -6.0% (Downside) |
| Price Targets | $88.43 | 25.0% | $22.11 | +37.5% (Upside) |
| Weighted Implied Value | $60.69 | 100.0% | $60.69 | -5.7% (Downside) |
Part B: Valuation & Weighting Justification
DCF (PWER)
Weight Justification: The DCF is assigned the highest weight, consistent with the company's Mature Compounder archetype. However, the weight is capped at 40% due to significant near-term uncertainty. The company is in the midst of a strategic reset, leading to a 50.1% decline in operating cash flow in FY2025 and a high degree of execution risk embedded in the forecast. While the DCF appropriately models a long-term recovery, the high terminal value contribution (82.7% of Enterprise Value) makes the valuation sensitive to assumptions about this recovery, warranting a more conservative weight than would be applied to a stable-state compounder.
Valuation Context: Based on PWER-weighted scenarios from the DCF Valuation Calculation.
Comps
Weight Justification: The Comparable Companies analysis is assigned a low weight. The selected peer group, while representing sector rivals, is a poor fit from a financial performance standpoint. The company is currently in a "Repair/Bust" capital cycle phase with negative revenue growth (-7.1%) and compressed margins (7.4% operating margin), while the peer median reflects strong growth (+12.4%) and much higher profitability (16.3% operating margin). This significant operational mismatch makes the peer median multiple an unreliable benchmark for NKE's intrinsic value during its strategic reset, resulting in an extremely low implied value.
Valuation Context: Based on a qualitatively-adjusted peer median EV/EBITDA multiple from the Qualitatively-Adjusted Multiples Valuation.
Historicals
Weight Justification: Historical Multiples are assigned a moderate weight. While the company has a long history as a premium-valued asset, it is currently undergoing a significant strategic reset that constitutes a structural break from its past operational profile. This is evidenced by the intentional revenue sacrifice and severe margin compression in FY2025. Although the multiples used in the Qualitatively-Adjusted Multiples Valuation were discounted to reflect this, the fundamental relevance of historical valuation is diminished during this period of transition, warranting a more conservative weight.
Valuation Context: Blend of adjusted historical multiples (60% P/FCF, 40% P/E) from the Qualitatively-Adjusted Multiples Valuation.
Price Targets
Weight Justification: Analyst Price Targets are assigned a significant weight. The company is well-covered, and management has a strong track record of meeting or exceeding quarterly EPS guidance (94% hit rate over 18 quarters), which provides a reliable basis for analyst models. However, the weight is capped at 25% due to the wide dispersion in published targets (from $68 to $115), which reflects significant disagreement among analysts regarding the timing and success of the company's strategic reset.
Valuation Context: Average of 7 targets published between August 2025 and October 2025.
Part C: Defining the Margin of Safety
Valuation Floor: $31.40
Justification: The valuation floor is anchored to the Bear Case DCF value of $31.40, which models a permanent erosion of the company's moat and margin compression.
Part D: Defining the Range of Outcomes (Scenario Analysis)
Base Case Narrative & Assumptions: Our Base Case models a 'Challenging Recovery' where revenue stabilizes after an initial decline and operating margins gradually recover from 7.5% to a normalized 13.4% by Year 5, driven by the successful execution of the "Sport Offense" strategy and cost-saving initiatives.
Bull Case Narrative & Assumptions ("Blue-Sky Potential"): Our Bull Case models an 'Accelerated Innovation Payoff' where the new product pipeline gains traction faster than anticipated, with revenue growth averaging 6.0% and operating margins expanding rapidly to 16.0% by Year 5. This scenario implies a potential 'blue-sky' valuation of $84.53 per share.
Bear Case Narrative & Assumptions (The Floor Value): Our Bear Case DCF models a 'Permanent Moat Erosion' scenario with stagnant revenue growth and operating margins failing to recover, remaining below 10.0%. This scenario, which reflects a failed turnaround and permanent market share loss, results in a floor value of $31.40 per share.
Part A: Key Catalysts
Catalyst #1: Successful Launch of New Innovation Pipeline. A successful launch of new products, such as the Pegasus 41 and Air Max DN, that leads to a tangible re-acceleration of organic growth would validate the "Sport Offense" strategy, prove the brand's pricing power is intact, and shift market sentiment.
Impact: High
Likelihood: Medium
Timing: Mid-Term (6-18 months)
Supporting Evidence: Management commentary from recent earnings calls has consistently highlighted the multi-year innovation cycle as the primary driver of the company's comeback plan, with specific product launches named as key milestones for the second half of fiscal 2026.
Catalyst #2: Stabilization and Return to Growth in Greater China. A demonstrated turnaround in this key market, which has been a major source of operational and sentiment overhang, would remove a significant headwind and signal a return to broad-based global growth.
Impact: High
Likelihood: Low
Timing: Long-Term (18+ months)
Supporting Evidence: Management has repeatedly cited Greater China as a structural challenge due to a highly promotional digital marketplace and soft traffic, confirming that a turnaround will require significant time and investment in refreshing store concepts and improving sell-through.
Catalyst #3: Tangible Margin Expansion from Cost Savings. Clear evidence that the $2.0 billion "Save to Invest" initiative is flowing through to the bottom line, leading to operating margin expansion ahead of schedule, would increase confidence in the company's ability to achieve its long-term profitability targets.
Impact: Moderate
Likelihood: Medium
Timing: Mid-Term (6-18 months)
Supporting Evidence: The $2.0 billion cost-saving plan was formally announced in December 2023 and has been a recurring theme in management's strategic communications as a key lever for funding future growth and improving efficiency.
Part B: Context for Timeliness
Risk #1: Failed Turnaround Execution & Permanent Moat Erosion. The most significant risk is that the "Sport Offense" strategy fails to resonate with consumers, new products underperform, and the brand loses permanent market share to nimbler competitors like Hoka and On, leading to a prolonged period of stagnant growth and margin compression.
Supporting Factors: Our industry analysis concludes the company's moat is actively eroding, evidenced by a TTM Gross Margin of 41.9% (1,650 basis points below the peer median) and a TTM ROIC of 11.5% (1,960 basis points below the peer median). Recent institutional filings show net selling of 17.7 million shares, indicating low buy-side conviction in the turnaround.
Existing Mitigants: The primary mitigant is the company's world-class board, which includes highly experienced capital allocators like Apple CEO Tim Cook and former Intel CEO Robert Swan, providing strong strategic oversight. The brand's long history and global scale also provide a buffer.
Residual Concern: High
Risk #2: Sustained Margin Compression. A key risk is that the company is unable to restore its historical high-teens operating margins due to a permanently more promotional competitive environment and structural cost headwinds, such as tariffs on goods from China and Vietnam.
Supporting Factors: Management commentary on recent earnings calls confirmed that new tariffs could add an estimated $1.5 billion in incremental costs. The marketplace, particularly in Greater China and EMEA, remains highly promotional, limiting pricing power.
Existing Mitigants: Management has initiated a $2.0 billion "Save to Invest" program aimed at streamlining the organization and offsetting cost pressures. The company is also shifting its product mix toward higher-margin performance innovation.
Residual Concern: Medium
Part A: Implementation Parameters
Suggested Entry Target (USD): N/A
Entry Target Rationale: An entry target is not applicable as the investment recommendation is not 'Buy'.
Stop-Loss Target (USD): 52.28
Stop-Loss Rationale: The primary stop-loss is fundamental, tied to the "Thesis Killer" event. A secondary, hard stop at a weekly close below the 2-year technical low of $52.28 would signal a complete loss of market confidence and a potential re-rating to a much lower multiple.
Recommended Position Size: None
Position Sizing Rationale: A position is not recommended as our analysis concludes the stock is fairly valued, offering an unattractive risk/reward profile with a -5.7% expected downside to our valuation target.
Recommended Time Horizon: N/A
Time Horizon Rationale: Not applicable as the recommendation is not 'Buy'.
Part B: Thesis Monitoring Plan
Key Monitoring Factors:
1. Margin & Revenue Inflection: Track quarterly revenue growth and gross margin trends, specifically monitoring for the guided H2 FY2026 inflection point from negative to positive growth.
2. Competitive Performance: Monitor market share data in key categories (Running, Basketball) against high-growth competitors like Hoka and On to validate the "Sport Offense" strategy.
3. Cost Program Execution: Watch for tangible evidence of the $2.0 billion "Save to Invest" program impacting the SG&A line and contributing to operating margin expansion.
Thesis Invalidation ("Thesis Killer"): The thesis would be invalidated if, after 12-18 months, there is no tangible evidence of the new product innovation cycle gaining traction (i.e., continued market share losses and stagnant organic growth), forcing management to revert to heavy, widespread promotional activity to drive sales. This would confirm the brand's pricing power is permanently impaired.
Price Targets: Last 6M ending 2025-11-25
Latest per analyst within window.
| Analyst | Published | Price @ Post | Price Target | % PT vs Price @ Post |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | 2025-10-14 | $67.64 | $100.00 | +47.8% |
| KeyBanc | 2025-10-02 | $74.20 | $90.00 | +21.3% |
| Stifel Nicolaus | 2025-10-01 | $69.73 | $68.00 | -2.5% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2025-09-25 | $69.24 | $85.00 | +22.8% |
| UBS | 2025-09-19 | $72.10 | $71.00 | -1.5% |
| RBC Capital | 2025-09-18 | $72.33 | $90.00 | +24.4% |
| Jefferies | 2025-08-22 | $78.38 | $115.00 | +46.7% |
Guidance Hit Rate (Annual)
Hit defined as Actual ≥ Estimate.
| FYE Date | Rev Est (M USD) | Rev Actual (M USD) | % Diff | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Diff ($) | Rev Hit | EPS Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | 45,913 | 46,309 | +0.9% | 2.15 | 2.17 | +0.02 | Yes | Yes |
| 2024-05-31 | 51,633 | 51,362 | -0.5% | 3.70 | 3.76 | +0.06 | No | Yes |
| 2023-05-31 | 51,469 | 51,217 | -0.5% | 3.28 | 3.27 | -0.01 | No | No |
| 2022-05-31 | 46,560 | 46,710 | +0.3% | 3.67 | 3.83 | +0.16 | Yes | Yes |
| 2021-05-31 | 43,240 | 44,538 | +3.0% | 3.14 | 3.64 | +0.50 | Yes | Yes |
Guidance Hit Rate (Quarterly)
Hit defined as Actual ≥ Estimate.
| Report Date | Rev Est (M USD) | Rev Actual (M USD) | % Diff | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Diff ($) | Rev Hit | EPS Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | 10,990 | 11,720 | +6.6% | 0.27 | 0.49 | +0.22 | Yes | Yes |
| 2025-06-26 | 10,728 | 11,097 | +3.4% | 0.13 | 0.14 | +0.01 | Yes | Yes |
| 2025-03-20 | 11,018 | 11,269 | +2.3% | 0.30 | 0.54 | +0.24 | Yes | Yes |
| 2024-12-19 | 12,130 | 12,354 | +1.8% | 0.65 | 0.78 | +0.13 | Yes | Yes |
| 2024-10-01 | 11,643 | 11,589 | -0.5% | 0.52 | 0.70 | +0.18 | No | Yes |
| 2024-06-27 | 12,861 | 12,606 | -2.0% | 0.83 | 1.01 | +0.18 | No | Yes |
| 2024-03-21 | 12,280 | 12,429 | +1.2% | 0.74 | 0.98 | +0.24 | Yes | Yes |
| 2023-12-21 | 12,324 | 13,388 | +8.6% | 0.85 | 1.03 | +0.18 | Yes | Yes |
| 2023-09-28 | 12,986 | 12,939 | -0.4% | 0.75 | 0.94 | +0.19 | No | Yes |
| 2023-06-29 | 12,590 | 12,825 | +1.9% | 0.67 | 0.66 | -0.01 | Yes | No |
| 2023-03-21 | 12,569 | 12,390 | -1.4% | 0.55 | 0.79 | +0.24 | No | Yes |
| 2022-12-20 | 12,581 | 13,315 | +5.8% | 0.64 | 0.85 | +0.21 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-09-29 | 12,280 | 12,687 | +3.3% | 0.92 | 0.93 | +0.01 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-06-27 | 12,061 | 12,234 | +1.4% | 0.81 | 0.90 | +0.09 | Yes | Yes |
| 2022-03-21 | 10,598 | 10,871 | +2.6% | 0.71 | 0.87 | +0.16 | Yes | Yes |
| 2021-12-20 | 10,622 | 11,357 | +6.9% | 0.63 | 0.83 | +0.20 | Yes | Yes |
| 2021-09-23 | 11,811 | 12,248 | +3.7% | 1.11 | 1.16 | +0.05 | Yes | Yes |
| 2021-06-24 | 12,131 | 12,344 | +1.8% | 0.51 | 0.93 | +0.42 | Yes | Yes |
Appendix: Financial Statements - NKE
TTM and Latest (Q) Data as of: 2025-08-31
Income Statement
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 46,440.0 | 46,309.0 | 51,362.0 | 51,217.0 | 46,710.0 | 44,538.0 |
| Cost of Revenue | 26,964.0 | 26,519.0 | 28,475.0 | 28,925.0 | 25,231.0 | 24,576.0 |
| Gross Profit | 19,476.0 | 19,790.0 | 22,887.0 | 22,292.0 | 21,479.0 | 19,962.0 |
| SG&A | 16,056.0 | 16,088.0 | 16,576.0 | 16,377.0 | 14,804.0 | 13,025.0 |
| R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Operating Expenses | 16,056.0 | 16,088.0 | 16,576.0 | 16,377.0 | 14,804.0 | 13,025.0 |
| Operating Income | 3,420.0 | 3,702.0 | 6,311.0 | 5,915.0 | 6,675.0 | 6,937.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,199.0 | 4,553.0 | 7,383.0 | 7,054.0 | 7,696.0 | 7,720.0 |
| EBIT | 3,418.0 | 3,778.0 | 6,539.0 | 6,195.0 | 6,856.0 | 6,923.0 |
| Interest Expense | -82.0 | -107.0 | -161.0 | -6.0 | 205.0 | 262.0 |
| Tax Expense | 605.0 | 666.0 | 1,000.0 | 1,131.0 | 605.0 | 934.0 |
| Net Income (Cmn) | 2,895.0 | 3,219.0 | 5,700.0 | 5,070.0 | 6,046.0 | 5,727.0 |
| Net Income | 2,895.0 | 3,219.0 | 5,700.0 | 5,070.0 | 6,046.0 | 5,727.0 |
| EPS | $0.49 | $2.17 | $3.76 | $3.27 | $3.83 | $3.64 |
| EPS Diluted | $0.49 | $2.16 | $3.73 | $3.23 | $3.75 | $3.56 |
| Shares (WA) | 1,476.6M | 1,484.9M | 1,517.6M | 1,551.6M | 1,578.8M | 1,573.0M |
| Shares (Diluted) | 1,479.0M | 1,487.6M | 1,529.7M | 1,569.8M | 1,610.8M | 1,609.4M |
| DPS | $0.40 | $1.57 | $1.45 | $1.32 | $1.19 | $1.07 |
Income Statement - Supplemental
| Item | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -7.1% | -9.8% | 0.3% | 9.6% | 4.9% | - |
| Gross Margin | 41.9% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| SG&A Margin | 34.6% | 34.7% | 32.3% | 32.0% | 31.7% | 29.2% |
| R&D Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 15.6% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
Balance Sheet
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | Latest (Q) | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 7,024.0 | 7,464.0 | 9,860.0 | 7,441.0 | 8,574.0 | 9,889.0 |
| Receivables | 4,962.0 | 4,717.0 | 4,427.0 | 4,131.0 | 4,667.0 | 4,463.0 |
| Inventory | 8,114.0 | 7,489.0 | 7,519.0 | 8,454.0 | 8,420.0 | 6,854.0 |
| Current Assets | 23,898.0 | 23,362.0 | 25,382.0 | 25,202.0 | 28,213.0 | 26,291.0 |
| PP&E (Net) | 7,588.0 | 7,540.0 | 7,718.0 | 8,004.0 | 7,717.0 | 8,017.0 |
| Intangibles | 499.0 | 499.0 | 499.0 | 555.0 | 570.0 | 511.0 |
| Non-Current Assets | 13,436.0 | 13,217.0 | 12,728.0 | 12,329.0 | 12,108.0 | 11,449.0 |
| Total Assets | 37,334.0 | 36,579.0 | 38,110.0 | 37,531.0 | 40,321.0 | 37,740.0 |
| Payables | 3,772.0 | 3,479.0 | 2,851.0 | 2,862.0 | 3,358.0 | 2,836.0 |
| Current Liabilities | 10,911.0 | 10,566.0 | 10,593.0 | 9,256.0 | 10,730.0 | 9,674.0 |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 12,955.0 | 12,800.0 | 13,087.0 | 14,271.0 | 14,310.0 | 15,299.0 |
| Total Liabilities | 23,866.0 | 23,366.0 | 23,680.0 | 23,527.0 | 25,040.0 | 24,973.0 |
| Debt | 11,061.0 | 11,018.0 | 11,952.0 | 12,144.0 | 12,627.0 | 12,813.0 |
| Equity | 13,468.0 | 13,213.0 | 14,430.0 | 14,004.0 | 15,281.0 | 12,767.0 |
Balance Sheet - Supplemental
| Item | Latest (Q) | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible Book | 12,969.0 | 12,714.0 | 13,931.0 | 13,449.0 | 14,711.0 | 12,256.0 |
| Net Debt | 4,037.0 | 3,554.0 | 2,092.0 | 4,703.0 | 4,053.0 | 2,924.0 |
| Debt/Equity | 82.1% | 83.4% | 82.8% | 86.7% | 82.6% | 100.4% |
| Debt/Assets | 29.6% | 30.1% | 31.4% | 32.4% | 31.3% | 34.0% |
Cash Flow Statement
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted.
| Item | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Cash from Ops | 3,526.0 | 3,698.0 | 7,429.0 | 5,841.0 | 5,188.0 | 6,657.0 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | 781.0 | 775.0 | 844.0 | 859.0 | 840.0 | 797.0 |
| CapEx | -517.0 | -430.0 | -812.0 | -969.0 | -758.0 | -695.0 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -168.0 | -275.0 | 894.0 | 564.0 | -1,524.0 | -3,800.0 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4,796.0 | -5,820.0 | -5,888.0 | -7,447.0 | -4,836.0 | -1,459.0 |
| Net Cash Flow | -1,461.0 | -2,396.0 | 2,419.0 | -1,133.0 | -1,315.0 | 1,541.0 |
Cash Flow Statement - Supplemental
| Item | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | 4,043.0 | 4,128.0 | 8,241.0 | 6,810.0 | 5,946.0 | 7,352.0 |
| FCF Margin | 8.7% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 16.5% |
Historical Ratios & Multiples - NKE
Historical data as of Fiscal Year End. TTM Market Data as of 2025-11-26; TTM Financial Data as of 2025-08-31.
Valuation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $95.09B | $126.46B | -24.8% | $161.43B | -41.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $99.13B | $129.91B | -23.7% | $164.89B | -39.9% |
| EV/Sales | 2.1x | 2.6x | -18.3% | 3.5x | -38.7% |
| EV/EBIT | 29.0x | 24.5x | +18.4% | 27.3x | +6.2% |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 21.1x | +11.8% | 23.9x | -1.4% |
| EV/FCF | 32.9x | 28.4x | +15.9% | 33.7x | -2.3% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 2.5x | -21.1% | 3.4x | -41.2% |
| P/E | 32.8x | 28.2x | +16.2% | 31.6x | +3.9% |
| P/FCF | 31.6x | 27.6x | +14.3% | 33.0x | -4.1% |
| P/B | 7.1x | 9.1x | -22.0% | 11.7x | -39.4% |
| P/Tangible Book | 2.6x | 9.5x | -72.7% | 12.2x | -78.8% |
| Graham Number | 20.06 | 24.99 | -19.7% | 25.93 | -22.6% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $95.09B | $107.78B | $107.07B | $164.52B | $175.08B | $252.68B |
| Enterprise Value | $99.13B | $111.34B | $109.16B | $169.22B | $179.14B | $255.60B |
| EV/Sales | 2.1x | 2.4x | 2.1x | 3.3x | 3.8x | 5.7x |
| EV/EBIT | 29.0x | 29.5x | 16.7x | 27.3x | 26.1x | 36.9x |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 24.5x | 14.8x | 24.0x | 23.3x | 33.1x |
| EV/FCF | 32.9x | 34.1x | 16.5x | 34.7x | 40.4x | 42.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 2.3x | 2.1x | 3.2x | 3.7x | 5.7x |
| P/E | 32.8x | 33.5x | 18.8x | 32.4x | 29.0x | 44.1x |
| P/FCF | 31.6x | 33.0x | 16.2x | 33.8x | 39.5x | 42.4x |
| P/B | 7.1x | 8.2x | 7.4x | 11.7x | 11.5x | 19.8x |
| P/Tangible Book | 2.6x | 8.5x | 7.7x | 12.2x | 11.9x | 20.6x |
| Graham Number | 20.06 | 20.84 | 28.36 | 25.77 | 28.88 | 25.78 |
Growth
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -7.1% | 0.0% | -7.2% | 4.8% | -12.0% |
| FCF YoY | -58.3% | -1.6% | -56.7% | 59.1% | -117.4% |
| Equity YoY | -3.4% | -4.6% | +1.2% | 12.9% | -16.3% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -7.1% | -9.8% | 0.3% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 19.1% |
| FCF YoY | -58.3% | -50.6% | 35.8% | 10.0% | -25.7% | 326.2% |
| Equity YoY | -3.4% | -8.4% | 3.0% | -8.4% | 19.7% | 58.5% |
Profitability & Quality
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 41.9% | 43.6% | -1.7% | 44.3% | -2.4% |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 43.6% | -36.2% | 44.3% | -37.0% |
| EBIT Margin | 7.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 12.6% | -5.3% |
| Pretax Margin | 7.5% | 11.2% | -3.6% | 12.5% | -5.0% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 9.3% | -3.1% | 10.8% | -4.6% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 17.3% | 16.8% | +0.5% | 14.7% | +2.6% |
| Operating CF Margin | 7.6% | 11.3% | -3.7% | 12.0% | -4.4% |
| FCF Yield | 3.2% | 4.1% | -0.9% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| ROA | 7.7% | 12.3% | -4.6% | 13.7% | -6.0% |
| ROCE | 12.9% | 19.7% | -6.8% | 22.0% | -9.1% |
| ROE | 21.2% | 32.5% | -11.3% | 37.9% | -16.7% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 7.9% | 12.6% | -4.7% | 13.7% | -5.8% |
| ROIC | 11.5% | 17.2% | -5.7% | 19.2% | -7.7% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 41.9% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| EBIT Margin | 7.4% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 15.5% |
| Pretax Margin | 7.5% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.0% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 17.3% | 17.1% | 14.9% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 14.0% |
| Operating CF Margin | 7.6% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 14.9% |
| FCF Yield | 3.2% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| ROA | 7.7% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 16.1% |
| ROCE | 12.9% | 14.1% | 23.4% | 21.4% | 23.8% | 27.1% |
| ROE | 21.2% | 23.3% | 40.2% | 34.0% | 40.7% | 51.4% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 7.9% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| ROIC | 11.5% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 18.2% | 21.3% | 23.0% |
Capital Structure & Liquidity
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.32 | 0.48 | -33.5% | 0.47 | -32.7% |
| Cash Ratio | 0.64 | 0.81 | -20.9% | 0.85 | -24.5% |
| Current Ratio | 2.19 | 2.44 | -10.4% | 2.54 | -13.6% |
| Quick Ratio | 1.45 | 1.67 | -13.2% | 1.77 | -18.3% |
| Debt/Assets | 0.64 | 0.63 | +1.6% | 0.63 | +0.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.77 | 1.70 | +4.5% | 1.74 | +2.0% |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 1.3% | 1.4% | -0.0% | 1.4% | -0.0% |
| Interest Coverage | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.0x | 0.6x | +66.7% | 0.5x | +82.4% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| Cash Ratio | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.02 |
| Current Ratio | 2.19 | 2.21 | 2.40 | 2.72 | 2.63 | 2.72 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.69 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 2.01 |
| Debt/Assets | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.64 | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.96 |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Interest Coverage | n/a | -35.31 | -40.61 | -1,032.50 | 33.44 | 26.42 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.0x | 0.8x | 0.3x | 0.7x | 0.5x | 0.4x |
Efficiency & Turnover
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | % Chg vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | % Chg vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.24 | 1.31 | -5.0% | 1.27 | -2.6% |
| Receivables Turnover | 9.58 | 11.26 | -14.9% | 11.27 | -15.0% |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 6.14 | 6.37 | -3.6% | 6.13 | +0.3% |
| Payables Turnover | 7.95 | 9.22 | -13.8% | 9.09 | -12.6% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Receivables Turnover | 9.58 | 10.13 | 12.00 | 11.64 | 10.23 | 12.35 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 6.14 | 6.07 | 6.53 | 6.52 | 5.94 | 5.57 |
| Payables Turnover | 7.95 | 8.38 | 9.97 | 9.30 | 8.15 | 9.67 |
Capital Allocation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | Delta vs 3Y | 5Y Avg | Delta vs 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | 1.8% | +0.4% | 1.4% | +0.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.82 | 0.51 | +61.6% | 0.42 | +92.5% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.4% | 1.5% | -0.4% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 66.2% | 88.2% | -22.0% | 88.4% | -22.2% |
Historical Data
| Metric | TTM | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| CapEx / Revenue | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 66.2% | 55.5% | 96.2% | 112.8% | 90.2% | 87.2% |
Comparable Companies - NKE
As of 2025-11-25; Current Price: $63.68
Peer Average/Median exclude target.
Selection based on Dual-Axis Scoring: Product Fit vs. Financial Fit (1-5 Scale).
Averages and Medians exclude extreme outliers (Growth > 1,000% or < -100%) and metrics with mixed signs.
Peer Selection Rationale
ONON (Tier 1: Direct Rival | Prod: 5/5, Fin: 3/5): Direct competitor in high-performance athletic footwear and apparel. Selected as a Tier 1 rival despite a significant financial mismatch, as ONON is in a hypergrowth phase (33.3% growth) compared to NKE's negative growth (-7.1%). The Product Score 5 overrides the size constraint penalty.
LULU (Tier 2: Sector Peer | Prod: 4/5, Fin: 3/5): A primary competitor in the premium athletic apparel and lifestyle segment. Selected as a Tier 2 peer. While LULU exhibits much higher margins (22.9% vs 7.4%) and positive growth (9.2% vs -7.1%), the size (0.22x) is acceptable, allowing for an F=3 score based on industry relevance.
SKX (Tier 2: Sector Peer | Prod: 4/5, Fin: 3/5): A direct footwear competitor (Tier 2). This peer offers strong financial comparability on profitability metrics, with similar margins (8.9% vs 7.4%) and ROIC (11.2% vs 11.5%). The size ratio is exactly 0.10x, which is the minimum threshold for an F=3 score.
DECK (Tier 2: Sector Peer | Prod: 4/5, Fin: 3/5): A key competitor in the footwear and lifestyle segment (Hoka, Ugg). Selected as a Tier 2 peer. Although DECK has significantly higher margins (23.5% vs 7.4%) and growth (12.6% vs -7.1%), the size (0.13x) is acceptable, and the direct product overlap justifies the selection.
Valuation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $95.09B | $13.48B | +605.2% | $14.28B | +566.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $99.13B | $12.70B | +680.2% | $14.25B | +595.4% |
| EV/Sales | 2.1x | 2.1x | +2.4% | 2.3x | -6.6% |
| EV/EBIT | 29.0x | 10.8x | +168.5% | 19.0x | +52.8% |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 9.2x | +157.9% | 14.0x | +68.9% |
| EV/FCF | 32.9x | 28.8x | +14.6% | 52.8x | -37.5% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 2.1x | -7.0% | 2.3x | -14.0% |
| P/E | 32.8x | 13.4x | +144.8% | 22.5x | +45.9% |
| P/FCF | 31.6x | 29.2x | +8.2% | 50.3x | -37.1% |
| P/B | 7.1x | 5.0x | +43.4% | 4.8x | +46.4% |
| P/Tangible Book | 2.6x | 3.1x | -16.7% | 3.1x | -17.5% |
| Graham Number | 20.06 | 53.41 | -62.4% | 56.59 | -64.6% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $95.09B | $14.26B | $20.64B | $9.49B | $12.71B |
| Enterprise Value | $99.13B | $13.77B | $21.25B | $10.36B | $11.64B |
| EV/Sales | 2.1x | 3.9x | 1.9x | 1.1x | 2.2x |
| EV/EBIT | 29.0x | 46.0x | 8.3x | 12.7x | 8.9x |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 30.6x | 7.0x | 9.9x | 8.4x |
| EV/FCF | 32.9x | 39.3x | 18.2x | 141.6x | 11.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 4.0x | 1.9x | 1.0x | 2.4x |
| P/E | 32.8x | 51.5x | 11.6x | 14.3x | 12.5x |
| P/FCF | 31.6x | 40.7x | 17.7x | 129.7x | 13.0x |
| P/B | 7.1x | 7.5x | 4.7x | 2.0x | 5.2x |
| P/Tangible Book | 2.6x | 5.3x | 2.8x | 1.0x | 3.4x |
| Graham Number | 20.06 | 9.46 | 110.07 | 56.33 | 50.48 |
Growth
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -7.1% | 12.4% | -19.5% | 16.8% | -23.9% |
| FCF YoY | -58.3% | -22.5% | -35.8% | -30.7% | -27.6% |
| Equity YoY | -3.4% | 12.0% | -15.4% | 13.7% | -17.1% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | -7.1% | 33.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% |
| FCF YoY | -58.3% | -13.6% | -31.3% | -90.9% | 13.0% |
| Equity YoY | -3.4% | 21.8% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 10.9% |
Profitability & Quality
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 41.9% | 58.4% | -16.5% | 58.0% | -16.1% |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 16.3% | -9.0% | 16.3% | -8.9% |
| EBIT Margin | 7.4% | 16.0% | -54.0% | 16.3% | -54.9% |
| Pretax Margin | 7.5% | 16.0% | -8.5% | 15.8% | -8.3% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 12.1% | -5.9% | 12.7% | -6.5% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 17.3% | 20.3% | -3.0% | 17.9% | -0.6% |
| Operating CF Margin | 7.6% | 14.6% | -7.0% | 14.1% | -6.5% |
| FCF Yield | 3.2% | 4.1% | -0.9% | 4.1% | -1.0% |
| ROA | 7.7% | 16.5% | -8.8% | 16.8% | -9.1% |
| ROCE | 12.9% | 31.0% | -18.2% | 30.5% | -17.6% |
| ROE | 21.2% | 27.9% | -6.7% | 28.2% | -7.0% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 7.9% | 17.3% | -9.4% | 17.2% | -9.4% |
| ROIC | 11.5% | 31.1% | -19.6% | 43.6% | -32.1% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 41.9% | 62.4% | 59.1% | 52.7% | 57.7% |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 9.8% | 22.9% | 8.9% | 23.5% |
| EBIT Margin | 7.4% | 8.4% | 23.3% | 8.7% | 24.9% |
| Pretax Margin | 7.5% | 6.4% | 23.3% | 8.7% | 24.8% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 7.1% | 19.4% |
| Effective Tax Rate | 17.3% | 1.1% | 29.9% | 18.6% | 21.9% |
| Operating CF Margin | 7.6% | 11.7% | 17.5% | 6.8% | 20.3% |
| FCF Yield | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 7.7% |
| ROA | 7.7% | 8.9% | 24.1% | 7.6% | 26.8% |
| ROCE | 12.9% | 16.8% | 45.2% | 12.8% | 47.0% |
| ROE | 21.2% | 15.5% | 42.1% | 14.9% | 40.3% |
| Return on Tangible Assets | 7.9% | 10.3% | 24.3% | 7.3% | 27.0% |
| ROIC | 11.5% | 17.9% | 44.2% | 11.2% | 101.2% |
Capital Structure & Liquidity
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.32 | 0.91 | -65.1% | 1.29 | -75.3% |
| Cash Ratio | 0.64 | 1.01 | -36.5% | 1.02 | -36.9% |
| Current Ratio | 2.19 | 2.41 | -9.1% | 2.50 | -12.2% |
| Quick Ratio | 1.45 | 1.67 | -13.2% | 1.67 | -13.6% |
| Debt/Assets | 0.64 | 0.42 | +52.7% | 0.41 | +57.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.77 | 0.75 | +136.3% | 0.71 | +148.5% |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 1.3% | 1.6% | -13.9% | 1.6% | -15.3% |
| Interest Coverage | n/a | 242.98 | nmf | 242.98 | nmf |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.0x | nmf | nmf | nmf | nmf |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow Coverage | 0.32 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 0.29 | 3.04 |
| Cash Ratio | 0.64 | 1.28 | 0.74 | 0.59 | 1.46 |
| Current Ratio | 2.19 | 2.55 | 2.27 | 2.10 | 3.07 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.45 | 2.05 | 1.16 | 1.29 | 2.20 |
| Debt/Assets | 0.64 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.77 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 0.54 |
| Intangibles / Total Assets | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Interest Coverage | n/a | 18.95 | n/a | n/a | 467.02 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.0x | -0.9x | 0.2x | 0.8x | -0.8x |
Efficiency & Turnover
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | % vs Med | Average | % vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.24 | 1.26 | -1.7% | 1.27 | -2.1% |
| Receivables Turnover | 9.58 | 11.81 | -18.9% | 28.17 | -66.0% |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 6.14 | 5.19 | +18.4% | 5.59 | +9.9% |
| Payables Turnover | 7.95 | 5.43 | +46.3% | 7.06 | +12.5% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Turnover | 1.24 | 1.14 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| Receivables Turnover | 9.58 | 11.07 | 81.35 | 7.72 | 12.56 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 6.14 | 6.99 | 3.39 | 2.90 | 9.10 |
| Payables Turnover | 7.95 | 6.99 | 13.50 | 3.88 | 3.88 |
Capital Allocation
Comparative Analysis
| Metric | NKE | Median | Delta vs Med | Average | Delta vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | 0.0% | +2.2% | 0.0% | +2.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.82 | 0.00 | nmf | 0.00 | nmf |
| CapEx / Revenue | 1.1% | 3.9% | -71.7% | 4.1% | -72.7% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 66.2% | 133.3% | -50.3% | 142.0% | -53.4% |
Peer Data (TTM)
| Metric | NKE | ONON | LULU | SKX | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CapEx / Revenue | 1.1% | 1.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| CapEx / Depreciation | 66.2% | 53.5% | 154.5% | 248.0% | 112.1% |
Buyback Timing Analysis - NKE (Ref Price: $64.33 | 5Y Avg Price: $111.40)
| Period | Buybacks ($M) | Net Share Δ | Avg Price | Tranche ROI | vs 5Y Avg | EV/EBITDA | vs 5Y | P/TB | vs 5Y | Timing Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | 48.0 | -3.2M | $63.14 | 1.9% | -43.3% | 24.5x | -5.6% | 8.5x | -33.1% | 85.8% |
| 2025-02-28 | 451.0 | -9.4M | $75.53 | -14.8% | -32.2% | 14.3x | -44.7% | 6.1x | -51.9% | 91.3% |
| 2024-11-30 | 882.0 | -12.0M | $80.26 | -19.9% | -28.0% | 17.4x | -33.0% | 8.1x | -36.3% | 82.9% |
| 2024-08-31 | 1,053.0 | -14.8M | $81.77 | -21.3% | -26.6% | 17.8x | -31.4% | 9.0x | -28.8% | 75.2% |
| 2024-05-31 | 846.0 | -9.7M | $94.15 | -31.7% | -15.5% | 15.0x | -42.3% | 7.8x | -38.7% | 80.3% |
| 2024-02-29 | 733.0 | -5.6M | $107.56 | -40.2% | -3.5% | 20.0x | -22.9% | 9.9x | -21.9% | 57.7% |
| 2023-11-30 | 970.0 | -11.2M | $100.82 | -36.2% | -9.5% | 23.1x | -10.9% | 11.5x | -9.3% | 58.2% |
| 2023-08-31 | 1,034.0 | -12.7M | $107.45 | -40.1% | -3.5% | 22.7x | -12.3% | 11.2x | -11.9% | 55.5% |
| 2023-05-31 | 1,141.0 | -8.8M | $120.51 | -46.6% | +8.2% | 24.4x | -5.9% | 12.4x | -1.9% | 40.6% |
| 2023-02-28 | 1,398.0 | -7.6M | $119.97 | -46.4% | +7.7% | 26.5x | +2.2% | 13.5x | +6.2% | 36.2% |
| 2022-11-30 | 1,389.0 | -13.4M | $97.71 | -34.2% | -12.3% | 25.7x | -0.7% | 12.9x | +1.7% | 52.4% |
| 2022-08-31 | 901.0 | -10.0M | $110.78 | -41.9% | -0.6% | 20.1x | -22.3% | 9.4x | -26.1% | 57.0% |
| 2022-05-31 | 899.0 | -14.9M | $124.15 | -48.2% | +11.4% | 23.7x | -8.7% | 12.1x | -4.5% | 41.4% |
| 2022-02-28 | 1,087.0 | -6.7M | $154.26 | -58.3% | +38.5% | 26.7x | +3.1% | 15.0x | +18.1% | 19.1% |
| 2021-11-30 | 598.0 | -2.2M | $161.61 | -60.2% | +45.1% | 32.7x | +26.1% | 18.1x | +42.5% | 13.0% |
| 2021-08-31 | 279.0 | 3.9M | $156.29 | -58.8% | +40.3% | 30.3x | +16.9% | 17.5x | +38.0% | 16.6% |
| 2021-05-31 | 405.0 | -1.2M | $134.84 | -52.3% | +21.0% | 33.8x | +30.4% | 21.1x | +66.1% | 15.2% |
Execution Details
2025-05-31
Action: Repurchased 48.0M at Avg Price $63.14 (Tranche ROI: 1.9%). Net shares change: -3.2M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 24.5x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -5.6%); P/TB 8.5x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -33.1%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.8x; FCF Margin 7.1%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.0%.
2025-02-28
Action: Repurchased 451.0M at Avg Price $75.53 (Tranche ROI: -14.8%). Net shares change: -9.4M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 14.3x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -44.7%); P/TB 6.1x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -51.9%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.6x; FCF Margin 11.1%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.5%.
2024-11-30
Action: Repurchased 882.0M at Avg Price $80.26 (Tranche ROI: -19.9%). Net shares change: -12.0M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 17.4x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -33.0%); P/TB 8.1x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -36.3%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.6x; FCF Margin 11.3%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.8%.
2024-08-31
Action: Repurchased 1,053.0M at Avg Price $81.77 (Tranche ROI: -21.3%). Net shares change: -14.8M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 17.8x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -31.4%); P/TB 9.0x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -28.8%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.5x; FCF Margin 14.4%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.9%.
2024-05-31
Action: Repurchased 846.0M at Avg Price $94.15 (Tranche ROI: -31.7%). Net shares change: -9.7M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 15.0x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -42.3%); P/TB 7.8x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -38.7%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.3x; FCF Margin 12.9%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.8%.
2024-02-29
Action: Repurchased 733.0M at Avg Price $107.56 (Tranche ROI: -40.2%). Net shares change: -5.6M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 20.0x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -22.9%); P/TB 9.9x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -21.9%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.5x; FCF Margin 12.0%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.5%.
2023-11-30
Action: Repurchased 970.0M at Avg Price $100.82 (Tranche ROI: -36.2%). Net shares change: -11.2M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 23.1x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -10.9%); P/TB 11.5x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -9.3%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.6x; FCF Margin 12.2%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.6%.
2023-08-31
Action: Repurchased 1,034.0M at Avg Price $107.45 (Tranche ROI: -40.1%). Net shares change: -12.7M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 22.7x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -12.3%); P/TB 11.2x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -11.9%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.9x; FCF Margin 8.7%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.7%.
2023-05-31
Action: Repurchased 1,141.0M at Avg Price $120.51 (Tranche ROI: -46.6%). Net shares change: -8.8M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 24.4x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -5.9%); P/TB 12.4x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -1.9%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.7x; FCF Margin 9.5%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.7%.
2023-02-28
Action: Repurchased 1,398.0M at Avg Price $119.97 (Tranche ROI: -46.4%). Net shares change: -7.6M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 26.5x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / +2.2%); P/TB 13.5x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +6.2%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.8x; FCF Margin 7.5%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.7%.
2022-11-30
Action: Repurchased 1,389.0M at Avg Price $97.71 (Tranche ROI: -34.2%). Net shares change: -13.4M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 25.7x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -0.7%); P/TB 12.9x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +1.7%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.8x; FCF Margin 3.6%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.7%.
2022-08-31
Action: Repurchased 901.0M at Avg Price $110.78 (Tranche ROI: -41.9%). Net shares change: -10.0M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 20.1x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -22.3%); P/TB 9.4x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -26.1%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.7x; FCF Margin 7.6%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.6%.
2022-05-31
Action: Repurchased 899.0M at Avg Price $124.15 (Tranche ROI: -48.2%). Net shares change: -14.9M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 23.7x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / -8.7%); P/TB 12.1x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / -4.5%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.5x; FCF Margin 9.5%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.5%.
2022-02-28
Action: Repurchased 1,087.0M at Avg Price $154.26 (Tranche ROI: -58.3%). Net shares change: -6.7M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 26.7x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / +3.1%); P/TB 15.0x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +18.1%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.5x; FCF Margin 11.4%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.5%.
2021-11-30
Action: Repurchased 598.0M at Avg Price $161.61 (Tranche ROI: -60.2%). Net shares change: -2.2M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 32.7x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / +26.1%); P/TB 18.1x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +42.5%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.2x; FCF Margin 13.9%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.2%.
2021-08-31
Action: Repurchased 279.0M at Avg Price $156.29 (Tranche ROI: -58.8%). Net shares change: 3.9M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 30.3x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / +16.9%); P/TB 17.5x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +38.0%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.3x; FCF Margin 13.4%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.1%.
2021-05-31
Action: Repurchased 405.0M at Avg Price $134.84 (Tranche ROI: -52.3%). Net shares change: -1.2M.
Valuation: EV/EBITDA 33.8x (vs 5Y: 25.9x / +30.4%); P/TB 21.1x (vs 5Y: 12.7x / +66.1%).
Context: Net Leverage 0.4x; FCF Margin 13.4%; Qtr Buyback Yield 0.2%.
Capital Allocation Profile (TTM)
Buyback Quality: Timing Score 85.8% (Higher=Better); Net Yield 2.3%; SBC Offset 343.8%.
Return on Invested Capital: ROIC 10.5%; Stability (5Y) 0.03; Incremental (1Y) 146.7%.
Working Capital Efficiency: DSO 37.18; DIO 103.08; DPO 47.88; CCC 92.37 days.
Growth Decomposition (5Y): Share Reduction 1.4% (CAGR); EPS Operating Growth 4.9% vs Accretion 1.4%.
Balance Sheet: Net Leverage 0.8x; Interest Coverage 35.3x; Effective Int Rate 0.9%.
Capital Deployment: Reinvestment Rate 11.6%; Div Yield -; M&A Spend $0.0M.
Metric Definitions
Timing Score: Percentile rank of the Purchase Valuation (Price & P/TB) relative to the 5-Year range. Higher (>50%) implies buying at the bottom of the 5-year cycle.
SBC Offset: Stock-Based Comp Expense / Buyback Spend. >100% means buybacks didn't fully offset dilution.
Net Yield: (Buybacks - Share Issuance) / Market Cap.
Reinvestment Rate: (CapEx + M&A) / Operating Cash Flow (TTM).
ROIC Stability: Standard Deviation of ROIC over 20 quarters (lower is more stable).
Incremental ROIC: Change in NOPAT / Change in Invested Capital (1Y). Return on new capital deployed.
Growth Decomposition:
Operating: CAGR of Net Income (Growth from business performance).
Accretion: Negative CAGR of Share Count (Growth from shrinking denominator).
Tranche ROI: % Return on the specific buyback quarter based on current stock price. (Current Price / Avg Buyback Price - 1). Measures outcome of capital deployment.
DCF Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis: NIKE, Inc. - NKE
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.6% |
| Latest Net Debt | 4.0 B USD |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,479,000,000 |
| Current Share Price | $62.80 (as of 2025-11-21) |
| Base Case Exit Multiple | 15.7x |
All figures in Millions of USD unless otherwise noted
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 45,845.9 | 47,928.7 | 50,085.5 | 52,840.2 | 55,218.0 |
| Revenue Growth (%) | -1.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| R&D (% of Revenue) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SG&A (% of Revenue) | 35.0% | 34.5% | 34.0% | 33.5% | 33.0% |
| EBITDA | 4,217.8 | 5,128.3 | 6,060.3 | 7,239.9 | 8,282.7 |
| EBIT | 3,442.8 | 4,333.3 | 5,235.5 | 6,384.9 | 7,397.7 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 13.4% |
| EBIAT | 2,864.4 | 3,605.3 | 4,355.9 | 5,312.2 | 6,154.9 |
| D&A | 775.0 | 795.0 | 824.8 | 855.0 | 885.0 |
| CapEx | 641.8 | 671.0 | 701.2 | 739.8 | 773.0 |
| Change in NWC | -139.9 | 62.5 | 64.7 | 82.7 | 71.3 |
| Projected FCFF | 3,137.5 | 3,666.8 | 4,414.8 | 5,344.8 | 6,195.5 |
2.1 Base Case Valuation Bridge
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| (+) Sum of PV of FCFFs | 16.4 B USD |
| (+) PV of Terminal Value | 78.6 B USD |
| (=) Enterprise Value (EV) | 95.0 B USD |
| (-) Net Debt | (4.0 B USD) |
| (=) Equity Value | 91.0 B USD |
| Implied Value per Share | $61.50 |
| % Upside vs. Current | -2.1% |
| Item | Bear Case | Base Case | Bull Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 50.5 B | 95.0 B | 129 B |
| Implied Value / Share | $31.40 | $61.50 | $84.53 |
| % Upside vs. Current | -50.0% | -2.1% | +34.6% |
3.1 Probability-Weighted Implied Value
| Case | Implied Value / Share | Assigned Probability | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case | $31.40 | 35.0% | $10.99 |
| Base Case | $61.50 | 50.0% | $30.75 |
| Bull Case | $84.53 | 15.0% | $12.68 |
Probability-Weighted Implied Value: $54.42
% vs. Current Price: -13.3%
Methodology: The Exit Multiple Method will be used, based on EV/EBITDA.
Justification & Data-Driven Weighting:
Step A: Assess Data Quality & Establish a Weighted Anchor.
Step B: Apply Qualitative Adjustment & The "Relative Quality" Test.
The Comparative Rule: We must determine if NIKE is "Best-in-Class," "Peer-Inline," or "Quality-Lagging."
The Adjustment:
Conclusion: The company is currently "Quality-Lagging" its peer group on every key metric. Therefore, we apply a -4.0x qualitative discount to the 19.7x weighted anchor to reflect this underperformance.
Step C: State the Final Multiple. The final Base Case multiple is 19.7x - 4.0x = 15.7x. The Bull Case assumes a partial restoration of its premium multiple, while the Bear Case assumes a multiple compression towards the lower-quality peer median.
This section varies the Discount Rate (columns) and Exit Multiple (rows) around the Base Case assumptions; FCFF path is Base Case.
Valuation Sensitivity Matrix ($ / Share)
| Exit Multiple \ Discount Rate | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.7x | $59.82 | $57.21 | $54.73 | $52.38 | $50.15 |
| 14.7x | $63.52 | $60.75 | $58.11 | $55.61 | $53.24 |
| 15.7x | $67.23 | $64.29 | $61.50 | $58.85 | $56.34 |
| 16.7x | $70.94 | $67.83 | $64.88 | $62.08 | $59.43 |
| 17.7x | $74.65 | $71.37 | $68.26 | $65.32 | $62.53 |
Upside Sensitivity Matrix (%)
| Exit Multiple \ Discount Rate | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.7x | -4.7% | -8.9% | -12.9% | -16.6% | -20.1% |
| 14.7x | +1.2% | -3.3% | -7.5% | -11.4% | -15.2% |
| 15.7x | +7.1% | +2.4% | -2.1% | -6.3% | -10.3% |
| 16.7x | +13.0% | +8.0% | +3.3% | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| 17.7x | +18.9% | +13.6% | +8.7% | +4.0% | -0.4% |
Prob Wtd. Value - Discount Rate
| Discount Rate | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWER ($/sh) | $59.51 | $56.90 | $54.42 | $52.07 | $49.84 |
Prob Wtd. Value - Multiples
| Base Case Multiple | 13.7x | 14.7x | 15.7x | 16.7x | 17.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWER ($/sh) | $48.18 | $51.30 | $54.42 | $57.54 | $60.65 |
Coverage: November 26, 2020 - November 26, 2025
Tier legend: Tier 1 = material; Tier 2 = secondary context.
Event Date: September 30, 2025
Price Move Date: October 01, 2025
Close Price: $74.20
SPY Return: +0.34%
XLY Return: +0.63%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2025.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2025. Key Details:
Filed on September 30, 2025
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
Firm: Barclays Analyst: Adrienne Yih Price Target: $70.00 Price When Posted: $69.73 Implied Upside: +0.4% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4205999/0491286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-Barclays-heres-why
EPS Beat/Miss: +80.1%
Actual: $0.49
Estimated: $0.27 Revenue Beat/Miss: +6.6%
Actual: $11,720,000,000
Estimated: $10,989,677,187
Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Alex Straton Price Target: $72.00 Price When Posted: $69.73 Implied Upside: +3.3% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4205985/0491286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-Morgan-Stanley-heres-why
Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Anna Andreeva Price Target: $84.00 Price When Posted: $69.73 Implied Upside: +20.5% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4205864/0523286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-Piper-Sandler-heres-why
Firm: Stifel Nicolaus Price Target: $68.00 Price When Posted: $69.73 Implied Downside: -2.5% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4205816/5019286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-Stifel-heres-why
Event Date: June 26, 2025
Price Move Date: June 27, 2025
Close Price: $72.04
SPY Return: +0.50%
XLY Return: +1.67%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended May 31, 2025.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended May 31, 2025. Key Details:
Filed on June 26, 2025
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +7.4%
Actual: $0.14
Estimated: $0.13 Revenue Beat/Miss: +3.4%
Actual: $11,097,000,000
Estimated: $10,727,885,326
Firm: UBS Analyst: Jay Sole Price Target: $63.00 Price When Posted: $72.04 Implied Downside: -12.5% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4151260/1087286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-UBS-heres-why
Event Date: March 20, 2025
Price Move Date: March 21, 2025
Close Price: $67.94
SPY Return: -0.27%
XLY Return: +0.36%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended February 28, 2025.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended February 28, 2025. Key Details:
Filed on March 20, 2025
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +79.6%
Actual: $0.54
Estimated: $0.30 Revenue Beat/Miss: +2.3%
Actual: $11,269,000,000
Estimated: $11,018,488,493
Firm: Morgan Stanley Price Target: $70.00 Price When Posted: $67.94 Implied Upside: +3.0% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id4093111/7031286394/NKE-Nike-price-target-lowered-by--at-Morgan-Stanley-heres-why
Event Date: October 01, 2024
Price Move Date: October 02, 2024
Close Price: $83.10
SPY Return: +0.04%
XLY Return: -0.85%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2024.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2024. Key Details:
Filed on October 1, 2024
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +34.6%
Actual: $0.70
Estimated: $0.52 Revenue Beat/Miss: -0.5%
Actual: $11,589,000,000
Estimated: $11,643,298,684
Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: Joseph Civello Price Target: $83.00 Price When Posted: $89.13 Implied Downside: -6.9% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3992009/NKE-Nike-price-target-lowered-by--at-Truist-heres-why
Firm: UBS Analyst: Jay Sole Price Target: $82.00 Price When Posted: $89.13 Implied Downside: -8.0% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3991918/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-by--at-UBS-heres-why
Event Date: September 19, 2024
Price Move Date: September 20, 2024
Close Price: $86.52
SPY Return: -0.48%
XLY Return: -0.23%
Primary Event: Elliott Hill appointed CEO effective October 14, 2024, replacing retiring John Donahoe.
Other Events on This Date:
Core Event: Elliott Hill appointed CEO effective October 14, 2024, replacing retiring John Donahoe. Key Details:
Hill's compensation: $1.5M base salary, $15.5M annual target equity
Donahoe transitions to advisor role until January 31, 2025 retirement
One-time $4M cash award and $3M RSU grant for Hill Actions/Next Steps: Leadership transition completes October 14, 2024
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. adopted Sixth Amended and Restated Bylaws effective September 18, 2024. Key Details:
Revised shareholder notice deadlines (120-90 days before annual meeting)
Requires proxy colors other than white
Enhanced disclosure requirements for shareholder proposals
Exhibit 3.1 contains full bylaws text Actions/Next Steps: Bylaws changes effective immediately
Firm: BMO Capital Analyst: Simeon Siegel Price Target: $92.00 Price When Posted: $86.08 Implied Upside: +6.9% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/BMO+Capital+Reiterates+Outperform+Rating+on+Nike+%28NKE%29/23745042.html
Firm: Bank of America Securities Analyst: Lorraine Hutchinson Price Target: $104.00 Price When Posted: $85.97 Implied Upside: +21.0% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/BofA+Securities+Reiterates+Buy+Rating+on+Nike+%28NKE%29/23745077.html
Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Anna Andreeva Price Target: $80.00 Price When Posted: $85.92 Implied Downside: -6.9% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Piper+Sandler+Reiterates+Neutral+Rating+on+Nike+%28NKE%29/23744546.html
Firm: Robert W. Baird Analyst: Jonathan Komp Price Target: $110.00 Price When Posted: $80.98 Implied Upside: +35.8% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Raised+to+%24110+at+Baird/23744289.html
Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: Joseph Civello Price Target: $85.00 Price When Posted: $85.75 Implied Downside: -0.9% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Raised+to+%2485+at+Truist+Securities/23744472.html
Event Date: June 27, 2024
Price Move Date: June 28, 2024
Close Price: $75.37
SPY Return: -0.39%
XLY Return: -1.11%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended May 31, 2024.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended May 31, 2024. Key Details:
Filed on June 27, 2024
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
Firm: BMO Capital Analyst: Simeon Siegel Price Target: $100.00 Price When Posted: $75.37 Implied Upside: +32.7% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24100+at+BMO+Capital/23411820.html
Firm: CFRA Analyst: Zachary Warring Price Target: $83.00 Price When Posted: $75.37 Implied Upside: +10.1% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+cut+to+%2483+at+CFRA+%28correction%29/23412087.html
EPS Beat/Miss: +21.7%
Actual: $1.01
Estimated: $0.83 Revenue Beat/Miss: -2.0%
Actual: $12,606,000,000
Estimated: $12,860,517,405
Firm: Evercore ISI Analyst: Michael Binetti Price Target: $105.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Upside: +11.5% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24105+at+Evercore+ISI/23410581.html
Firm: HSBC Analyst: Erwan Rambourg Price Target: $90.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Downside: -4.4% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%2490+at+HSBC/23411364.html
Firm: KGI Securities Analyst: Jenny Liu Price Target: $86.00 Price When Posted: $76.21 Implied Upside: +12.8% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3939530/NKE-Nike-downgraded-to-Hold-from-Outperform-at-KGI-Securities
Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Alex Straton Price Target: $79.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Downside: -16.1% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3939197/NKE-Nike-just-downgraded-at-Morgan-Stanley-heres-why
Firm: Robert W. Baird Analyst: Jonathan Komp Price Target: $100.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Upside: +6.2% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3939312/NKE-Nike-price-target-lowered-by--at-Baird-heres-why
Firm: Stifel Nicolaus Analyst: Jim Duffy Price Target: $88.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Downside: -6.6% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Stifel+Downgrades+Nike+%28NKE%29+to+Hold/23410479.html
Firm: Telsey Advisory Analyst: Christina Fernandez Price Target: $100.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Upside: +6.2% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24100+at+Telsey/23411342.html
Firm: UBS Analyst: Jay Sole Price Target: $78.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Downside: -17.2% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3939224/NKE-UBS-gets-more-bearish-on-Nike-downgrades-shares
Firm: Williams Trading Analyst: Sam Poser Price Target: $67.00 Price When Posted: $94.19 Implied Downside: -28.9% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%2467+at+Williams+Trading/23410642.html
Event Date: March 21, 2024
Price Move Date: March 22, 2024
Close Price: $93.86
SPY Return: -0.19%
XLY Return: -0.87%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended February 29, 2024.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended February 29, 2024. Key Details:
Filed on March 21, 2024
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
Firm: Bernstein Analyst: Aneesha Sherman Price Target: $120.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +27.8% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24120+at+Bernstein%2C+%27cutting+FY25+numbers+and+TP%2C+but+are+more+optimistic+on+Nike%E2%80%99s+LT+prospects%27/22965753.html
Firm: CFRA Analyst: Zachary Warring Price Target: $95.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +1.2% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/CFRA+Upgrades+Nike+%28NKE%29+to+Hold/22968073.html
Firm: CFRA Analyst: Zachary Warring Price Target: $95.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +1.2% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/CFRA+Upgrades+Nike+%28NKE%29+to+Hold/22968073.html
EPS Beat/Miss: +32.4%
Actual: $0.98
Estimated: $0.74 Revenue Beat/Miss: +1.2%
Actual: $12,429,000,000
Estimated: $12,279,541,228
Firm: Goldman Sachs Analyst: Brooke Roach Price Target: $120.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +27.8% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24120+at+Goldman+Sachs%2C+%27believe+the+path+for+near-term+NKE+growth+remains+choppy%27/22965637.html
Firm: Jefferies Analyst: Randal Konik Price Target: $100.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +6.5% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24100+at+Jefferies%2C+%27it+will+take+time+to+play+out%27/22965850.html
Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Abbie Zvejnieks Price Target: $98.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +4.4% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%2498+at+Piper+Sandler%2C+%27limited+conviction+on+what+NKE%27s+growth+rate+will+look+like%27/22965847.html
Firm: Stifel Nicolaus Analyst: Jim Duffy Price Target: $117.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +24.7% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24117+at+Stifel%2C+%27disappointed+the+short-comings+weren%E2%80%99t+recognized+and+addressed+sooner%27/22965852.html
Firm: Telsey Advisory Analyst: Christina Fernandez Price Target: $115.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +22.5% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24115+at+Telsey+on+lower+EPS+estimates/22965829.html
Firm: Truist Financial Analyst: Beth Reed Price Target: $99.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +5.5% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%2499+at+Truist+Securities%2C+%27remain+cautious+without+better+visibility+into+top+line+trends%27/22965854.html
Firm: UBS Analyst: Jay Sole Price Target: $125.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +33.2% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24125+at+UBS+%27based+on+a+lower+sales+outlook%27/22965855.html
Firm: Wells Fargo Analyst: Kate Fitzsimons Price Target: $120.00 Price When Posted: $93.86 Implied Upside: +27.8% Source: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Nike+%28NKE%29+PT+Lowered+to+%24120+at+Wells+Fargo/22966102.html
Event Date: December 21, 2023
Price Move Date: December 22, 2023
Close Price: $108.04
SPY Return: +0.20%
XLY Return: -0.74%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed Q2 FY24 results and announced $2B cost-saving initiative.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed Q2 FY24 results and announced $2B cost-saving initiative. Key Details:
Fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2023
$400M-$450M restructuring charges (mostly Q3 FY24)
Targeting $2B cumulative savings over 3 years Financial Impact: Restructuring charges expected in Q3 FY24 Actions/Next Steps: Restructuring substantially complete by FY24 end
EPS Beat/Miss: +21.2%
Actual: $1.03
Estimated: $0.85 Revenue Beat/Miss: +8.6%
Actual: $13,388,000,000
Estimated: $12,323,500,000
Firm: Loop Capital Markets Analyst: Simeon Siegel Price Target: $118.00 Price When Posted: $108.99 Implied Upside: +8.3% Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/12/36364658/nike-shares-tank-after-q2-earnings-reduced-guidance-implies-ongoing-uncertainty
Event Date: September 28, 2023
Price Move Date: September 29, 2023
Close Price: $95.62
SPY Return: -0.24%
XLY Return: +0.53%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2023.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2023. Key Details:
Filed on September 28, 2023
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +25.3%
Actual: $0.94
Estimated: $0.75 Revenue Beat/Miss: -0.4%
Actual: $12,939,000,000
Estimated: $12,985,800,000
Event Date: December 20, 2022
Price Move Date: December 21, 2022
Close Price: $115.78
SPY Return: +1.50%
XLY Return: +1.59%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2022.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2022. Key Details:
Filed on December 20, 2022
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
Firm: Deutsche Bank Analyst: Gabriella Carbone Price Target: $133.00 Price When Posted: $103.21 Implied Upside: +28.9% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3636073/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-to--from--at-Deutsche-Bank
EPS Beat/Miss: +32.8%
Actual: $0.85
Estimated: $0.64 Revenue Beat/Miss: +5.8%
Actual: $13,315,000,000
Estimated: $12,580,589,431
Firm: KeyBanc Analyst: Noah Zatzkin Price Target: $120.00 Price When Posted: $117.26 Implied Upside: +2.3% Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/12/30162431/9-nike-analysts-on-q2-earnings-beat-improving-inventory-trends-china-decidedly-upbe
Event Date: September 29, 2022
Price Move Date: September 30, 2022
Close Price: $83.12
SPY Return: -1.55%
XLY Return: -1.97%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2022.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2022. Key Details:
Filed on September 29, 2022
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +1.1%
Actual: $0.93
Estimated: $0.92 Revenue Beat/Miss: +3.3%
Actual: $12,687,000,000
Estimated: $12,279,605,947
Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Alex Straton Price Target: $120.00 Price When Posted: $85.10 Implied Upside: +41.0% Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/09/29096822/just-dont-do-it-analysts-lower-price-targets-on-fears-off-inventory-and-china-worri
Event Date: June 27, 2022
Price Move Date: June 28, 2022
Close Price: $102.78
SPY Return: -2.04%
XLY Return: -3.99%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended May 31, 2022.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended May 31, 2022. Key Details:
Filed on June 27, 2022
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +11.1%
Actual: $0.90
Estimated: $0.81 Revenue Beat/Miss: +1.4%
Actual: $12,234,000,000
Estimated: $12,060,723,772
Firm: Telsey Advisory Analyst: Cristina Fernandez Price Target: $130.00 Price When Posted: $105.58 Implied Upside: +23.1% Source: https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/22/06/27883090/nikes-fourth-quarter-mixed-and-not-as-bad-as-feared-why-3-analysts-are-lowering-pri
Note: Move likely driven by broader market/sector activity.
Close Price: $118.63
SPY Return: -3.55%
XLY Return: -5.60%
Event Date: December 20, 2021
Price Move Date: December 21, 2021
Close Price: $166.63
SPY Return: +1.78%
XLY Return: +2.59%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2021.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2021. Key Details:
Filed on December 20, 2021
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +31.7%
Actual: $0.83
Estimated: $0.63 Revenue Beat/Miss: +6.9%
Actual: $11,357,000,000
Estimated: $10,622,500,000
Firm: Wedbush Analyst: Tom Nikic Price Target: $185.00 Price When Posted: $166.25 Implied Upside: +11.3% Source: https://thefly.com/permalinks/entry.php/id3430493/NKE-Nike-price-target-raised-to--from--at-Wedbush1640090233
Event Date: September 23, 2021
Price Move Date: September 24, 2021
Close Price: $149.59
SPY Return: +0.16%
XLY Return: +0.37%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2021.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 31, 2021. Key Details:
Filed on September 23, 2021
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +4.5%
Actual: $1.16
Estimated: $1.11 Revenue Beat/Miss: +3.7%
Actual: $12,248,000,000
Estimated: $11,810,571,428
Event Date: June 24, 2021
Price Move Date: June 25, 2021
Close Price: $154.35
SPY Return: +0.36%
XLY Return: +0.63%
Primary Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended May 31, 2021.
Core Event: NIKE, Inc. disclosed financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended May 31, 2021. Key Details:
Filed on June 24, 2021
Results included in Exhibit 99.1
EPS Beat/Miss: +82.4%
Actual: $0.93
Estimated: $0.51 Revenue Beat/Miss: +1.8%
Actual: $12,344,000,000
Estimated: $12,130,702,939
Earnings Call Transcript Summary: NKE
This report is a summary of 12 available earnings call transcripts for the period spanning December 2022 to September 2025.
Part 1: Individual Transcript Summaries
FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-09-30)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Revenue was up 1.0% on a reported basis, but down 1.0% currency-neutral. Gross margins declined 320 basis points to 42.2%. NIKE Direct was down 5.0% (Digital down 12.0%), while Wholesale grew 5.0%. Earnings per share was $0.49. Inventory decreased 2.0% versus the prior year. Management noted tangible progress driven by "win-now actions," particularly in Running (growing over 20.0%), North America, and wholesale partners.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The core strategic message is the implementation of the "Sport Offense," a new formation aligning NIKE, Jordan, and Converse into nimble, focused teams by sport to drive innovation and consumer connectivity. Running is the early proof point. Strategic initiatives include investing in NIKE ACG (outdoor product) and a new partnership with SKIMS for performance training products. Sportswear remains a challenge, with business continuing to decline, though Air Force One is stabilizing and Air Jordan 1 inventory is returning to health.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue grew 4.0%, led by 11.0% growth in Wholesale, with Running, Training, and Basketball delivering double-digit growth. EMEA revenue grew 1.0%. Greater China revenue declined 10.0% due to structural challenges and underperforming seasonal sell-through. APLA revenue grew 1.0%.
Macro & Industry Environment: The company is operating in a dynamic environment facing a cautious consumer and tariff uncertainty. Greater China is particularly challenging due to a highly promotional digital marketplace and soft traffic. Promotional activity has also increased in key countries across EMEA.
Guidance & Outlook: Q2 revenue is expected to be down low single digits. Q2 gross margins are expected to be down approximately 300 to 375 basis points. Full fiscal 2026 outlook includes wholesale revenue returning to modest growth, but NIKE Direct is not expected to return to growth due to the repositioning of NIKE Digital as a full-price business.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Wholesale momentum and the Spring order book, medium-term margin targets, the impact of the Sport Offense on other categories, Digital traffic headwinds, and the timeline/cost of the China turnaround.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts probed the long-term margin potential. Management reiterated confidence in achieving double-digit margins over time, contingent on reigniting organic growth and improving the full-price mix. They acknowledged the new tariffs increased the estimated gross incremental cost to $1.5 B, raising the net headwind to FY2026 gross margin from 75 basis points to 120 basis points.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The Spring order book is up year-over-year, led by sport, offsetting headwinds in Greater China. Digital traffic is down double digits due to the strategic reduction in promotions and classic franchise management, but this is necessary to reposition the channel for long-term health. The China turnaround requires investment and time to refresh store concepts and improve sell-through, with current store pilots showing encouraging but not yet scalable results.
FY2025 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-06-26)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q4 revenue was flat currency-neutral (down 2.0% reported). Full year FY2024 revenue grew 1.0% currency-neutral. Q4 Gross Margins expanded 110 basis points to 44.7%. Diluted EPS was $0.99, up 50.0%. Inventory declined 11.0% versus the prior year. Performance product grew double digits, offset by declines in lifestyle.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The company is executing a "comeback" plan focused on sharpening sport focus, accelerating innovation (via "Speed Lane"), driving bold storytelling (Paris Olympics), and elevating the marketplace. Organizational alignment around sport ("field to play" teams) is complete. New innovations include Pegasus 41 and the Dynamic Air platform (Air Max DN). Lifestyle portfolio is being diversified while accelerating planned reductions for the three largest classic franchises.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue declined 1.0% (Wholesale up 6.0%). EMEA revenue grew 1.0% (Wholesale up 7.0%). Greater China revenue grew 7.0% (Wholesale up 15.0%), though this included a timing benefit from the 6/18 shopping holiday. APLA revenue grew 4.0% (Wholesale up 9.0%).
Macro & Industry Environment: Increased macro uncertainty and worsening foreign exchange headwinds. Traffic softness persists, particularly in Greater China brick-and-mortar (declined double digits).
Guidance & Outlook: FY2025 reported revenue guidance was reduced to down mid-single digits (1H down high single digits). FY2025 Gross Margin is expected to expand approximately 10 basis points to 30 basis points. Q1 FY2025 revenue is expected down approximately 10.0%. Management expects meaningful sequential improvement in the second half of FY2025 as newness scales.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Drivers of the revised FY2025 outlook, confidence in 2H sequential improvement, long-term growth model, and the magnitude of the classic franchise reset.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the confidence in the meaningful 2H FY2025 improvement given the 1H headwinds. Management confirmed the improvement is driven by the scaling of new products (Peg Premium, Vomero 18, Air Max DN iterations) and that the initial read of the Spring order book is in line with guidance. The aggressive franchise management actions are concentrated in the first half, particularly impacting NIKE Digital revenue.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The organizational reset (headcount dimension of Save to Invest) is complete. The change in FY2025 guidance is primarily due to a 1.0% FX headwind, a softened outlook for Greater China, and more aggressive actions on key franchises impacting Digital. The channel mix shift (Wholesale growing, Digital declining) is a revenue and margin headwind in FY2025.
FY2025 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2025-03-20)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q3 revenue declined 7.0% currency-neutral (down 9.0% reported). Gross margins declined 330 basis points to 41.5%. NIKE Direct was down 10.0% (Digital down 15.0%), and Wholesale was down 4.0%. EPS was $0.54. Inventory declined 2.0% YoY, but remains elevated. Performance business grew, led by Running (mid-single digits growth) and Training, but was offset by double-digit declines in classic footwear franchises.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Focus on "Win Now" actions, emphasizing leading with sport. Running is the standout performer (Vomero 18 launch). Sportswear strategy involves right sizing Air Force 1, Dunk, and Air Jordan 1, while planting newness (Vomero 5, Shox). Announced NIKESKIMS partnership. Marketplace strategy involves restoring the sales organization and returning NIKE Digital to a premium destination by significantly reducing promotional days (NA/EMEA Digital went from 30+ promo days to zero in Jan/Feb).
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue declined 4.0% (Wholesale up 3.0% due to timing). EMEA revenue declined 6.0%. Greater China revenue declined 15.0% (Wholesale down 18.0%), reflecting aggressive cleanup actions. APLA revenue declined 4.0%.
Macro & Industry Environment: Global economic uncertainty persists. China marketplace is highly competitive and promotional, with traffic declining double digits.
Guidance & Outlook: Q4 is expected to reflect the largest financial impact from Win Now actions. Q4 revenue expected down in the mid-teens range (low end). Q4 Gross Margins expected down approximately 400 basis points to 500 basis points (including tariffs). Classic franchises expected to be reduced by more than 10 percentage points of total footwear mix by end of FY2025. Digital traffic expected down double digits in FY2026.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Timeline for inventory cleanup, strength of the innovation pipeline (Spring 2026), balancing brand elevation with clearance activity, and the structural profitability of the wholesale channel.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Management was pressed on the timeline for cleaning up classic inventory. They confirmed wholesale cleanup will continue through the first half of fiscal 2026, with excess Digital inventory being liquidated through factory stores. They noted that the Fall order book shows performance growth almost offsetting classic declines, indicating progress toward an inflection point.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: Management is confident in the long-term innovation pipeline (Spring 2026 product review was positive). Wholesale discounts are being returned to historical levels to ensure mutually profitable growth and capacity for investment in retail presentation. China turnaround is aggressive but will take time due to the mono-brand market structure.
FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-12-19)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q2 revenue declined 9.0% currency-neutral (down 8.0% reported). Gross margins declined 100 basis points to 43.6%. NIKE Direct was down 14.0% (Digital down 21.0%), and Wholesale was down 4.0%. EPS was $0.78. Inventory was flat YoY. Sport performance grew YoY, offset by a double-digit decline in sportswear.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: CEO Elliott Hill outlined "Win Now" priority actions: obsessing sport, accelerating product portfolio, increasing brand investment, empowering key country/city teams, and elevating the marketplace. The company is accelerating the reduction of classic footwear franchises. Investment is shifting from performance marketing to brand marketing.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue down 8.0% (Wholesale down 1.0%). EMEA revenue down 10.0% (Wholesale down 4.0%). Greater China revenue down 11.0% (Wholesale down 15.0%). APLA revenue down 2.0%.
Macro & Industry Environment: Traffic and retail sales were soft in September and October, improving in November (Black Friday, 11/11). China traffic declines persist, requiring higher markdown activity.
Guidance & Outlook: Q3 revenue expected down low double-digits. Q3 Gross Margins expected down approximately 300 basis points to 350 basis points, reflecting accelerated cleanup and reset actions. Q4 headwinds are expected to be greater than Q3. Summer order books are down YoY due to accelerated actions on classic franchises.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Wholesale partner reception and shelf space recapture, phasing of investment (brand vs. overhead), long-term margin potential, and specific actions in North America and China.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Management was pressed on the duration of the cleanup phase. They confirmed the accelerated actions on classic franchises would result in a bigger financial headwind for the balance of FY2025. They emphasized that the focus is on getting back to a healthy, full-price marketplace, which requires near-term investment in liquidation (returns, discounts, factory store markdowns).
Notable Insights & Clarifications: Wholesale partners are receptive to the commitment to innovation and mutually profitable growth. Investment focus is narrowed to five sports, three countries, and five cities. Long-term margin expansion relies on returning to full-price Digital sales and driving operating leverage. China strategy involves investing in local product creation (GEO Express Lane) and resetting retail concepts to drive productivity.
FY2025 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-10-01)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q1 revenue declined 9.0% currency-neutral (down 10.0% reported). Gross margins expanded 120 basis points to 45.4%. NIKE Direct was down 12.0% (Digital down 20.0%), and Wholesale was down 7.0%. Diluted EPS was $0.70. Unit sales were lower than expected, offset by higher ASP.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The company is in a transitional moment with the incoming CEO, Elliott Hill. Full year guidance was withdrawn, replaced by quarterly guidance. Strategic focus is on aggressively shifting the product portfolio by reducing the proportion of classic footwear franchises (down nearly 50.0% on NIKE Digital). Running offense is building momentum (men's/women's running footwear saw positive growth). New footwear products were up strong double digits. Investing in brand moments (Paris Olympics campaign).
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue down 11.0% (Wholesale down 11.0%). EMEA revenue down 12.0% (Wholesale down 11.0%). APLA revenue down 2.0%. Greater China revenue down 3.0% (Wholesale grew 10.0%, Direct down 16.0%).
Macro & Industry Environment: Traffic declines were more significant than anticipated, especially on NIKE Digital and in Greater China partner stores. Retail sales underperformed, requiring higher promotional activity.
Guidance & Outlook: Q2 revenue expected down 8.0% to 10.0%. Q2 Gross Margins expected down approximately 150 basis points. Full FY2025 revenue expectations moderated; franchise management actions expected to create a mid-single digit revenue headwind for the year.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Drivers of unit disappointment, regional inventory levels, long-term DTC strategy and profitability, and wholesale partner receptivity to new launches.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the cause of the unit shortfall. Management attributed it primarily to Greater China underperformance and general macro softness, compounded by the intentional 50.0% reduction in classic franchises on Digital. They confirmed the mid-single digit revenue headwind for FY2025 is necessary to manage long-term franchise health.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: Running specialty partners in North America were up double digits in Q1, with strong order books for Spring 2025 (double-digit growth). Newness scaling is accelerating, with footwear units related to newness expected to grow mid to high-single digits in Spring 2025. China remains a long-term opportunity, despite near-term traffic softness and promotional environment.
FY2024 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-06-27)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q4 revenue was flat currency-neutral (down 2.0% reported). Full year FY2024 revenue grew 1.0% currency-neutral. Q4 Gross Margins expanded 110 basis points to 44.7%. Diluted EPS was $0.99, up 50.0%. Inventory declined 11.0% versus the prior year. Performance product grew double digits, offset by declines in lifestyle.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Focus on "comeback" plan: sharpening sport focus, accelerating innovation (Speed Lane), driving bold storytelling, elevating the marketplace. Completed organizational alignment around sport ("field to play" teams). Performance grew double digits. Basketball up double digits (driven by GT Cut, Kobe, Sabrina 1). Fitness apparel up high double digits (Statement leggings). Running impacted by Pegasus transition, but new releases (Vomero, Invincible, etc.) grew high double digits. Launched Pegasus 41. Lifestyle focus: diversifying portfolio, accelerating planned reductions for 3 largest franchises (AF1, AJ1, Dunk). Launched Dynamic Air platform (Air Max DN).
Business Segment Performance: North America Q4 revenue declined 1.0% (Wholesale up 6.0%). EMEA Q4 revenue grew 1.0% (Wholesale up 7.0%). Greater China Q4 revenue grew 7.0% (Wholesale up 15.0%), though this included a timing benefit from the 6/18 shopping holiday. APLA Q4 revenue grew 4.0% (Wholesale up 9.0%).
Macro & Industry Environment: Increased macro uncertainty and worsening foreign exchange. Traffic softness persisting, especially in Greater China (brick-and-mortar traffic declined double digits). Marketplace remains highly promotional.
Guidance & Outlook: FY2025 guidance reduced: Reported revenue expected down mid-single digits (1H down high single digits). FX headwind 1.0%. FY2025 Gross Margin expansion 10 basis points to 30 basis points. SG&A up slightly (reinvesting $1 B in consumer-facing activities). Q1 FY2025 revenue expected down approximately 10.0%. Expect meaningful sequential improvement in 2H FY2025 driven by scaling newness.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Drivers of the revised FY2025 outlook, confidence in 2H sequential improvement, long-term growth model, and the magnitude of the classic franchise reset.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the confidence in the meaningful 2H FY2025 improvement given the 1H headwinds. Management confirmed the improvement is driven by the scaling of new products (Peg Premium, Vomero 18, Air Max DN iterations) and that the initial read of the Spring order book is in line with guidance. The biggest impact on 1H is aggressive franchise management actions, particularly on NIKE Digital revenue.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The organizational reset (headcount dimension of Save to Invest) is complete. The change in FY2025 guidance is primarily due to a 1.0% FX headwind, a softened outlook for Greater China, and more aggressive actions on key franchises impacting Digital. The channel mix shift (Wholesale growing, Digital declining) is a revenue and margin headwind in FY2025.
FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-03-21)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q3 revenue grew 3.0% currency-neutral (up 1.0% reported). Gross margins expanded 150 basis points to 44.8%. NIKE Direct grew 2.0% (Digital flat, Stores up 4.0%). Wholesale grew 4.0%. Diluted EPS was $0.77. Inventory declined 13.0% YoY.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Focus on accelerating the multi-year innovation cycle and driving brand distinction. Highlighted success in Performance (Running, Basketball, Global Football) and the importance of the women's business (up double digits). Announced the "Save to Invest" initiative to generate $2.0 B in cumulative savings over three years, primarily through organizational restructuring and non-product operating expenses.
Business Segment Performance: North America Q3 revenue grew 3.0% (Wholesale up 5.0%, Direct flat). EMEA Q3 revenue grew 1.0% (Wholesale up 3.0%, Direct down 1.0%). Greater China Q3 revenue grew 20.0% (Wholesale up 24.0%, Direct up 12.0%). APLA Q3 revenue grew 1.0% (Wholesale up 3.0%, Direct down 2.0%).
Macro & Industry Environment: Consumer environment remains cautious globally. China saw strong growth but remains competitive.
Guidance & Outlook: Q4 revenue expected to be flat to down low single digits. FY2024 revenue growth expected to be up approximately 1.0%. FY2025 revenue expected to be down low single digits (reflecting product cycle transition and macro uncertainty). FY2025 Gross Margin expected to expand 100 basis points to 120 basis points.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Details on the $2.0 B Save to Invest program, the timeline for the product cycle transition, the impact of the Digital slowdown, and the sustainability of China's growth.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts pressed for specifics on where the $2.0 B savings would come from and the impact on headcount (management confirmed restructuring charges would be taken in Q4). They also questioned the FY2025 revenue guidance being down low single digits, which management attributed to the product cycle transition and macro uncertainty, emphasizing that the focus is on long-term profitable growth over short-term revenue maximization.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The product cycle transition involves managing down certain classic franchises (Dunk, AF1) while scaling new innovation. Digital growth is slowing due to intentional reduction in promotional activity and a focus on full-price realization. China growth was strong, driven by newness and brand moments, but the competitive environment requires continued focus.
FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-12-19)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q2 revenue declined 9.0% currency-neutral (down 8.0% reported). Gross margins declined 100 basis points to 43.6%. NIKE Direct was down 14.0% (Digital down 21.0%), and Wholesale was down 4.0%. EPS was $0.78. Inventory was flat YoY. Sport performance grew YoY, offset by a double-digit decline in sportswear.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: CEO Elliott Hill outlined "Win Now" priority actions: obsessing sport, accelerating product portfolio, increasing brand investment, empowering key country/city teams, and elevating the marketplace. The company is accelerating the reduction of classic footwear franchises. Investment is shifting from performance marketing to brand marketing.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue down 8.0% (Wholesale down 1.0%). EMEA revenue down 10.0% (Wholesale down 4.0%). Greater China revenue down 11.0% (Wholesale down 15.0%). APLA revenue down 2.0%.
Macro & Industry Environment: Traffic and retail sales were soft in September and October, improving in November (Black Friday, 11/11). China traffic declines persist; competitive environment requires higher markdowns.
Guidance & Outlook: Q3 revenue expected down low double-digits. Q3 Gross Margins expected down approximately 300 basis points to 350 basis points, reflecting accelerated cleanup and reset actions. Q4 headwinds are expected to be greater than Q3. Summer order books are down YoY due to accelerated actions on classic franchises.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Wholesale partner reception and shelf space recapture, phasing of investment (brand vs. overhead), long-term margin potential, and specific actions in North America and China.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Management was pressed on the duration of the cleanup phase. They confirmed the accelerated actions on classic franchises would result in a bigger financial headwind for the balance of FY2025. They emphasized that the focus is on getting back to a healthy, full-price marketplace, which requires near-term investment in liquidation (returns, discounts, factory store markdowns).
Notable Insights & Clarifications: Wholesale partners are receptive to the commitment to innovation and mutually profitable growth. Investment focus is narrowed to five sports, three countries, and five cities. Long-term margin expansion relies on returning to full-price Digital sales and driving operating leverage. China strategy involves investing in local product creation (GEO Express Lane) and resetting retail concepts to drive productivity.
FY2024 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2024-03-21)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q3 performance was in line with expectations, with revenue up slightly (reported and currency-neutral) despite dynamic conditions in some geographies. Gross margins expanded by 150 basis points to 44.8% (reported), driven by strategic pricing, lower ocean freight, and supply chain efficiency, partially offset by restructuring charges (50 basis points negative impact). Inventory is healthy, with total marketplace units down double digits. Diluted EPS was $0.77, or $0.98 excluding restructuring charges ($340 M incurred this quarter). Performance footwear grew high single digits.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Management acknowledged that NIKE is not performing to its potential and announced adjustments: sharpening focus on sport, driving continuous product innovation, making brand marketing bolder (starting with the Olympics), and leading with wholesale partners while NIKE Direct remains critical. The company is accelerating a multiyear innovation cycle, pulling forward several innovations. A restructuring plan is underway to streamline operations and shift resources toward consumer-facing activities. An Investor Day is planned for later this year to share plans in depth.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue grew 3%, exceeding expectations, with strong holiday sales and lighter markdowns. EBIT grew 18%. EMEA revenue declined 4%, falling short of expectations due to increased macro volatility and softening consumer demand. Greater China revenue grew 6%, in line with revised expectations, with wholesale up 12% and retail sales with partners growing double digits. APLA revenue grew 4%, led by Central and South America and Mexico.
Macro & Industry Environment: The environment is described as uneven and promotional. Management noted the need for speed as consumers respond quickly to newness. The subdued macro outlook around the world is factored into forward planning.
Guidance & Outlook: Full year revenue is still expected to grow approximately 1%. Q4 revenue is expected to be up slightly, reflecting Q3 shipment timing benefits and lower digital growth due to franchise lifecycle management. Full year gross margins are expected to expand approximately 120 basis points (including 60 basis points negative FX impact). Q4 gross margins are expected to expand 160 to 180 basis points. Full year SG&A is expected to grow low single digits (including restructuring charges). For FY2025, revenue and earnings are expected to grow, with operating margins expanding (excluding FY2024 restructuring impact). However, H1 FY2025 revenue is prudently planned to be down low single digits due to near-term headwinds from lifecycle management of key franchises.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: FY2025 guidance (especially the H1 revenue decline), the new multi-year innovation cycle and its timeline, the shift in operating model (re-emphasizing sport/category focus), and the evolving role of wholesale vs. DTC, particularly in China.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts pressed on the low single-digit revenue decline forecast for H1 FY2025 and whether this impacts the long-term high-teens margin target. Management confirmed the H1 decline is intentional, reflecting the accelerated decision to pull back supply of key franchises (e.g., Air Force 1, Pegasus) to make space for newness (e.g., Air Max Dn, Peg 41). They reiterated confidence in the long-term margin target, stating that the transition is expected to inflect to growth in H2 FY2025, and that the long-term algorithm will be updated at Investor Day.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The operating model has been adjusted to integrate the best of the category offense (running, basketball, etc.) back into the men's/women's/kids structure, creating consumer-led, sport-focused teams. The focus is shifting away from achieving specific channel mix targets (like 40% digital) towards serving consumer demand across the full marketplace. The lifecycle management of key franchises is expected to create a near-term channel mix headwind, particularly on digital, which carries a higher mix of these large franchises. In China, physical retail is currently stronger than digital, and NIKE is expanding into social commerce (Douyin) to capture growth.
FY2024 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-12-21)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q2 revenue was up 1% reported (down 1% currency-neutral), following 27% currency-neutral growth in the prior year. Gross margins expanded 170 basis points to 44.6% (reported), driven by strategic pricing, lower ocean freight, and supply chain efficiency, partially offset by higher product input costs and 60 basis points of negative FX impact. Diluted EPS was $1.03, up 21.0% year-over-year. Inventory dollars are down 14.0% year-over-year, and total marketplace units are down double digits.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: NIKE delivered strong execution in an uneven macro backdrop, outpacing the industry during holiday moments (Black Friday, Double Eleven). Management announced a significant "save to invest" plan targeting up to $2 B in cumulative cost savings over the next three years. These savings will be generated by simplifying the product portfolio, improving supply chain efficiency, streamlining the organization, and increasing automation. The majority of savings will be reinvested to fuel innovation and growth, particularly in Women's, Jordan Brand, and Running. The second half of FY2024 marks the start of a multi-year product innovation cycle.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue declined 3% (lapping 31% growth prior year), with wholesale down 9%. Retail sales grew mid-single digits with key partners. EMEA revenue declined 3% (lapping 33% growth prior year). Greater China revenue grew 8%, with wholesale up 19% but NIKE Digital declining 22% due to a highly promotional digital marketplace. APLA revenue grew 10%, leading to a record quarter for the geography.
Macro & Industry Environment: Management noted indications of more cautious consumer behavior globally, especially outside of key shopping moments. The marketplace is highly promotional, and digital traffic has softened.
Guidance & Outlook: Full year reported revenue is now expected to grow approximately 1% (down from mid-single digits previously), reflecting increased macro headwinds, adjusted digital growth plans, franchise lifecycle management, and a stronger U.S. dollar. Q3 revenue is expected to be slightly negative, and Q4 up low single digits. Full year gross margins are still expected to expand 140 to 160 basis points. SG&A growth is expected to improve to low single digits (excluding restructuring charges). A restructuring charge of $400 M to $450 M is anticipated in the second half, primarily in Q3. Excluding restructuring charges, the prior full-year earnings outlook is maintained.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: The $2 B cost savings plan and its impact on long-term margin targets, the structural changes supporting the new innovation cycle, the bifurcation of performance between key shopping moments and in-between periods, and the specific trends in North America and China (especially the promotional digital environment).
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned how the $2 B savings would align with the high-teens EBIT margin target and whether the revised H2 revenue outlook (deceleration) was due to macro factors or internal product management. Management confirmed the $2 B plan is holistic (up and down the P&L) and is intended to create capacity for high-return consumer-facing investments, supporting the long-term margin goals. The H2 revenue adjustment reflects both macro headwinds (China/EMEA) and the intentional, proactive decision to manage down supply of key franchises to accelerate the shift toward newness and innovation.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The organizational realignment under Co-Presidents Heidi O'Neill and Craig Williams is driving a sharper focus on sport and innovation (e.g., a three-year pipeline is being built for platforms like Air and Running). The decision to pull back on supply of large franchises is primarily focused on the DTC channel, where promotional activity is highest, to protect brand health. Management is prioritizing brand strength over chasing promotional digital sales, especially in China, where the digital marketplace is highly promotional. Product input costs are expected to flip to a tailwind in Q4.
FY2024 Q1 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-09-28)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q1 revenue grew 2% (reported and currency-neutral), in line with guidance. Retail sales across NIKE Direct and Wholesale grew mid-single digits. NIKE Direct grew 6% (stores up 12%, Digital up 2%). Wholesale grew 1%, reflecting proactive decisions to restrain sell-in and prioritize marketplace health. Gross margin declined 10 basis points to 44.2%, primarily due to higher product costs and 90 basis points of negative FX impact, largely offset by strategic pricing. Inventory dollars are down 10.0% year-over-year, and total marketplace units are down double digits.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: NIKE is building on its $50 B revenue base and accelerating its offense by aligning innovative product, distinctive storytelling, and differentiated marketplace experiences. Key focus areas include scaling newness and innovation (e.g., Air Max Day, Paris Olympics) while carefully managing iconic franchises. The company is focused on improving the marginal cost of growth through supply chain efficiencies (e.g., reduced digital split shipments) and modest increases in operating overhead.
Business Segment Performance: North America revenue declined 1% (wholesale down 8%), in line with expectations, with strong back-to-school performance. EMEA revenue grew 6%, with women's outpacing total growth. Greater China revenue grew 12% for the second straight quarter, with retail sales across Direct and Wholesale growing double digits, and the women's business outpacing overall growth. APLA revenue grew 3%.
Macro & Industry Environment: The marketplace is healthy, with inventory normalized. Consumer behavior shows a shift back toward physical stores, with store traffic up double digits, though 90% of shopping journeys still start digitally. The environment remains competitive and promotional.
Guidance & Outlook: Full year reported revenue growth is reiterated at mid-single digits. This includes approximately 4 points of headwinds from prior-year wholesale shipment timing and accelerated liquidation. Full year gross margins are still expected to expand 140 to 160 basis points (including 50 basis points negative FX impact). SG&A is expected to grow at the high end of mid-single digits. Q2 revenue is expected to be up slightly, facing the most challenging comparisons from FY2023. Q2 gross margins are expected to expand approximately 100 basis points (reported).
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: The new innovation pipeline (especially running and Air), the long-term margin trajectory (high-teens EBIT), the shaping of wholesale sell-in vs. retail sell-out, and the competitive dynamics in China.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts sought clarification on the timing of the wholesale sell-in recovery, given the strong retail sell-out growth (high single-digit to low double-digit growth with key partners). Management explained that Q2 and Q3 face the highest prior-year wholesale sell-in comps (Q2 FY2023 wholesale was up 30.0%), meaning NIKE Direct growth will be the best indicator of marketplace momentum in the near term, while wholesale sell-in remains restricted to maintain marketplace health.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The running strategy is being refined to focus on the everyday runner by improving the ground game (RSGs, community presence) and ensuring innovative products (Invincible, Infinity, Peg 41) are combined with distinctive storytelling and marketplace execution. The long-term goal of high-teens EBIT margin remains achievable, driven by structural improvements like strategic pricing, lower supply chain costs (e.g., reduced digital split shipments), and the shift to a more profitable Direct business. In China, the brand is strong, gaining share, and benefiting from the return to physical retail, though the digital marketplace remains promotional.
FY2023 Q4 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-06-29)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: FY2023 revenue exceeded $50 B, growing 16.0% for the year (currency-neutral). Q4 revenue grew 5% reported (8% currency-neutral). NIKE Direct grew 18.0% (Digital up 14.0%, Stores up 24.0%). Wholesale grew 2.0%, moderating as planned. Total retail sales across the marketplace were up double digits. Inventory is healthy, flat year-over-year in value and down in units. Gross margin declined 140 basis points to 43.6%, primarily due to higher product input costs, elevated freight/logistics, higher markdowns, and 100 basis points of negative FX impact.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The Consumer Direct Acceleration (CDA) strategy is working, driving competitive separation. Digital share reached 26.0% in FY2023. Membership is key, with repeat buying members growing at a high double-digit pace. Management announced senior leadership shifts, elevating Heidi O'Neill and Craig Williams to Co-Presidents of the NIKE Brand to streamline efforts across product, brand, and marketplace. The company is increasing investment in innovation and focusing on key growth areas: Global Football (up 25.0% in FY2023), Basketball (strong signature portfolio), Jordan Brand (record year, mid-30s growth), and Running (up roughly 10.0% in footwear).
Business Segment Performance: North America Q4 revenue grew 5.0% (wholesale declined 3.0% due to reduced sell-in). EMEA Q4 revenue grew 7.0% (Direct up 28.0%). Greater China Q4 revenue grew 25.0%, returning to double-digit growth, with the strongest product sell-through in eight seasons. APLA Q4 revenue grew 6.0% (including a 6 percentage point headwind from the distributor model shift in Central/South America).
Macro & Industry Environment: The marketplace remains highly promotional. Management is closely monitoring the macro environment and consumer behavior but is confident in NIKE's position of strength, having returned to healthy inventory levels ahead of the competition.
Guidance & Outlook: FY2024 reported revenue is expected to grow mid-single digits, led by NIKE Direct. This includes approximately 4 points of non-comp headwinds from prior-year shipment timing and liquidation. Gross margins are expected to expand 140 to 160 basis points (approximately 200 basis points operational expansion, excluding 50 basis points negative FX impact). This recovery is driven by lower ocean freight rates (starting halfway through Q2 FY2024) and modest markdown improvement. SG&A is expected to grow slightly above revenue (high end of mid-single digits). Q1 revenue is expected to be flat to up low single digits, reflecting the decision to tighten first-half buys.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: The rationale behind re-engaging with certain wholesale partners (e.g., Macy's), the sustainability of brand momentum and market share gains, the recovery timeline for transitory cost headwinds, and the long-term margin targets.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the re-engagement with certain wholesale partners after previous deemphasis. Management clarified that the marketplace strategy remains consistent: prioritizing Direct/Digital while using wholesale to provide access across different segments and price points (e.g., neighborhood authenticators, accounts serving distinct segments). The recent shifts are an evolution, not a change in strategy. Analysts also pressed on the timing of the 350 basis points of transitory cost recovery. Management confirmed the recovery begins in FY2024, with freight benefits accelerating in Q3/Q4 FY2024 and carrying into FY2025. Liquidation recovery is planned modestly due to the promotional environment.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: NIKE's digital advantage is a key competitive separation, with mobile apps receiving over 500 M visitors in Q4. The NIKE Well Collective initiative is a branding and retail approach focused on the women's consumer, integrating sport, wellness, community, and style. In China, the recovery is strong, driven by the return of sport, hyperlocal execution, and the advantage of 6,000 mono-brand doors. The long-term goal of high-teens operating margin remains achievable, though the exact timing is difficult to predict due to FX volatility.
FY2023 Q3 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2023-03-21)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q3 revenue grew 14.0% reported (19.0% currency-neutral), exceeding plan. Growth was broad-based: Digital grew 24.0%, and Wholesale grew 18.0%. Inventory dollars are down sequentially, with year-over-year growth at 16.0%. Gross margin declined 330 basis points to 43.3%, driven by higher markdowns, increased product input costs, elevated freight/logistics, and 140 basis points of negative FX impact. Diluted EPS was $0.79.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: The Consumer Direct Acceleration (CDA) strategy continues to unlock growth by leveraging consumer insights to fuel innovation, brand engagement, and marketplace execution. Management highlighted the use of insights in Running (Invincible 3, Pegasus Trail 4), Basketball (LeBron 20, new signature shoes like Sabrina 1 and Tatum 1), and the Air Max franchise (Air Max Pulse, Design by Japan Air Max 1 '87). Decisive actions on inventory are working, and the company is confident it will exit the year with healthy inventories.
Business Segment Performance: North America Q3 revenue grew 27.0% currency-neutral (Direct up 23.0%, Digital up 25.0%). EMEA Q3 revenue grew 26.0% currency-neutral (Direct up 39.0%, Digital up 43.0%). Greater China Q3 revenue grew 1.0% currency-neutral (declined 8.0% reported), rebounding strongly in January/February after December's COVID disruptions. APLA Q3 revenue grew 15.0% currency-neutral.
Macro & Industry Environment: The environment is characterized by increasing macro volatility, but NIKE's brand distinction and CDA strategy set it apart. Consumer demand remains uniquely strong, fueling unit growth of approximately 10.0%.
Guidance & Outlook: FY2023 reported revenue is now expected to grow high single digits (up from mid-single digits previously), despite approximately 600 basis points of FX headwinds. Q4 revenue is expected to be flat to up low single digits, reflecting strategic reductions in spring/summer wholesale buys to prioritize inventory health. FY2023 gross margin is expected to decline approximately 250 basis points (low end of previous range), reflecting ongoing and accelerated inventory reduction actions. SG&A is expected to grow approximately 10.0%.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: Inventory progress and the timing/magnitude of margin recovery in FY2024, the outlook for China's recovery, and market share acceleration opportunities in key categories (Running, Basketball, Women's).
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts sought quantification of the 350 basis points of transitory cost headwinds (freight/liquidation) expected to recover in FY2024. Management confirmed the recovery would begin in FY2024 but deferred specific guidance until the next call. They emphasized that the decision to cut Q4 wholesale buys was intentional to ensure a healthy inventory exit, even if it moderated near-term revenue growth.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The product pipeline is robust, with major updates planned for the five core road running models over the next 6-18 months, following the successful Invincible 3 launch. Basketball's signature portfolio is the strongest ever, including LeBron, Giannis, KD, Ja, Sabrina, Tatum, and the return of Kobe. In China, momentum accelerated significantly in January and February after December's disruptions, and inventory is now healthy, positioning NIKE for long-term growth. Connected membership with wholesale partners is beginning to bear fruit, driving personalized experiences and mutual profitability.
FY2023 Q2 Earnings Call Summary (Date: 2022-12-20)
Prepared Remarks (PR) Summary:
Overall Performance & Key Metrics: Q2 revenue grew 17.0% reported (27.0% currency-neutral), exceeding expectations. Growth was broad-based: Direct grew 25.0% (Digital up 34.0%), and Wholesale grew 30.0%. North America, EMEA, and APLA all saw over 30.0% currency-neutral growth. Greater China grew 6.0% currency-neutral. Gross margin declined 300 basis points to 42.9%, primarily due to higher markdowns (mainly North America), unfavorable FX, elevated freight/logistics, and increased product input costs. Diluted EPS was $0.85.
Strategic Narrative & Initiatives: Consumer demand is strong, creating separation from competitors. The inventory peak is behind the company. Inventory dollars are down 3.0% sequentially, and units are down high single digits from Q1. The composition is improving, with North America apparel closeout units down mid-teens sequentially. The company proactively reduced H2 buys to prioritize inventory health. The Consumer Direct Acceleration (CDA) strategy is successful, fueled by membership (160 M active members) and digital advantage (34.0% digital growth).
Business Segment Performance: North America Q2 revenue grew 31.0% currency-neutral (Wholesale up 37.0%) with strong holiday results. EMEA Q2 revenue grew 33.0% currency-neutral (Digital up 62.0%), with membership driving over 85.0% of Cyber Week demand. Greater China Q2 revenue grew 6.0% currency-neutral, achieving the goal of returning to inventory health by quarter-end (inventory dollars down 3.0% year-over-year). APLA Q2 revenue grew 34.0% currency-neutral.
Macro & Industry Environment: The marketplace is largely promotional, but NIKE is driving distinction through strong full price realization on top innovation and largest franchises. Macro concerns persist, leading to a cautious approach for H2 planning.
Guidance & Outlook: Full year revenue guidance is raised to low teens currency-neutral (up from low double digits), resulting in mid-single-digit reported growth (due to approximately 700 basis points of FX headwinds). Gross margin is still expected to decline 200 to 250 basis points, reflecting ongoing liquidation actions. Q3 gross margin decline is expected to be similar to Q2 (including 120 basis points negative FX impact). Full year SG&A is expected to increase high single digits.
Question & Answer (QA) Summary:
Key Analyst Themes: The composition of North America growth (footwear vs. apparel), the timeline for inventory normalization, the sustainability of brand momentum, and the path to long-term high-teens EBIT margins.
Challenging Questions & Management Response: Analysts questioned the high wholesale growth (30.0%) given the Direct focus. Management clarified that this was a timing issue, reflecting strong partner demand and earlier supply availability, following six to eight quarters of starving the wholesale channel due to supply constraints. The focus remains on Direct leading growth long-term. Analysts also pressed on the 350 basis points of transitory cost headwinds (freight/liquidation) and their recovery. Management confirmed these are recoverable and are the key to returning to the high-teens EBIT margin target, alongside structural drivers like strategic pricing and D2C mix shift.
Notable Insights & Clarifications: The strong digital growth (34.0%) is driven by the conversion of active members to buying members and increased member buying frequency. In North America, ASPs were up, benefiting from strong footwear performance. In China, the team achieved inventory health by Q2 end, positioning them for strength despite short-term COVID policy uncertainties. The wholesale growth seen in Q2 is considered a peak due to timing implications.
Part 2: Narrative Evolution Overview (Cross-Transcript Synthesis)
Evolution of Strategic Priorities:
The strategic narrative shifted from the broad, growth-focused Consumer Direct Acceleration (CDA) strategy (FY2023) to a highly focused, defensive, and restructuring-oriented approach centered on "Win Now" actions and the "Sport Offense" (FY2024-FY2026).
Phase 1 (FY2023): Inventory Recovery & CDA: Initial focus was on leveraging digital membership, driving broad-based growth (Wholesale and Direct), and recovering from supply chain disruptions by reducing inventory dollars and units. The goal was achieving high-teens EBIT margins driven by D2C mix shift.
Phase 2 (FY2024): Restructuring & Reset: The priority pivoted internally with the announcement of the "Save to Invest" initiative ($2.0 B in savings) and a major organizational restructuring. The core product strategy became the aggressive reduction of classic footwear franchises (Air Force 1, Dunk, Air Jordan 1) to clear marketplace space for new innovation (Speed Lane).
Phase 3 (FY2025-FY2026): Sport Offense & Digital Repositioning: The organizational alignment around sport was completed ("Sport Offense"). The focus narrowed to leading with performance categories (Running is the proof point, growing over 20.0% in FY2026 Q1). Crucially, the Digital channel strategy shifted from maximizing revenue/mix to prioritizing brand health and full-price realization, intentionally accepting double-digit traffic and revenue declines in the near term to reposition the channel for long-term profitable growth.
Recurring Themes & KPIs:
Innovation and Sport Focus: Consistent emphasis on accelerating the multi-year innovation cycle, particularly in Running (Vomero, Pegasus 41) and Basketball, as the primary driver of future growth and brand distinction.
Gross Margin Headwinds: Gross margins were consistently volatile. Initial pressure came from markdowns, elevated freight/logistics, and negative FX (FY2023). Later pressure stemmed from accelerated cleanup actions, liquidation costs, and the increasing impact of tariffs (FY2025 Q3/Q4, FY2026 Q1), which management estimated added $1.5 B in incremental costs.
Greater China Volatility: China was repeatedly cited as a critical long-term opportunity but a persistent near-term challenge, characterized by a highly promotional digital marketplace, soft traffic (declining double digits), and the need for significant investment in store concepts and local product creation.
Channel Mix Tension: The company consistently managed the tension between its long-term Direct focus and the need to stabilize Wholesale. While Direct/Digital was initially the growth engine, the aggressive franchise reset caused Digital revenue to decline double digits, leading management to rely on Wholesale returning to modest growth to offset Direct headwinds.
Inventory Health: Inventory management was a constant focus, moving from a peak (FY2023 Q2) to normalization (FY2024 Q1), and then stabilizing, though management noted inventory remained elevated in composition through FY2025 Q3.
Evolution of Guidance:
Initial Optimism (FY2023): Guidance was generally positive, with FY2023 revenue guidance raised multiple times (from low double digits to high single digits reported), reflecting strong demand and successful inventory management.
The Pivot (FY2024): The outlook decelerated sharply. FY2024 revenue guidance was lowered from mid-single digits to approximately 1.0% growth, reflecting macro uncertainty and the intentional decision to manage down classic franchise supply.
Aggressive Deterioration (FY2025): Guidance for FY2025 saw rapid downward revisions. Initial FY2025 revenue guidance (Q3 FY2024) was down low single digits. This was subsequently reduced to down mid-single digits (Q4 FY2024), and then the company withdrew full-year guidance (Q1 FY2025), replacing it with increasingly negative quarterly forecasts (Q4 FY2025 expected down mid-teens).
Continued Caution (FY2026): The outlook remains cautious, with Q2 FY2026 revenue expected down low single digits. Management explicitly guided that NIKE Direct is not expected to return to growth in FY2026 due to the strategic repositioning of Digital as a full-price business.
Persistent Analyst Concerns:
Timeline and Financial Impact of the Reset: Analysts consistently pressed management on the duration of the classic franchise cleanup phase and the timeline for inventory normalization, particularly the impact on gross margins due to liquidation costs and tariffs.
Long-Term Margin Viability: Repeated questioning regarding the confidence in achieving the long-term high-teens EBIT margin target, given the significant near-term revenue sacrifice and the increased cost headwinds (e.g., the $1.5 B incremental tariff cost).
Digital Channel Health: Persistent scrutiny over the double-digit declines in Digital traffic and revenue, questioning whether the intentional reduction in promotions risked permanently damaging the channel's momentum or losing market share to competitors.
Confidence in H2 Inflection: Analysts frequently challenged management's assertion that meaningful sequential improvement and an inflection point would occur in the second half of FY2025, given the severity of the first-half headwinds.
China Turnaround Strategy: Concerns remained about the structural profitability of the Greater China market and the cost/time required to refresh store concepts and stabilize the highly promotional digital environment.
Part 3: Limitations of Summary
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